Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
919 PM EDT Wednesday may 22 2013
Synopsis...
shower and thunderstorm chances will continue until a cold front
passes through Thursday evening. High pressure returns for the
weekend.
&&
Near term /through Thursday/...
mesoscale/satellite data shows instability dmnshg across the region...ending the threat
for severe thunderstorms. Still experimental showers and possible thunderstorms overnight as the next
shortwave moves through. A cold front will aprch from the west Thursday bringing
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms. Model forecasts show instability
should be minimal...and this seems reasonable given expd cloud
cover.
&&
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
the cold front will exit the area Thursday night. A lingering upper level trough will
keep the chance for showers across the area Friday...then high pressure builds in
with dry and cool temperatures expd. Patchy frost is possible Friday night as temperatures
drop into the 30s.
&&
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
dry weather is expd through the period with high pressure in control. A
warm front may aprch by middle week but too much uncertainty to include
any precipitation mention at this time. Temperatures will start out below average over the
weekend...then moderate to seasonal levels as high pressure shifts east
of the area and flow turns srly.
&&
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
experimental scattered showers around into the overnight hours as a shortwave moves through...
but genl VFR weather is experimental. A few thunderstorms are possible but covg too low for
taf inclusion at this time. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible Thursday morning before
VFR cumulus/stratocu returns. A cold front will move across the region late Thursday
bringing MVFR showers near or just after the end of the taf period. A thunderstorm
is possible but probability looks low at this time.
Outlook.../Thursday night through Monday/...
restrns are likely in showers Thursday night after frontal passage. High pressure and VFR
conds expd Friday through Monday.
&&
Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.
&&
$$
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