Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
244 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 234 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
The front producing severe weather to our west stays...for the
most part...to our west today and tonight. Its outflow may set off
a shower or storm chance for our northwestern fringes by
tonight...otherwise the upper ridge should hold another 12-24 hours.
Tuesday and Tuesday night is a different story. Frontogenetic
forcing over MO/Arkansas develops as upper low/height falls occur in the
upper Midwest. The resultant cold front will be driven eastward
into the pah forecast area...with an upper jet streak providing upper level
divergence enhancing upward vertical motion fields. The front
looks to actually make a push into the forecast area by 12z Wednesday and the
associated pre frontal line of storms should precede it...so peak
probability of precipitation likely or better by Tuesday night-continuing into Wednesday
still appears to be the best chance time period for storms. Swody2
outlooks nearly the entire area for slight risk severe accordingly.
The upper low rounds a broader trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes
Wednesday-Wednesday night and ultimately drives the front to our east as
height falls migrate southward into the lower Ohio Valley. Continued
precipitation chances will accompany this system passage through the Wednesday night
time period.
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 234 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
The period will start off with a continued slight chance for showers
and thunderstorms as a middle level trough and surface cold front make
passage on Thursday. Beyond that...high pressure ridging at the
surface and aloft will ensure dry conditions through the remainder
of the week. Milder temperatures will take hold by Friday and
Saturday...as readings remain below seasonal norms. A return to
southerly low level flow will Herald a warming trend...increased
humidity...and at least a slight chance of a shower or storm by
Sunday. However...the presence of the middle level ridge is likely to
inhibit much more than isolated to widely scattered coverage through
the end of the period.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 234 am CDT Monday may 20 2013
VFR ceilings may work into the region today from west to east. Slys
will pick up today and include some diurnal gustiness. Precipitation
chances too low to mention today but may creep into prob30
mentionables by evening...particularly for kcgi...with
accompanying potential visibility drops to MVFR in -tsra.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
