Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
918 PM EDT sun Oct 4 2015
most of the upcoming week will be dry with seasonable
Near term /through Monday/...
deep easterly flow that has kept abundant moisture in the lower
half of the column has finally waned and allowed for a breakup of
the stratocumulus over most of the area...save for the
ridges...where weakening easterly flow is still allowing for some
easterly upslope. However...even here as low level flow becomes
even weaker on Monday and moisture erodes east of the ridges as
flow there becomes more northerly...the likelihood of upslope
clouds persisting decreases through the day.
The reduction in clouds will finally allow for some amount of
diurnal temperature trending. Overnight with dewpoints likely to
come down a few degrees...most areas will drop into the 40s. By
the daytime on Monday...abundant sunshine should allow for lower
elevations temperatures to at least make a run at 70 degrees.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/...
dry and mild through the period with temperatures pushing into the
70s from Pittsburgh south and west as middle level ridge attempts to
shunt east from the Central Plains. A shortwave will flatten the
middle level flow Wednesday as a weak front washes out across the
eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a slight increase in clouds
and drop maximum temperatures a couple degrees for Wednesday.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
heights will rise aloft in a developing zonal flow through the
week. Temperatures will warm above average. A cold front will
approach Friday...providing our next chance for rain. Cooler
temperatures for the weekend.
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
MVFR stratocumulus has remained across eastern reaches of the
forecast area...with lower ceilings still around duj/lbe/agc.
Think that the stratocumulus should dissipate by midnight...but
considering its persistence throughout the daytime hours...would
not be surprised if it took longer than that to go away.
Elsewhere...only high clouds remain this evening. Although it is
not reflected in the current tafs...would not be surprised if some
MVFR fog is able to develop at several sites overnight if winds
manage to go calm. For now...still think that winds will remain at
least 3-5 kts...which should prevent fog from forming. VFR
conditions and light winds are expected on Monday.
Outlook...Monday night through Friday...
general VFR can be expected through midweek until a cold front
brings the chance for restrictions Thursday night and Friday.