Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
150 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will give decreasing clouds with cooler
temperatures today. Dry weather and warmer Sunday and Columbus
Near term /through tonight/...
surface high over the western Great Lakes will shift east through
the day. Low clouds early this morning will decrease as the
morning progresses as deep drying moves east and low levels mix
out. Sunshine will be on the increase for the afternoon with
temperatures recovering from 60 to 65 outside of the ridges. Clear
and chilly tonight with light winds. This will allow lows into the
lower 40s with temperatures into the 30s in sheltered valleys and
in the ridges. Patchy frost looks possible for the ridge valleys
and will take a closer look for next update.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
surface high will shift east allowing for a quick warm up Sunday
with temperatures middle 60 to lower 70s in warm advection.
Temperatures will warm above normal Monday in strengthening
southwest flow ahead of an approaching middle level shortwave and
associated cold front. Clouds will be on the increase late day
Monday as middle level moisture increases. Front will quickly cross
region Monday night with high chance probability of precipitation. Front will be east of
the ridges by daybreak Tuesday but upper level trough axis will be
moving over the eastern Great Lakes. This will keep some clouds
across the region Tuesday with stray showers along the I-80
corridor and the ridges...with cooler temperatures as well.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
broad upper troughing is prognosticated across much of the eastern Continental U.S.
Through the week with weak reinforcing cold fronts resulting in
seasonally cool temperatures. Precipitation chances will be too low to
mention for the most part as available moisture will be limited.
Followed close to wpc ensemble based guidance to smooth out
minimal model differences through the period.
Aviation /06z Saturday through Wednesday/...
conditions improving as airports transitioning to VFR. This is in
response to very dry air in the lower levels moving southward.
Will go with a general VFR forecast...except for mgw...as it will
take a bit longer for the dry air mass to make it that far south.
Most ports should scatter out as dawn approaches. Expected cold
air advection...should keep a scattered-broken cumulus deck through most of the
Outlook...Saturday through Tuesday...
brief restriction chances return with a Monday night cold front.