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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
403 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 352 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

As mean long wave axis rotates across area...best uvm/moisture
overlay looks to be across semo this morning. Temperature profile there
suggests it may be light precipitation chance for rw-/light snow shower through about
18z...after which surface high pressure works in behind long wave
trof's move into/across Tennessee Valley. Otherwise a cloudy/cool/raw
day with highs only in the 40s.

Surface high should let some clearing work in late today into
early tonight...and temperatures will plummet. Though clouds work in from
the west later tonight into tmrw...should still see a bottom out
low in the 20s tonight. Coordinate/collab with lmk/Kentucky ag suggests too
early for freeze headlines yet...so we'll just highlight in the
severe weather potential statement. The increase in clouds late tonight-early tmrw may include
another passing chance of rw-/light snow shower and again...mainly semo...as
another spoke of positive vorticity advection/trough axis energy makes passage. Saturday is
another raw day with highs again in the 40s.

Heights start to rebound by Sunday. After another sub freezing
night Sat night...temperatures will recover into the 50s for Sunday. A
chance of showers will also move in across mainly the north
Sunday...spreading across the rest of the area Sunday night...as
an upper trough axis makes passage across the middle-upper Ohio Valley.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 352 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

High pressure will build into the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio
valleys on Monday. Mostly sunny skies and increasing sun angle
will continue to moderate temperatures despite light northwest
winds. With the high shifting east of our region late in the
day...a return of southerly winds will lead to above normal
temperatures through the work week.

By middle week...models continue to differ a little bit in timing of
the cold front and quite a bit in onset of associated
precipitation. GFS spreads precipitation into the pah forecast
area as early as Tuesday night... while European model (ecmwf) and Canadian hold
off until late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Preferring to lean
closer to the slower solutions...kept Tuesday night dry...then
went with chance probability of precipitation west to slight chance probability of precipitation east on
Wednesday. Went with the highest probability of precipitation for Wednesday night...then
slight chance northwest to chance probability of precipitation southeast Thursday. Due to
timing questions...kept probability of precipitation in the chance category or lower.
Models show lifted indice's of 0 to -4 Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night...and included chances of thunderstorms for those time
periods.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 352 am CDT Friday Mar 27 2015

Increasing clouds will lead to lowering VFR ceilings with some cloud
bases 4-5k feet above ground level possible...mainly kcgi terminal. A small precipitation
chance exists but should stay west of terminals...with kcgi the
most imminent threat this morning. Beginning late this afternoon
and into the evening...clouds should disperse as high pressure
starts to work across the forecast area.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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