Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
627 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Update...
issued at 621 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Updated for aviation forecast discussion.
&&
Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 242 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Middle level short wave drifting slowly eastward through MO will continue to
spawn scat to numerous shower/thunderstorm activity this evening
and overnight as a surface wave forms over Arkansas and drifts east into
Tennessee. This short wave and surface feature will be quite slow to move
this evening into the overnight hours. Thus...locally heavy
rainfall remains a possibility. Thunderstorm clusters may actually
propagate from southeast to northwest over the same locations at times. As the
night progresses...the greatest heavy rain threat should shrink to
our S/southeast areas...closest to the surface boundary.
Another middle level short wave will move southeast toward the region on
Tuesday. However...this wave should be much more moisture starved
with little or no low level forcing /sfc boundary/. Thus...not
expecting near the coverage or intensity of precipitation on
Tuesday that has been experienced today.
High pressure and drier conditions will become much more established
by the middle week time frame and temperatures should remain close to
seasonal norms.
Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 242 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Confidence continues to increase on a generally rainfree...yet
warming time period.
Middle level ridging over the southern and Central Plains during the
latter part of the work week will eventually migrate eastward into
the Mississippi River valley by Sat. This will most likely lead to a
rainfree period right through the weekend. However...as the ridge
shifts closer to US...especially next weekend...we will undergo a
noticeable return to heat and humidity. Expect high temperatures into the
lower 90s next weekend...with heat indices likely topping out near
the century mark both days.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 621 PM CDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Plenty of lingering convection out there early this
evening...mainly across the kcgi/kevv/kowb terminals. Confidence
is low on how long this activity will continue into the
evening...but given convective trends and loss of daylight here in
a few hours...would believe the storms will die off within the
next 2-3 hours. Models pass a surface low to our south later this
evening...and this could spark some activity that could impact
kpah...but will wait until we see how things evolve early this
evening before going too out on a limb beyond about 03z. The
atmosphere tends to dry out with time during the early morning hours
on Tuesday...so VFR conditions should prevail. Concerned with fog
after all this rain...however cloud cover and a light breeze may
be enough to inhibit formation. Will assess in greater detail with
the 06z tafs.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
