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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
617 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Update...
issued at 617 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Aviation update.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Monday night)
issued at 138 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Warm/moist environ for storms to develop/dissipate/redevelop in
afternoon heat...but no strong dynamical energy means mainly pulse
and line segments sub severe with heavy rain primary focus. Cannot
rule out an isolated wind gust however.

This high pop regime will continue into the evening hours upper
low opens out on its move across middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
River valleys and drives cold front through for passage. By
midnight/thereafter...should see drier air working in from behind
front...as it shifts east.

Another lobe of energy does lift across mean upper trough and through
our area tmrw...so we'll have to linger probability of precipitation through Sunday...but
they'll be on the downtick in comparison.

Highs in the 80s will be moving into the 70s for Sunday-Monday as
lows in the 60s recently nudge down into the 50s as well.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 250 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Model run-to-run consistency has become poor. The 12z runs of the
European model (ecmwf)/GFS/GFS ensemble mean have all slowed the eastward progression
of the weak upper trough. Based on the latest runs...the trough will
linger across the Ohio Valley through Thursday. At the surface...the
models now indicate a weak inverted trough will extend northeast
across the lower Ohio Valley through middle week. The models keep the
low level flow very weak until Friday...when they indicate south to
southwest low level flow will develop.

As a result...the forecast is a bit wetter late in the
period...especially Thursday through Saturday. The forecast will
contain slight chance probability of precipitation starting on Thursday. The models indicate
moisture pooling will occur along the inverted surface trough
Thursday. Once the trough moves out...there is some potential for
convective activity to propagate east or southeast through the weak
and broad upper ridge Friday and Saturday.

With the slower movement of the trough...the models have trended a
bit cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the middle 70s
Tuesday and around 80 Wednesday. After the trough moves out...high
temperatures will gradually rise through the 80s. Overnight lows will also
creep upward as dew points slowly rise.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 617 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Middle level circulation moving northeast across the region late
today. Showers will continue this evening in close proximity to
the upper system with variable visibilities and ceilings expected...at times
into the MVFR and possibly IFR categories. Overnight the models
depict abundant low level moisture resulting in low ceilings...and
possibly some light fog/drizzle with winds having a northwest
component area wide. Ceilings should slowly improve Sunday. However
will only improve bases to MVFR category for now.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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