Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
225 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 105 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

Satellite shows middle-high clouds across Southern low
pressure rotates over Red River valley. Models translate this low
across lower MS valley today-tonight...for the most part keeping
precipitation to our south. Prefer eliminating probability of precipitation but will see how collab
go before a final decision on whether or not to linger a slight
chance in the southeast.

Later Wednesday night-Thursday...strong upper low rotates south out of
Great Lakes...and does introduce/warrant a pop across our east as
it makes its way across middle Ohio River valley Thursday night.

With the two lows keeping a predominantly clyclonic flow pattern
for the short term...look for coolish 60s/40s to remain the rule
through the workweek.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 224 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

On Friday...surface high pressure will build into the area providing
dry weather. Abundant late April sunshine and rising upper level
heights should enable temperatures to reach 70 in many areas...despite weak
northerly low level flow and single digit 850 mb temperatures. An upper
level ridge will build into the region but will be weakening as it
approaches. Models are picking up on some energy in the northwest
flow aloft on the heels of this ridge. The 00z GFS wants to bring
some precipitation into the northern areas late Friday night.
However...looking back on the last several runs of the GFS...this is
the first run to be so bullish on quantitative precipitation forecast. The 12z European model (ecmwf) is dry as well.
Will leave the forecast dry.

Over the weekend...upper heights will continue to rise as a broad
upper level ridge eventually covers much of the country. In the
lower levels...southwest low level flow will raise 850 mb temperatures to
around 10 to 12c. This should translate to highs in the middle to upper
70s. The GFS seems a bit messy with sporadic quantitative precipitation forecast over the weekend in
association with some upper level energy and decent moisture. Will
likely leave the weekend dry since nothing seems very
organized...quantitative precipitation forecast is puny and the last several runs of the GFS has not
been very consistent. The 12z/00z European model (ecmwf) is similar with this idea of
a dry weekend. GFS ensembles are all over the place and offer no
real help. However...there is the possibility that probability of precipitation might need
to be added if a stronger signal becomes established.

Late in the weekend...the upper level flow will back a little more
into the southwest. This will tend to slow down or stall a cold
front as it attempts to move toward the Mississippi Valley. There
are timing differences of course...this far out...but sometime in
the late Monday through Tuesday night time frame looks to be our
best chance for rain at this point.


issued at 105 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

VFR conditions expected through the taf period with mainly high
clouds associated with a disturbance passing across the lower miss
River Valley. A few cumulus at 5000ft are possible at kevv/kowb after
14z. North/NE winds will increase to around 10 kts after 14z with
gusts up near 15 kts at kpah/kcgi. Winds will become light during
the evening as high pressure moves in behind the passing disturbance.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations