Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1238 am EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
warm and humid weather will continue across the region until a
cold front passes on Wednesday night.
Near term /through today/...
no changes were necessary for the midnight update as all precipitation
has faded with front analyzed to be stationary across northern WV.
Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight as temperatures
fall...with more widespread coverage near the frontal zone.
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
ridging will build over the region through Wednesday...and with
height and temperature anomalies around 1-2 Standard deviations
above normal...forecast maximum temperatures are anticipated to be
around 5 to 10 degrees above normal across the region. This
combined with projected dewpoints will result in apparent
temperatures reaching the middle 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. A
cold front will then cross the region Wednesday evening through
Thursday morning...bringing a chance of showers and storms along
with with a little relief in apparent temperatures behind the
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
surface ridging is prognosticated to build in under a weak...broad
eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough. This should keep mainly dry and
seasonally warm weather through much of the period. The trough is
prognosticated to deepen early next week returning rain chances to the
region. Followed close to ensemble based wpc gridded
guidance...smoothing out some operational model differences over
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
with the exception of early morning patchy MVFR fog...VFR
conditions with diurnal cumulus are expected through tonight under
weak surface ridging. An afternoon shower is possible near
mgw...which is closer to a stationary surface boundary...but
chances appear to low for a taf mention.
Outlook...Wednesday through Saturday...
restrictions are possible with a late Wednesday/early Thursday