Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
300 am EST Friday Dec 26 2014
high pressure will bring dry and mild weather through Saturday. A
cold front will bring the next chance of rain Saturday night and
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
increasing subsidence under building high pressure will continue to erode the stratocu
layer this morning...otherwise mclr skies are expd today with high pressure in
ctrl. Temperatures should average around 10 degree above seasonal levels.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
ridging and warm advection will continue through Sat in advance of an approaching
shortwave. This shortwave and its associated cold front is prognosticated for a Sat
night/sun passage. Maintained likely probability of precipitation for showers with sufficient
moisture and upper spprt prognosticated. Continued precipitation chances into Erly Monday S of pit
as a wave develops along the fnt...which could spread a little more precipitation
into that region. Experimental mainly rain...though a brief change over to snow
showers is possible before precipitation ends. Above seasonal temperatures are expd through
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
the extended will largely be dry with a decreasing trend in
temperatures as a broad trough in the longwave pattern slowly sags
south across the eastern Continental U.S.. there is a slight chance of light snow
showers associated with a shortwave transitioning through the flow
develop mainly along and north of Interstate 80 during the middle
of the week...but moisture appears to be quite limited. Further
out...an area of low pressure previously closed off over the
southwest will eventually impact the region...but models vary
widely in timing of this feature...by a margin of several days.
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
taf sites will improve from MVFR to VFR this morning as drier air
continues to move in from the west...with all sites VFR shortly
Outlook.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
another frontal system will generate the next chance for general
flight restrictions by Sunday.