Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1238 am EST Friday Nov 27 2015
dry and warm today. Rain chances return tonight and continue
through Saturday night with the passage of a cold front. More
seasonal temperatures are expected over the weekend.
Near term /through today/...
just need to deal with the increase in high clouds overnight.
Temperatures look good...so will just require some minor
adjustments with the latest hires data.
Continued southwest flow will maintain warm temperatures and dry
conditions today. Expect the passage of high clouds through most
of the day...with an increase in lower clouds from the northwest
One more day of well above normal temperatures.
Short term /tonight through Sunday/...
the eastward movement of the cold front remains sluggish as the
upper shortwave trough is prognosticated to gradually weaken over the
The front will drag southward and support likely probability of precipitation tonight and
Saturday. Chance probability of precipitation are maintained...mainly over the southern
half of the area...for the rest of the weekend as a split flow
pattern will allow for The Crossing of a series of shortwaves north
of the stalled boundary.
Post frontal temperatures will trend closer to seasonal levels.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
model solutions are in good agreement pertaining to the
progression of a deep cutoff low pressure across the central US
moving to the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. The long
term forecast is of initially warm temperatures and likely probability of precipitation
with a subsequent cooling to near seasonal averages after passage
of that system's cold front. The guidance blend was used in
construction of the long term forecast.
Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
general VFR until 00z Saturday when approaching cold front will
deteriorate conditions from northwest to southeast. Expect IFR
ceilings in light rain to work into kfkl and kduj by 05z
Saturday...with ceilings approaching IFR at kpit by 09z Saturday.
Outlook...Saturday through Tuesday/...
widespread restrictions Saturday morning will improve from north
to south later Saturday as cold front sinks south.
Restrictions are possible with an approaching low pressure system
later Monday through Tuesday.