Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
954 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014
upper low pressure should continue to push east...allowing a high to
build in...resulting in dry and warm weather into the weekend. A
cold front may bring a few showers to the area late this weekend.
Near term /through Thursday/...
10pm update...still wrestling with cloud cover. Large hole has
developed over portions of Ohio/wpa. However this has closed back
in quickly to the north. Will still continue with a cloudy
Upper low...centered off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast...will move northeast
through the period. As this system pushes away...models indicate
surface high pressure will nose in.
As a result...precipitation chances will continue to diminish...with
most locations dry before sunrise on Thursday.
Used a blend of met/mav guidance for temperatures tonight and Thursday.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
models continue to indicate shortwave ridging will push east across
the area Thursday night into Friday. A shortwave will then push
across Friday into Friday night. Some of the models indicate spotty
precipitation with this feature...and have slight chance probability of precipitation across
northwest PA on Friday.
Models then indicate a cold front will push southeast into the
region on Saturday. After dry weather Friday night...have
re-introduced slight chance probability of precipitation across the northern zones for
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
ridging across the central Continental U.S. Will move to the eastern Continental U.S. Through Erly
next weak keeping dry weather in the forecast. A weakening trough is prognosticated for a
middle weak passage as the ridge shifts east. Seasonally cool weekend temperatures
are experimental to increase to above average levels by Erly next weak.
Aviation /02z Thursday through Monday/...
widespread MVFR ceilings will linger overnight under continued
cyclonic flow. Clouds will slowly erode from west to east after
12z Thursday...after which VFR conditions will rule. Cannot rule
out a few sites scattering out earlier than currently expected as
dry air tries to intrude from the north...but feel that clouds
will hold on tough. North/northwest winds will slacken off this evening.
Aviation /Thursday through Sunday/...
no widespread restrictions are expected.