Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
542 PM EDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
warm weather will continue until a cold front passes on Thursday
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
slow moving area of showers and isolated storms continues to
cover portions of northern WV. As the sun lowers in the
sky...intensity of the rain is slowly decreasing. Will leave in
probability of precipitation to cover the activity through the early evening hours as the
low level convergence will continue. The daytime cumulus will dissipate
with sunset...and passing cirrus overnight will prevent a Crystal
clear sky. Temperatures have been updated with latest guidance.
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday/...
broken record forecast will continue for most of the day on
Wednesday with above average temperatures and a slight chance of
isolated storms popping over the ridges and higher terrain of
northern WV and Maryland. A cold front will pass over the region
overnight Wednesday and exit Thursday morning. Latest forecast
soundings show warm temperatures and weak lapse rates aloft...and
without the additional instability that would come with a daytime
frontal passage...activity along the front will be mainly limited
to scattered showers. Thunderstorms if any will be isolated.
Dry conditions with temperatures closer to normal are expected
behind the front on Thursday and Friday as surface high pressure
builds in and heights aloft decrease in response to a
strengthening western Continental U.S. Ridge.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
surface ridging under a broad eastern Continental U.S. Upper trough should
keep mainly dry and seasonally warm weather through the
weekend...though included unmentionable slight chance probability of precipitation
Saturday as a weakening shortwave crosses. A stronger shortwave is
prognosticated for early next week with better chances for rain. Followed
close to the ensemble based wpc guidance to smooth out individual
model differences through the period.
Aviation /22z Tuesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions with diurnal cumulus and light winds are expected
through tonight under weak surface ridging.
Outlook...Wednesday through Saturday...
restrictions are possible with a late Wednesday/early Thursday