Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
248 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Short term...(tonight through sunday)
issued at 248 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Medium to high confidence in the short term, however not much to

To start off the period, high pressure at the surface and ridging
aloft will keep the region dry through Saturday.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge as surface high pressure moves off to the east. This will
allow for the approach and passage of a cold front, which will set
the stage for shower and thunderstorm development starting Saturday
night and continuing into Sunday. Due to the relative lack of
moisture and instability, and the frontal passage occurring during
the overnight and early morning hours, no widespread severe weather
is expected at this time.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the short
term period.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 248 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

High confidence in the extended.

A very dry and mild start to fall seems in order. Sfc high pressure
will move in quickly on the heels of the cold frontal passage
Sunday. Removed any small pops from our southeast sections, as
models seem to agree that this dry air will be quicker to make its
way in Sunday evening. This high will settle in directly over the
region Monday/Tuesday, bringing cool nights and pleasant afternoon
with little in the way of cloudiness. As we head into mid week,
models are in good agreement that an upper ridge will build slowly
eastward into the Great Lakes region. This will likely result in a
continuations of the dry conditions, tho temperatures may moderate
up a few degrees. All in all, quite nice conditions throughout the
extended period.


issued at 248 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

As high pressure builds across the region both at the surface and
aloft, VFR cloudiness will continue to diminish from northeast to
southwest. May see IFR cigs/vsbys at kcgi between 08-12z. Northeast
winds at or below 5 knots will veer around to the east after 15z.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term/
long term/fire weather...GM

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations