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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
303 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 302 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will be the
rule through the short term portion of the forecast. A minor
disturbance in the upper-level flow will sweep through the area
early Wednesday, and behind it surface high pressure will settle
right overhead.

The 12z models are trending drier with a more substantial upper-
level disturbance that is forecast to move through the region
Thursday night. The NAM and GFS have virtually nothing for qpf,
and even the European model (ecmwf) has trended drier. Will keep the slightest of
chances in the northeast and a portion of the pennyrile overnight
Thursday night, but figure that it will ultimately be dry all
night. There will be a nice surge of Canadian surface high
pressure associated with this upper-level disturbance, so a period
of decent north winds can be expected as the surface cold front
moves through.

As for temperatures, we have warmed up more than forecast today,
and with the dry air mass in place, will be going on the warm end
of guidance for highs Wednesday and Thursday. Might see a few
lower 80s over southeast Missouri Thursday. As for lows, will stay
close to consensus guidance tonight and Thursday night with some
persistent wind expected each night. With the surface high
overhead for most of Wednesday night, guidance seems too warm
with the exception of the previous forecast. Decided to just keep
the existing forecast going with some minor modification in
southeast Missouri, where south winds may develop before sunrise.

Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 302 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Clearing skies along with cooler and drier air will filter into the
pah forecast area on Friday behind the cold front. Northwest to
north winds will only allow temperatures to reach the middle to
upper 60s. Lows Friday night will be much colder with readings in
the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, with highs Saturday in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models show Canadian high pressure drifting south-southeast,
becoming centered just northeast of our region by 12z Sunday. Clear
skies and very light to calm winds will lead to diurnal cooling
Saturday night and our coldest temperatures this season. Sunday
morning lows will be in the 30s region wide, and patchy frost is
expected, especially across southwest Indiana and much of southern
Illinois. If winds do go completely calm, frost could be much more
widespread, and we will continue to monitor for this possibility.

The high will move farther east into Sunday night, which will result
in a gradual shift to southeast winds. This will help temperatures
begin to slowly rebound Sunday into Sunday night. A more substantial
increase can be expected Monday into Tuesday as south winds increase
ahead of an approaching cold front. Readings will be near seasonal
Monday into Tuesday.


issued at 1148 am CDT Tuesday Oct 13 2015

Surface high pressure will build across the region through the
period. West northwest winds may gust into the teens this afternoon,
but winds will then become light around sunset and remain light
through the end of the period. There should be just enough wind to
prevent fog given the dry air mass. The lone exception would be
kcgi. Due to local effects will keep the prevailing MVFR fog late
tonight, but added in bcfg.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...drs
long term...rst

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