Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
620 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
a series of weather disturbances will bring periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances through Thursday. High pressure will build in
Friday.
&&
Near term /through Monday/...
satellite/mesoscale data shows an upper level wave over central WV. This will continue to
drift slowly eastward through Monday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms S of pit should
quickly dspt after sunset. Near term model data shows potential for
stratus developing areas North-East of pit toward morning as well. Will keep chance probability of precipitation
for showers/thunderstorms mainly east-southeast of pit Monday as the upper WV begins to
exit to the east. Model forecasts show instability should be minimal Monday. Well
above average temperatures forecast for Monday.
&&
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/...
any convection should be dsptg Monday evening as the upper wave continues to
move out. Chance for showers/thunderstorms returns Tuesday afternoon...although some upper
and middle level ridging and lack of a good trigger should help lmt
activity. Temperatures will continue much above average.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the district remains in the warm sector for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain above normal along with
a chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms.A cold front moving
slowly south from the Great Lakes Thursday will bring likely showers
and thunderstorms for late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Behind the cold front Friday the risk of showers will diminish and '
temperatures will drop below normal. Dry weather can be expected for
Friday night into Sunday with temperatures falling into the 40s
for overnight lows Saturday morning.
&&
Aviation /22z Sunday through Friday/...
ceilings will teeter on MVFR/VFR thresholds through the
afternoon...while winds will be gusting above 20 miles per hour. Conditions
improve after sunset with VFR ceilings and light southeast winds. Forecast
challenge is overnight and possible development of stratus across
several terminals. This period continues to be low confidence. Ran
with IFR at duj and fkl...otherwise brought ceilings to MVFR at most
then lift them by 14z. Once any stratus lifts look for VFR weather.
Outlook.../Monday night through Friday/...
highest probability of IFR weather will be Wednesday and Thursday in
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
&&
Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.
&&
$$
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