Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
114 am EDT Friday may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
dry and cool weather can be expected for the weekend. 


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Near term /through tonight/... 
showers continue to diminish in coverage in the wake of the evening cold front 
and precipitation forecast has been reduced to scattered coverage into...and 
through the morning as colder air flows over the region undr a 
relatively low inversion low level. That portion will will maintain some 
stratocu today...but ovrall drying will Herald reduced cloud cover as 
the day progresses. 


Intial temperatures were forecast using observation-tweaked lamp guidance while 
tngts cold readings were a result of sref means. For now...have 
forecasted low to middle 30s...but without frost/freeze headlines 
given a lack of duration of sub 32 readings...and expectations of 
sufficient wind to preclude heavy frost formations outside of 
sheltered areas. 


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Short term /Saturday through Sunday/... 


Dry surface high pressure undr northwest flow aloft will maintain cold temperatures 
through the weekend. Expect readings of 10 to 15 degrees undr the 
averages with frost potential again on Saturday night. 


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Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/... 
surface high pressure is expected to maintain dry weather until a warm front 
increases precipitation chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Initially cold temperatures 
will moderate to...and then above seasonal levels as southerly flow resumes 
by middle week. 


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Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/... 
early morning IFR and MVFR St and stratocu ceilings are expected to 
improve as the day progresses with dry advection gradually incrsg T/deep 
spreads despite cold flow. Wind gusts to about 22 kts can be expected 
in the shallow mixing regime. That potential will cease with 
decoupling this evening. 


Outlook.../Saturday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure will maintain VFR through early next week. 


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Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 


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