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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1147 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

issued at 953 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

South winds have stayed up at 5 miles per hour or more so far this
evening...which has helped keep temperatures from falling as
quickly as expected. As a surface low shifts east southeast from
northern Illinois into Northern Ohio by morning...winds should
veer to the southwest and increase a bit overnight. Dewpoints have
increased into the lower 40s over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Elsewhere most locations jumped back into at least the
lower 30s with the loss of deeper mixing. There are middle to upper
40 dewpoints just to our southwest over northeast a
further increase through the night is likely. The bottom-line is
that the forecast has been updated to slightly increase temperatures
just a bit in most locations through the night. This results in
low temperatures being increased by a category in many locations.


Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 225 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

High pressure over the region tonight will result in mostly clear
skies. Return flow sets up Tuesday with a front approaching from
the northwest ahead of a very subtle middle level shortwave. Compared to what we
saw yesterday...the models pushed the best convective chances back
to our southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. The GFS is still
the farthest northeast. We think some activity may skirt along
the MO/AR/TN/SW Kentucky borders. But will not go with probability of precipitation any farther
to the NE than keep some consistency with prior
forecasts. Late Tuesday night through most of Wednesday should be
dry with weak high pressure moving across the area. We do have a
small chance of convection Wednesday afternoon (late) into
semo...less aggressive than before. Highs and lows will remain
close to our existing forecast.

Long term...(wednesday night through monday)
issued at 225 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

A more active period of weather is anticipated through Friday
night. Energy digging across the northwest U.S. Will result in an
unsettled west-southwest flow aloft. A surface front is forecast to move from
the Great Lakes and plains Thursday. It should settle across the
area Thursday night and then move little until late Friday into
Friday night as the boundary parallels the upper flow. The overall
forecast will be based on a blend of Ops and ensemble mean output.
Locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out especially Thursday night
into Friday. A few strong to severe storms may occur as well. The
convective activity is forecast to depart early Friday night with
dry weather this weekend. Convective chances then return for
Monday. Temperatures will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers. Even
with the front moving through late week...not looking at a major
cool down behind it.


issued at 1147 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

With the 06z Tuesday update...decided to go ahead and expand the
low level wind shear across the remainder of the weather forecast office pah taf sites
through 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...



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