Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
405 am EDT Friday Aug 28 2015
warmer weather can be expected for the weekend as high pressure
builds. Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday with a weak
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
rising heights and surface high pressure will provide plentiful
sunshine with a few diurnal cumulus. Temperatures will rise to
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
benign conditions will continue into Saturday while southwest
flow ahead of an approaching shortwave will promote increasing
temperatures and moisture. Will keep in late day probability of precipitation in the west
to account for diurnal showers and possible thunderstorms as the
shortwave approaches and greater instability becomes prevalent.
The risk for showers and storms again Sunday as another shortwave
approaches and weak surface boundary sinks southward. With timing
of both...it appears best chance will be later in the afternoon.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
weak frontal boundary will exit early Monday. A return to dry and
warmer weather is expected next week.
Aviation /08z Friday through Tuesday/...
most cloud cover has dissipated. Mostly clear skies will be the
rule through the taf period...with perhaps a few thin cirrus
during the daylight hours. The only issue is fog potential. With
expected low temperatures hovering around or just under crossover
temperatures...plus a drier ground than normal...the forecast is
tricky. Think that IFR with tempo LIFR is likely at the usual
sites like zzv...hlg...and fkl/duj. In general...MVFR and
possible brief IFR is expected elsewhere. Fog will burn off by
midmorning...with VFR conditions and light winds forecast for the
afternoon and evening.
Outlook...Friday night through Tuesday...
no extensive IFR is expected...although brief restrictions in
scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are possible over the weekend.