Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
127 am EDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015
dry and warmer weather is expected today and Wednesday.
Near term /through today/...
only minor changes needed to overnight period. Just some tweaking
of the clouds and an update of temperatures with latest guidance.
A dry northerly flow will ensue today allowing for a decrease in
atmospheric moisture and eventually cloud cover. Temperatures
aloft will remain unseasonably cool...but will modify compared to
what was in place on Monday. With an increase in sunshine and the
absence of monday's cold air...temperatures will warm closer to
Short term /tonight through Thursday/...
weather remains quiet tonight and Wednesday as a weak upper level
ridge slowly moves eastward through the area.
Conditions will quickly deteriorate Thursday as large upper level
system digs into the upper Midwest. Models have been inconsistent
on where and when showers will develop Thursday. Expect many
changes to thursday's forecast.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
model differences and run to run inconsistencies continue to make
the extended a forecast challenge. Majority of the long term will
be dependent on location and eastward movement of large upper
level low. Have continued to lean closer to the European model (ecmwf) which has
shown better run to run consistency.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
high MVFR/low VFR ceilings will persist through the night. Fkl/duj may
see lower MVFR ceilings and some fog late tonight in northwest flow.
Expecting scattered-broken cumulus development starting late morning
Tuesday...with VFR conditions maintained. Gusty winds will
diminish over the next couple of hours...but continue to blow at
5-10 knots through Tuesday. Cl
Outlook.../Tuesday through Saturday/...
the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
Thursday low pressure.