Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
634 PM EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected through the
week. Rain chances increase Friday night with the passage of a
Near term /through Thursday/...
630 PM...some updates to sky grids to bring in high clouds sooner.
No other changes at this time.
Broad middle-Atlantic upper ridging is expected to help continue
southwest flow tonight and keep temperatures warmer than previous
nights...approximately 7 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels.
Forecast temperatures were adjusted based on GFS/NAM MOS guidance.
Short term /Thursday night through Saturday/...
dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue through
Friday via southwest flow. The model-depicted eastward progession
of the cold front has slowed further as the shortwave is prognosticated
to slowly cross the Great Lakes in the latest runs. Thus...probability of precipitation
and temperatures have been adjusted in anticipation of the
The cold front is expected to lower temperatures to near normal
again for Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
entire long term forecast remains problematic as run to run model
inconsistency and differences in final solutions continue to
hamper the forecast. Timing of the exiting front Saturday and the
timing and track of the next system for Sunday-Tuesday provide a
low confidence forecast. It does appear that there will be
precipitation Sunday through Tuesday...but when and where remains
uncertain. Will try to find a Happy medium...but would expect
many changes to this time period as the week progresses.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR and light southeast...to S surface wind can be expected as high pressure
completes a slide across the region.
Outlook...Thursday night through Sunday/...
the next chance for restrictions will be with a late Friday/early
Saturday cold front.