Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1056 PM EDT sun Mar 16 2014
low pressure will bring snow south of Pittsburgh into
Monday...otherwise high pressure will build in early in the week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
updt to upgrade Tucker County WV to a Winter Storm Warning. Generally
getting 5-7 inch repeats after band of snow passed through. More is just to
the SW so increased accums to 7-12. Minor adjustments to the north of
Snow continues S of the PA border as surface low pressure tracks across the southeastern
Continental U.S.. at this time best 700 mb frontogenisis grazes Tucker County...and
model forecasts show this should continue tonight. Will keep a genl 7-12 inches
in this area...with much lesser amts north and west. Dry NE flow north of
the PA border should keep much of the snow to the S...though a period
of light snow is possible S of a Wheeling to Washington line. Experimental a wide
range of temperatures tonight...with around 10 degree far north of pit where skies
begin to clear...to lower 20s S with snw/clds.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday/...
the system will begin to pull out Monday morning...ending snowfall
by midday. High pressure should keep the region quiet later Monday
night and Tuesday. Strong warm advection should allow for
temperatures to rebound to above seasonal averages by Tuesday.
As low pressure moves northeast from the northern plains into
Ontario...a cold front will cross the region Wednesday. Although low
level lapse rates and wind shear would be favorable for thunderstorm
development...a cap around 700mb still appears to be a limiting
factor. Some gusty winds could still be possible with the showers
along the front. Have maintained likely probability of precipitation with the front.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal in advance of
the cold front.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
behind Wednesday/S system...weather appears quiet through Friday
before another system crosses the Ohio Valley. It appears that a low
pressure system may strengthen as it moves east of the Great Lakes
and approaches New England. Have made a slight increase to probability of precipitation
during this time period. By Saturday night the system will have
cleared the region...and high pressure should push into the northern
plains. Temperatures should be normal to slightly above normal
through much of the time period...with northerly winds on Sunday
dropping temperatures back a few degrees below normal.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
surface low pressure tracking across the southeastern Continental U.S. Will spread MVFR conds in
snow for ports S of the PA border...with VFR conds experimental elsewhere. The
low will exit the East Coast Monday...ending the snow with VFR conds expd
for all area ports.
Outlook.../Monday night through Friday/...
VFR conds expd until rstrns rtn with the passage of a Wednesday cold front.
Maryland...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for mdz001.
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for wvz041.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for wvz023.