Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
944 am EDT Thursday Oct 23 2014
high pressure will build east and decrease clouds today.
Temperatures will return to near seasonal averages for the
Near term /through tonight/...
minimal change needed this morning as the current forecast aligns
well with latest observational trends. Previous discussion
Breaks in the overcast will become more numerous this morning with
clearing west to east this afternoon. As low pressure shifts
farther off the East Coast today dry high pressure will build
across the region. Clouds will likely stay in the ridges until
late day. Tonight with clear skies and diminishing winds
temperatures will fall well into the 30s. Region has past dates
for any frost or freeze products.
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
models continue to indicate shortwave ridging will push east across
the area Thursday night into Friday with sunshine and a bit milder
temperatures. For the weekend a moisture starved shortwave will
quickly cross the region Saturday with an increase in clouds and
only slight chance probability of precipitation especially north of Pittsburgh. Dry and
breezy Sunday in northwest flow.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
ridging will advance eastward across the region into Erly next weak keeping dry weather in
the forecast. Models differ on timing and strength of a middle weak trough. Generally
sided close to a weaker ensemble/wpc solution...keeping low shower chances
middle weak. Warm advection is expd to bring above seasonal average temperatures Erly next
weak...with a rtn to seasonably cool numbers after the passage of the middle
Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/...
spotty MVFR ceilings will diminish by middle morning as drier air moves
in aloft out of the north. There is a slight chance of patchy MVFR
visiibility restrictions early Friday morning, but in general VFR
conditions are anticipated through thge weekend and into next
Aviation /Friday through Monday/...
patchy MVFR in br is possible Erly Friday morning.