Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Update...
issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

Updated aviation section.

&&

Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 322 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

A mid level shrtwv trof moving ewd across the upper Midwest is
forecast to shear out this weekend as it impinges on a dominant
sern Continental U.S. Ridge. As a result, deep flow over the pah forecast
area will remain srly/swrly, drawing Gulf moisture into our
region. This, combined with instability, will allow shower and
tstm activity to become common today, especially in the wrn half
of the region. As the main trof axis approaches Sat night/Sunday,
a sfc wave may develop just ahead of it, making showers/tstms most
likely in the sern half of the region, and possibly producing some
heavier rainfall rates especially in the pennyrile region of Kentucky.
Precipitable water figures are expected to be in excess of two
inches across most of the area. However, at this time, a Flash Flood Watch
does not seem warranted, based on current flash flood guidance.

With the passage of what's left of the trof axis Sunday afternoon,
pcpn should wane from west to east, leaving Sunday night mostly
dry with partly cloudy skies.

By Mon, another shrtwv trof moving through the Great Lakes region is
progged to push a sfc cold front into the Central Plains. Just
ahead of the trof axis, there may be enough lift for some
convective activity to develop mainly in the nrn half of our
region in the afternoon.

While lows will remain mostly in the lower 70s, highs will be
noticeably cooler for the next couple of days due to pcpn and
cloud cover. Mid 80s will be common over the weekend, before
rebounding a bit by Mon.

Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 322 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, a
developing frontal system will enter our northern and western
counties, as a long wave trof drops down across the upper MS
valley. The boundary then lays out across the area Tuesday, and
GOES quasi-stationary, before returning as a warm sector boundary,
Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, pops range from the mid
to high chance category thru Wednesday.

After that, broader high pressure over the southern U.S. Results
in sufficient height rises in our area to diminish daily pops to a
slgt chance mention, particularly for the heat of the day
possibility of storms, through Thursday. Friday sees the high
effectively silence pops out of mention, though an isolated chance
possibility cannot be completely ruled out.

Temps look to hold near Summer like values within just a few
degrees of 90 and 70 for highs and lows through the entire
extended portion of the forecast.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a kevv-kjbr line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. Visibility restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the south-southwest
should average about 5 kts.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations