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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
247 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 247 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

Precipitation and cloud cover will continue to decrease from the
west with the departure of a storm system and attendant cold front.

The center of the high pressure area slowly overspreading the region
in the wake of this system will track to just north and east of our
region by the end of the short term period. This track puts our County Warning Area
on the western fringes of the high pressure area.

As a result..a couple of rounds of upper level energy diving
southeast out of the plains across southern Missouri will result in
two small chances for precipitation over our far western counties
(western semo).

The first chance for precipitation comes late tonight into early
Friday morning. Per critical thicknesses...soundings...etc
precipitation late tonight could be a rain/snow mix...then
transitioning to all rain early Friday.

Friday afternoon and Friday night look dry for the moment but the
second upper level disturbance is expected to produce small rain
chances Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon all precipitation
should be south of our region.

Saturday night with our area being a bit closer to the center of the
high pressure area combined with weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry. The high pressure will keep temperatures well below
normal through the period with lows tonight at to just below
freezing...cooling to several degrees below freezing Friday night
and Saturday night. Tender outdoor plants should be covered if
possible for the next three nights. Beyond that temperatures begin
to moderate back to near normal for the latter half of the forecast
period.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

A surface high will be located east of the pah forecast area on
Sunday. Southerly winds on the back side of this high will help
boost temperatures on Sunday well into the 50s...as a thermal ridge
passes overhead ahead of our next weather system.

Models are still having a hard time with the timing of our next
frontal boundary along with the quantitative precipitation forecast. The 12z GFS has the front and
any subsequent precipitation moving through Sunday afternoon and out of the
area by Sunday night. However...the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian are slower
and more in line with what the trend has been...which is frontal passage
sometime late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The GFS and its
ensemble precipitation mean indicates the best chances for rain in the
Evansville tri state region...while the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian show more
substantial quantitative precipitation forecast County Warning Area wide with frontal passage due to a stronger middle level
shortwave being advertised.

High pressure builds into the area for Monday providing dry weather.
The airmass behind the frontal boundary is not too awful cold and
with full sunshine...we should be in the 60s.

The forecast remains challenging beyond Monday though as we remain
in northwest flow aloft. However...the strongest and most consistent
signal from the models the past several runs has been the system
that is slated to arrive on Wednesday/wedensday night. Will
continue to highlight that rain threat in the grids.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1225 PM CDT Thursday Mar 26 2015

As the ongoing system moves off to the east...MVFR ceilings/visibilities and
precipitation will end from west to east at all sites during the
first few hours of the forecast period. Kcgi/kpah may see a deck
of VFR low clouds Friday morning as a short wave passes by to the
west. Northerly winds 10-15 knots will slowly diminish to at or below 10
knots with time.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...jp
long term/fire weather...CW

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