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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1158 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Update...
issued at 1158 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

The aviation section has been updated for the 06z taf issuance.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 233 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Convection continues across the region...especially west Kentucky this
afternoon. Lack of bulk shear...weak middle level lapse rates and
only modest instability should preclude severe weather. It's a
non zero chance. Cannot rule out isolated strong storms. Otherwise
no change to this northwest flow pattern. Prefer to go with lower chance
probability of precipitation through the period given uncertainty with respect to coverage
and model difficulty handling the subtle waves moving through.
With time...we should have slightly higher probability of precipitation south vs. North.
Temperatures will be a blend of MOS and existing numbers.

Long term...(sunday through thursday)
issued at 233 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

On Sunday...we will still have a very weak boundary hanging around
the area. This boundary might help to initiate some heat of the day
type convection. However...a weak ridge will be building into the
area in the wake of a passing shortwave trough...and that will help
to dry things out above 850 mb. Therefore...if we can get storms
started...they will likely be mainly scattered at best with the
better chances in our southern counties closer to the better
moisture. Whatever convection fires on Sunday should come to an end
on Sunday night...so will leave that period dry.

The next big weather maker that we will be keeping an eye on is a
frontal boundary which will be making its way east toward the area
on Monday night into Tuesday. Low level winds will shift to
southwesterly on Monday so temperatures will surge a bit. We could
have some scattered convection during the day on Monday as
well...but the better chances will probably be after midnight Monday
night into Tuesday morning...when showers and storms will develop
along and ahead of the incoming front...starting in the western
sections of the County Warning Area. The speed of this front continues to come into
question as we head forward into the early part of the week. It all
will depend on whether or not (and when exactly) a surface low will
develop along the front to help push it along and generate
precipitation. However...models are tending to agree that this might
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday. Therefore...that might a time
period that we could see some more widespread heavy rainfall. But
the timing will likely be adjusted one way or the other. Even after
the front passes...we will continue to be in northflow aloft which
will mean unsettled weather will continue to be in the forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal for this time of the
year and staying mainly in the low to middle 80s for highs.
However...looking into the longer term...it looks like we could be
seeing highs near 90 as we head toward the end of the week and
into Saturday.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1158 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered showers across
most of the area through the overnight hours. Ceilings and
visibilities should drop to at least MVFR levels toward daybreak.
MVFR ceilings may be slow to scatter or lift during the day. A
frontal boundary will remain draped across the region through the
day...so thunderstorms will be possible throughout the region from
late morning through the afternoon. Clearing should occur from
northwest to southeast in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

Update...drs
aviation...drs

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