Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
324 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 312 am CDT sun may 19 2013
A warm frontal like boundary draped across the forecast area may help focus
diurnal instability into some showers/storms through this
PM/evening...at least along and east of the ridge that is building
in from the southwest. We like the going 20s covering this and
will retain that with minimal adjustment.
Afterwards...the ridge and resultant subsidence looks to pretty
much suppress convection through Monday. The trending of all the
models is to slow the approach of the next system/front...so we
made the necessary timing changes for that...resulting in a small
intro pop Monday night in our north/west. Probability of precipitation then spread slowly
eastward the ensuing 24 hours as the front approaches...peaking
Tuesday night (into wed) in the likely category. New swodys1-3 is
in line with this thinking/timing as well.
Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 312 am CDT sun may 19 2013
A surface cold front attendant to the much advertised weather system
will progress southeast across the forecast area Wednesday. Favor the trend to a
slightly slower timing scheme which brings the surface front near
the northwest border of the forecast area around 12z Wednesday. The most significant
500mb short wave will round the base of the 500mb trough and
progress NE across the forecast area Wednesday. Prefer the slower European model (ecmwf)/GFS
solution on this feature and this combined with the surface
convergence/cold front impact should make for good rain chances
extending into Wednesday. In fact...the best rain chances for the southeast
half of the forecast area will probably not be until Wednesday. Some threat of severe
thunderstorms will likely extend into Wednesday as well.
The front still appears slated to stall out/wash out just south of
the forecast area Wednesday night into early Friday...so will maintain
some lingering low chance probability of precipitation in the forecast for these time
periods...mainly over the S/southeast part of the forecast area.
Gem and European model (ecmwf) both show high pressure building south out of
central/eastern Canada Friday and into the weekend. The high will
keep the area in a northerly flow...which will provide cooler
conditions with slightly below seasonal normals into at least the
first part of the Holiday weekend.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 312 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Patchy fog should be most prevalent east (kevv/kowb) with
temporary restrictions to IFR possible early this morning.
Incoming clouds from the west will eventually result in low VFR
ceilings for all...with temporary MVFR ceilings possible at times.
Convective chances should be along/east of the incoming
ridge...but minimal enough to refrain from mention. Slys should
pick up and start to gust some today during the diurnal mixing
hours.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
