Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
319 am EDT Sat Aug 30 2014
showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous later tonight and
Sunday with increasing humidity.
Near term /through tonight/...
warm advection and increasing humidity today as ridge axis
surface and aloft shifts east. Dew points will push back well into
the 60s late day with temperatures in the 80s. Only slight chance
probability of precipitation this afternoon with some early day low level capping to
overcome and warm middle levels in the afternoon.
Shortwave and upper level trough moving east will will provide
lift for widespread showers and storms especially after midnight
tonight. Warm and muggy with lows in the 60s.
Short term /Sunday through Tuesday/...
likely probability of precipitation maintained into Sunday as shortwave moves across
region. As shortwave exist showers will decrease northwest to
southeast Sunday night. Monday will be warm and humid with only
scattered showers and storms in low level instability but no real
upper level support. By Tuesday fairly strong upper level trough
and cold front will approach with likely probability of precipitation especially by
afternoon. Continued warm and quite humid ahead of the front.
Long term /Tuesday night through Friday/...
showers and thunderstorms will linger Tuesday night as cold front
pushes east. High pressure moves over the East Coast Wednesday...and
should manage to deflect precipitation associated with a cold front
to the north until at least Friday. Cold front could get close
enough by Friday afternoon to bring at least an isolated shower to
western areas. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal.
Aviation /07z Saturday through Wednesday/...
scattered cumulus is expected at all terminals this afternoon...and
cannot rule out some scattered convection west of duj and pit.
Chance for precipitation is too low to include in tafs at this time.
Southerly winds could present crosswind issues at some
airports...especially with the chance for 15-20 knots gusts to develop.
Widespread precipitation is expected with an approaching cold
front...but precipitation is not expected at terminals until at least 06z