Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
803 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

issued at 802 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Short term update to gridded...text...tabular forecast package for
this evening to address deficiencies in pop/weather coverage this
evening. While addressing short fuse convective trends late this
afternoon...did not ramp up pop/weather convective coverage quick
enough to reflect trends within the first hour of this time period
/tonight/. Most of the convective activity should be exiting the
quadrant state region by midnight...with minimal wind threat as the
evening GOES on. There may be some focused areas of one inch plus
rains this evening as boundary layer Theta-E convergence should sustain
updrafts along and just behind the outflow boundaries from earlier

Adjusted winds...temperatures and dewponts to reflect convective
changes this evening.

Update issued at 646 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

The aviation section has been updated for the 00z taf issuance.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 320 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Will need to be brief today do to in-house tech issues. Gist of
the short term still lies with the return to quite oppressive heat
indices. Extremely high dew points...aided by all of the lush/wet
vegetation have helped to push feel like values up above 110 this
afternoon in southeast MO and the west tip of Kentucky/SW Illinois...prompting and
upgrade from advisory to excessive heat headlines. Considerable
increased cloud cover over eastern counties held values closer to
100...though kowb had made 104 as of 3 PM CDT.

With similar conditions expected Tuesday...with possibly less cloud
cover over our east..will keep excessive heat headlines as
is...and expand the heat advisory east across the remainder of the
forecast area. With the high aloft bulging in from the
southwest...expect no more than isolated thunderstorm pop ups.

Cold front will then make its way into the region by middle week.
Not much low level convergence or overall lifting support with the
front...but with all of the instability expected...the boundary
itself may be all we need to generate some scattered storms.
Bigger news with this front will likely be the relief it brings
from the oppressive heat later in the week.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 320 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Thursday will mark the start of a fairly welcome change in our
weather. By 12z Thursday...the upper level ridge axis will have
shifted just south of the County Warning an upper level trough moves
across the Great Lakes region. This upper level ridge axis will
continue to push south and the center of the upper high will
eventually retrograde westward and set up shop over The Rockies by

Surface high pressure will steadily build into the region from Thursday
through the weekend resulting in dry weather. In fact...much drier
air will start filtering into the area as early as Wednesday evening
and this trend will continue throughout the day. This will result in
much less humidity across the area as dewpoints drop into the low to
middle 60s. We should see temperatures drop off several degrees as
well...with highs dropping back down to the middle and upper 80s. It
does look like we will be closer to 90 or the lower 90s by Sunday or
Monday though.

Although there are minor pertabations in the upper flow from time to
time through the period...lack of moisture means that just a few
clouds should result. So we should go through a several day stretch
of rain free conditions. There are some hints of a front trying to
invade the area from the north late in the extended but timing is
definitely a problem this far out so will leave it dry.


issued at 646 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

An area of ts will impact kcgi and most likely kpah in the first
few hours of the forecast. Wind gusts to 25kts and brief IFR
conditions can be expected. Fog development will then be likely
late tonight at those terminals. IFR conditions will be
possible...especially if they get significant rainfall. MVFR fog
cannot be ruled out at kevv and kowb.

Isolated diurnal convection is possible Tuesday afternoon...but the
expected coverage at this time precludes a mention in the forecast.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ilz075>078-080>091-094.

Excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ilz092-093.

MO...excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for moz076-086-087-

In...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for inz081-082-085>088.

Kentucky...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for kyz005>022.

Excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for kyz001>004.



short term...meffert
long term...CW

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations