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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
247 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Persistence with respect to the overall pattern and resultant
forecast through middle week. Just some adjustments here and there.
The middle tropospheric flow will lose some of its cyclonic aspect.
So after another chance of convection pinwheeling across the area
Tuesday into Tuesday night...generally a low chance...we will
transition to an mesoscale convective system scenario with convection expected to spread
into the area by early Wednesday... followed by a lull...then
another round by Wednesday night. The first chance is pretty much
area wide...especially central sections moving southeast. The
second round Wednesday night should be most likely across the SW
1/2 of the area with probability of precipitation a bit lower heading NE toward the kevv
tri- state area. Cannot rule out a few strong storms
Wednesday/Wednesday night maybe severe...but think overall the
greatest hazard will be heavy rain. Temperatures were a blend of MOS
through Tuesday night then more in line with straight model output
Wednesday / Wednesday night. Model preference...a blend of the
European model (ecmwf)/Gem/NAM as they seem to handle the Wednesday / Wednesday
night scenario given the decent agreement seen. Given all the far as headlines go prefer to see a bit more run to run
consistency with amounts and forecast quantitative precipitation forecast placement.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 247 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Not much change in the pattern is expected through the Fourth of
July weekend. The 500 mb longwave trough position will remain quasi-
stationary over the Mississippi Valley region. A series of
shortwaves will progress east/southeast through the
trough...bringing periodic episodes of showers and thunderstorms.
The cloudiness/precipitation and extensive low level moisture will result
in highs only in the lower to middle 80s...with lows in the upper 60s
to around 70. The 500 mb trough will weaken and/or lift out early
next week...which should bring slightly drier conditions along with
warmer temperatures.

Thursday looks like the wettest day of the period as a weak surface
low pressure center moves east across the lower Ohio Valley. Even
after the passage of the low...the surface front is forecast to
remain stationary from west to east across our region through
Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected...with
a diurnal maximum in coverage on Friday.

The front is forecast to lift north across the Interstate 64
corridor Friday night and remain just north of our region over the
weekend. With the front not directly over our region...the coverage
of showers and storms should be more scattered than on Thursday and
Friday. Will keep probability of precipitation at 40 to 50 percent through the weekend. The
trend toward lower precipitation coverage will continue on Monday as the
front lifts well to the north of our region.


issued at 1245 PM CDT Monday Jun 29 2015

Scattered to broken cumulus clouds have formed again during the
morning hours. Bases have risen to VFR thresholds at all sites
except kowb...which will follow suit shortly. A weak surface
boundary extends from just south of kowb to kpah to kcgi at midday.
This boundary may provide the focus for a few thunderstorms this
afternoon. Will introduce thunderstorms in the vicinity at kpah...which will be closest to
the boundary. Other sites should be too far north of it. Skies will
become clear and winds will become light around sunset. Some light
fog may form toward sunrise...mainly at kcgi. On Tuesday...cumulus
clouds will again form during the morning.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...



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