Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
459 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Update...
issued at 458 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance.

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Short term...(tonight through Tuesday night)
issued at 251 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

A slow moving mid level trof and associated cold front will make
their way east into the MS River Valley later Monday and Monday
night. Low level convergence along the front looks weak, and the
mid lvl trof should remain slightly positively tilted as it comes
into the region. Tho I believe many areas will see some shower and
sct thunderstorm activity, strong thunderstorm and heavy rain
potential looks low at this time. However, would not be surprised
if some areas get a quarter inch or so of rain. Continued to lean
closer to the lighter European model (ecmwf)/Gem blend for quantitative precipitation forecast. Sunshine and
pleasant temperatures in the 70s should return Tue as high
pressure pushes southeast into the Great Lakes region.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 251 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

High pressure will move farther east Wednesday, with dry weather
still the rule. An upper level disturbance will move across the
area thur/thur night and bring the region a decent chance of
shra/tsra. This system may have a bit more of a negative tilt, so
will not rule out the potential for some stronger storms Thu
afternoon/evening. However, it looks as tho the main mid lvl
forcing may stay north of our area. The system should be out of
here by later Thu night. European model (ecmwf)/GFS timing remain similar with the
system's departure. Will keep conditions dry til Saturday night.
Only slight chances Sat night. GFS a bit more robust with moisture
and quantitative precipitation forecast. Will be looking at higher pops again Sunday with the
approach of the next short wave. Temps were mostly a blend of
latest MOS guidance, which were in decent agreement. Some
locations may push 80 degrees in between systems Thu/Fri
afternoons.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 458 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Warm air advection continues with light southerlies and increasing
mid and high cover, that should lower with time during the
daylight hours tmrw as the next rain maker approaches.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$