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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
149 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Supercells are expected to develop across far eastern MO into
southern Illinois in the 19-21z time frame with large hail and a few tornadoes
possible. Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery indicate
an alignment of favorable factors suggesting a high likelihood of
severe storms across a large portion of the forecast area...especially
along/east of the MS river.

Strong heating is resulting in destabilization beneath cool
temperatures aloft associated with the upper vorticity maximum/shear axis.
Visible satellite shows cumulus fields increasing across central/E-cntrl
MO where the warmest temperatures exist. Meanwhile...a gradual
breakup of clouds is underway along the warm front...and dewpoints
will continue to rise into the lower 60s.

Elevated convection is already developing SW of St. Louis and should
only increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon. Multiple
supercells are then expected to trek eastward then southeastward along a surface
frontal boundary...with a couple tornadoes possible in addition
to large hail.

Once the surface low and front moves east of the region later this
evening...a nice spell of weather should finish out much of the
rest of the short term forecast as high pressure settle in over
the northern plains/Midwest. May be a bit chilly at night
sun/Mon..with temperatures down into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
However...daytime temperatures should end up well into the 60s.

Long term...(tuesday night through saturday)
issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

European model (ecmwf) shows a weak front moving across the region Wednesday into
Wednesday evening, producing very minor qpf, but both GFS and the
Canadian keep US dry for this period. Prefer to go with the dry
solutions for now.

Models then show surface high pressure building across the
Mississippi Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday, being
reinforced by an upper level ridge building over the central U.S. By
the end of the work week into the weekend. This will keep
conditions dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will be a
little below seasonal Wednesday and seasonal Thursday, then trend
a little warmer each day Friday into Saturday as winds shift back
to the south.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...meffert
long term...rst

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