Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
523 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
updated aviation section for 12z tafs
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 152 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Winter storm continues to produce heavy snow across southern
Kentucky and the pennyrile...where up to a foot has fallen in
some locations and at least a couple more inches look possible
before it tapers off. Radar shows the back edge clearly and observation
reveal dew point depressions sharply increasing where the snow
tapers sharply from significant accumulating snow to light snow
before it ends. Anticipate all this will come to a close in the
next few hours and will retain the current expire time and cancel
west to east as we see these trends unfold.
Still forecasting below guidance lows in the lower single digits
tonight as high pressure works in overhead and anchors across the
Tennessee Valley by 12z Friday. As a result...winds will diminish...so
the effective temperatures/wind chills near zero will be highlighted as
such on the severe weather potential statement. Record lows look to be untouched unless it cools
about 5f or more from our existing forecast lows.
Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 215 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
A very quiet long term period is expected...along with a slow
warming trend. This will be a welcome relief for snow removal
crews as well as those in flood prone areas.
The existing deep snowpack will hinder the warming trend...at
least through the weekend. Generally kept forecast temperatures below
model guidance...especially at night. Temperatures will get above
freezing on both days this weekend...allowing for slow melting of
Through the weekend...the northern branch of the jet will dominate
our region. A weak 500 mb shortwave will progress east across our
region on Sunday. This feature may bring some cloudiness...but
there is very little model guidance to suggest precipitation.
During the early to middle part of next week...a split flow
pattern will develop over the nation. The models begin to diverge
at this point...with some indications the southern branch of the
jet will move north into our latitude. Precipitation could possibly
spread as far north as west Kentucky by middle week. Will mention a
slight chance of rain showers in parts of west Kentucky Wednesday.
Snowmelt should be rather quick as strong March sunshine combines
with low level warm advection.
issued at 523 am CST Thursday Mar 5 2015
Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue through the taf
period at kevv and kowb. The only exception is some lingering MVFR
at kowb before snow exits that area early this morning. Some
scattered to broken low clouds may form around noon and persist into
the early evening. Kpah/kcgi should have some MVFR ceilings...but
kevv/kowb look to be more scattered. Skies will be mainly clear
tonight. North winds will average around 10 knots today...then
become nearly calm tonight.
Kentucky...Winter Storm Warning until 6 am CST early this morning for