Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
107 am EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
warm...humid conditions and sparse rain chances are expected
through the upcoming week.
Near term /through today/...
warm air aloft will limit activity tomorrow...however...a
disturbance approaching from the south along the backside of the
Bermuda high may be enough to initiate scattered showers/storms south of
Pittsburgh. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees
Short term /tonight through Wednesday/...
ridging and warm air capping should keep mainly dry weather across
the area Monday night through Tuesday night. Another weak
shortwave prognosticated to advance across the upper Ohio Valley region
should bring slight to low chances for showers/storms Wednesday.
Temperatures should continue averaging 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal levels using tweaked GFS and sref guidance.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
no changes to the overall pattern are expected...with the eastern
ridge holding firm. With the ridge axis still to the west on
Thursday...an areawide slight chance still looks appropriate. The
sprawling upper high will drift eastward with time though...such
that the ridges would be favored mainly for diurnal activity for
Friday and Saturday. By Sunday...with the center of the ridge just
to the east...an improved moisture feed may support activity
areawide once again. Little organization is foreseen throughout
the extended period...with overall precipitation totals remaining
fairly low. Above normal temperatures in the 80s to around 90 will
be featured each day.
Aviation /05z Monday through Friday/...
areas of mfvr and some IFR fog should develop overnight with low
level moisture in place and weak flow. This should burn off
toward 14z. Winds will be light and variable.
Outlook...Monday night through Friday... general VFR except for
patchy morning fog the remainder of the week.