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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
230 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 220 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Fropa is ultimately ushering clouds to east albeit slowly. Cool
low 30s td's filtering in wake will pervade forecast area by morning, and
lows will follow. That sets stage for coolish remainder of
forecast with largely mid-upper 40s highs and low-mid 30s lows
continuing for remainder of short term forecast.

As parent cyclone makes way across Great Lakes, its effects will
be felt as far south as our forecast area. Wrap around moisture syncs tmrw
PM-tmrw evening, when chance of a sprinkle (or flurry) is
possible. 1000-850 mb boundary layer thicknesses and 850 mb temps
after 00z supporting flurry as surface temps drop into 30s shortly
after sunset.

Otherwise dry remainder of short term forecast with high pressure
incoming for Thursday.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 220 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

The models continue to hint at a weak system moving through next
Monday. Until then high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
keeping the area dry with near normal temperatures. This system next
week shows an open low moving across the plains, much like the
last system did but the available moisture is in question. With
the last system moisture was abundant but the Gulf is almost
completely shut off until the low closes off over the mid
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. This will give US at least a
slight chance of rain Monday but will wait before final conclusion
until we see what the extended init yields. Also the models
differ on the lows exact path with the GFS favoring a more
southerly path suggesting little to no rainfall vs the European model (ecmwf) takes
a more northerly path with less of a Gulf connection.


issued at 220 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

With fropa has come clearing skies (slowly) today, though MVFR
cigs may persist east kevv/kowb til loss of diurnal fuel.
Overnight VFR skies will see another increase in clouds late in
the night-tmrw morning as parent cyclone wrap around affects esp
northern terminals (kevv/kowb) with potential MVFR cigs there.
Otherwise winds will stay wswly to wnwly with occasional diurnal
gusts both today and again tmrw.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


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