Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
412 am EDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will remain in control through Friday morning. A
weak system will then pass to our north Friday night.

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Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a combination of a surface high to our east and rising heights
aloft...will allow for plenty of sunshine and moderating
temperatures.

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Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday/...
upper level ridge will remain in control through Friday morning.
A moisture starved cool front and short wave trough will swing
through Friday afternoon. Model continue to trend downward on
precipitation chances. Main upper level support within the height falls
shifts well north of the area Friday evening. Moisture at the
lowest layers is sparse and the surface boundary loses much of its
structure with little support. Have decided to keep the area dry
with this feature. Temperatures continue to moderate Friday.

A bit of a cool down Friday night and Saturday...as weak cold air advection will
take place behind the cool front. Surface high will build in
quickly on Saturday...keeping the area dry with plenty of
sunshine.

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Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
a dry and warm pattern expected through much of the long term. A
weak cold front and associated low pressure will bring the risk
for showers Tuesday. A bit of a cool down by the end of the long
term.

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Aviation /08z Thursday through Monday/...
although VFR will continue with high pressure cntred over the northestern Continental U.S....light
Ely surface wind will veer to the southeast today and increases toward 10 kts as low pressure
digs over the western lakes.

Outlook.../Friday through Sunday/...
the next chance of rstrns will come with the advance and passage of a Friday
night cold front.

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Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.

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