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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
154 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 109 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

The frontal boundary to our north and west looks to remain of
little impact to the forecast area through the short term portion of the
forecast. Satellite and modeling of the upper atmosphere show two
pieces of jet energy that will largely drive the movement of the
boundary. The northern piece in Canada/Great Lakes area will slice
the northern part of the front to the east/away from our area. The
other piece is out in the southwest u... height falls will
commence upon its landfall/movement over the southern rockies. The
teleconnected evolution of the long waves will be to carve out a
broad scale trough in the west...and also trough in the northeast. In
between...we will ridge across the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys...effectively shunting the frontal boundary/associated
moisture away from our area...not withstanding a slight chance pop
tmrw in our western counties...while this transition takes place.

Also of interest...a developing tropical low off the coast of Florida.
This will be of importance to track...as the GFS models it/and its
associated moisture into the southeast U.S. And under the ridge during
the next 72 hours. We should see our temperatures/dew points hover in the
80s/60s through the course of the week as these features take shape.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 154 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Continued good agreement among the operational models and their
ensembles yields better than average confidence through the period.
The extended will start with an upper level trough over the western
U.S. And a ridge in the east. The resultant southwest flow across
the central part of the nation will result in continued unseasonable
warmth through the end of the week. Highs are forecast to average in
the middle 80s through Saturday...then cool into the upper 70s to near
80 Sunday and Monday with increased cloud cover and rain potential.
Lows will generally range through the lower to middle 60s.

With the proximity of the middle level ridge through Friday...forecast
soundings suggest the atmosphere will be too dry and weakly capped
to support thunderstorm development. However by the weekend...the
ridge is forecast to weaken as a closed low over the southwestern
U.S. Ejects northeast into the Central Plains. The corresponding
increase in atmospheric moisture and instability will result in a
good chance of showers and thunderstorms. At this time...the best
chance appears to be focused along and ahead of an approaching cold
front Sunday into Monday.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 109 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015

Scattered to at times broken high based cumulus in the 060-070 k feet above ground level range
is possible diurnally today and tmrw. Otherwise will see a scattered to
at times broken at or above 150 k feet above ground level sky. Southerly winds may gust through the
teens during peak heating hours. VFR should predominate the
forecast but additional cumulus incoming late in the planning period
may offer scattered-broken decks threatening MVFR levels as a vicinity pop
begins to appear over semo nearest kcgi/kpah terminals.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.

&&

$$

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