Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
Fairly high confidence in the short time frame...at least through
the rest of the Holiday weekend. Stalled out frontal boundary now
from close to the Kentucky/Tennessee border west through the MO bootheel will
remain nearly stationary tonight into Sunday as it gradually
washes out. At the same time...high pressure be be slowly building
in the middle/upper levels of the atmosphere. Will leave some slight
chance probability of precipitation down close to the frontal boundary tonight/Sunday just in
case an isolated storm makes it north of the Tennessee border...but
expect most of the forecast area will remain precipitation free for the
rest of the weekend. Temperatures will also trend warmer as we
head through the short term...with MOS locations getting into the
upper half of the 80s Sunday and close to 90 on Monday. Another
cold front will begin to approach the region by later Monday
night/Tuesday so will need to increase non severe thunderstorm chances a
bit at time time. Diurnal nature of the chances and weak shear values
should preclude much of a severe threat through into Tuesday...though
a few strong storms may be possible by Tuesday afternoon depending
on the level on instability that can be generated.
Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
The extended forecast pattern will largely be one of persistence...
with little change to the milder and wetter than normal pattern thus
far this Summer. The period starts out with better than average
forecast confidence given good model agreement. However...forecast
confidence deteriorates to lower than average by the end of the week
with much more model variability.
By middle week...showers and thunderstorms appear likely across much
of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front
stalls across the lower Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys. The
main concern during this time appears to be heavy
rain...especially across portions of southeast Missouri...southern
Illinois...and southwest Indiana.
The stalled frontal boundary will waiver across the area before
retreating back to the north as a warm front Thursday into Friday.
It stands to reason that the greatest potential for showers and
storms will be in close proximity to the frontal boundary.
Unfortunately...models are not in the best agreement as to the
southward progression of the boundary and how long it takes the
front to retreat northward. Given this uncertainty...the end result
is a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms on and off
By next weekend...a large upper level high over the southern United
States will attempt to build northward. This should act to shift the
better chance of showers and thunderstorms north of the immediate
forecast area...with the best chance locally along and north of
A continuation of the milder than normal weather pattern will start
the extended with highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday and
Thursday. Highs by Friday and Saturday will moderate into the upper
80s to near 90 as warmer air aloft builds northward. Lows will warm
from the upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday nights into the lower 70s
by Thursday and Friday nights.
issued at 628 am CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
A quasi-stationary frontal boundary is expected to remain just
south of the kcgi/kpah sites. Could be MVFR ceilings for awhile this
PM... and possibly could see IFR ceilings/visibilities develop in the late
night hours. Winds will be light/variable.