Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1229 PM EDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will keep conditions dry and temperatures near
normal for the remainder of the work week.
&&
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
stratus has fully mixed out into cumulus over the southeastern
tier of counties around Morgantown. Elsewhere...clear skies
continue outside of a few ridge top cumulus. Sky grids were upped
a bit for the rest of the day owing to fairly slow dry air
advection into the southern tier of counties...however the vast
majority of the County Warning Area still looks dry and pleasant for the day.
Fries
&&
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
high pressure and dry air will maintain a mostly clear sky through
Friday. Temperatures will be near normal.
The European model (ecmwf) has a distinct shortwave approaching the forecast area
late Saturday from the Great Lakes. The GFS keeps the region in a
ridge of high pressure...hence...the well above maximum temperatures
the gfsx MOS guidance is displaying. Therefore...have used HPC
guidance for temperatures and probability of precipitation for Saturday.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
warm and humid conditions are forecast into early next week as
upper level ridge is still projected to build over the southern Continental U.S.
As shortwaves move east in fairly zonal flow across the Great
Lakes. With hard to time shortwaves a forecast of mainly diurnal
showers and storms still will be the best course...until better
shortwave timing can be determined. Temperatures will average
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
scattered showers exiting the ridges by 07z or so with much lower
dew points pushing south under high pressure. Still expect a period
of IFR fog at kmgw where best rain fell Tuesday...with MVFR at khlg
and kzzv. Surface high will keep general VFR through Wednesday
night.
Outlook.../Wednesday through Sunday/...
general VFR conditions are expected under high pressure through
Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms may bring restrictions Sunday.
&&
Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.
&&
$$
