Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
744 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will give increasing sunshine with cooler
temperatures today. Dry and warmer Sunday and Columbus day.
Near term /through tonight/...
no major changes were needed for the dawn update.
surface high over the western Great Lakes will shift east through
the day. Sunshine will be on the increase for the afternoon with
temperatures recovering into the 60s outside of the ridges. Clear
and chilly tonight with light winds. This will allow lows into the
lower 40s with temperatures into the 30s in sheltered valleys and
in the ridges. Patchy frost added to the West Virginia ridges and
Garrett County Maryland as dew points into the middle 30s with a good
radiation night looks to allow some frost to form.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
surface high will shift east allowing for a quick warm up Sunday
with temperatures middle 60s to lower 70s in warm advection.
Temperatures will warm further Monday in strengthening southwest
flow ahead of an approaching middle level shortwave and associated
cold front. Clouds will be on the increase late day Monday as middle
level moisture increases. Front will quickly cross region Monday
night with high chance probability of precipitation. Front will be east of the ridges by
daybreak Tuesday but upper level trough axis will be moving over
the eastern Great Lakes. This will keep some clouds across the
region Tuesday with stray showers along the I-80 corridor and the
ridges...with much cooler temperatures as well.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
broad upper troughing is prognosticated across much of the eastern Continental U.S.
Through the week with weak reinforcing cold fronts resulting in
seasonally cool temperatures. Precipitation chances will be too low to
mention for the most part as available moisture will be limited.
Followed close to wpc ensemble based guidance.
Aviation /11z Saturday through Wednesday/...
expect VFR with a scattered-broken cumulus deck in the cold to neutral advection
regime over the region.
Outlook...Saturday through Tuesday...
brief restriction chances return with a Monday night cold front.