Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
639 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Update...
issued at 639 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Thunderstorm outflow has passed southward through the entire watch
area...and there is little if any convection left in our vicinity.
Therefore our portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 324 has been
cancelled.
The aviation section has been updated for the 00z taf issuance.
&&
Short term...(this evening through Thursday night)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Main forecast concern in the short term is the chance for showers
and thunderstorms and associated severe potential this evening...
mainly in the vicinity of the Wabash River valley.
Latest weather analysis depicted a weak surface boundary draped
across central Indiana...central Illinois...and northern
Missouri...with another very weak boundary over central Missouri
near the Lake of The Ozarks. In the upper levels...a southeastward
moving shortwave trough was positioned over Iowa and northern
Illinois. As this feature approaches late this afternoon...isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire in the moderately
unstable air mass along and ahead of the surface boundary. The
greatest potential for severe weather should reside north of the
region. Locally...our northernmost counties in southeast Illinois
and southwest Indiana along and north of Interstate 64 will see
the best combination of deep layered shear and instability to pose
the potential for a few severe storms. The main concern with the
thunderstorm activity is large hail with the potential for strong
updrafts...and damaging winds with the increase in wind shear and
relatively dry air aloft. Any remnant thunderstorm activity should
rapidly diminish this evening with the setting sun as it drifts
southeast across mainly the northeastern half of the area.
Through the remainder of the short term...mainly dry conditions
are expected as high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler with highs only
in the middle 80s. A warming trend will get underway as early as
Thursday as the high begins to shift east of the area. There is
also a very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm Thursday
afternoon...mainly over the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri.
Long term...(friday through tuesday)
issued at 325 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Hot and a bit more humid days are expected as a 500 mb high sits
over the middle Mississippi Valley. Little if any convection is
expected with the ridging aloft...and in the absence of any
significant low level boundaries. The h50 ridge may flatten just a bit
early next week...but only enough to warrant a slight storm chance at
this time.
With afternoon 850 mb temperatures forecast to hover around or just below
20 c...daily highs in the 90 to 93 range can be expected over the
weekend and into next week. Current forecast dew points in the upper
half of the 60s would produce heat indices a few degrees higher
than actual temperatures.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 639 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Thunderstorm outflow has produced a brief northerly gust up to
28kts at kevv and will impact kowb around 00z. The outflow is
losing steam...so the gust at kowb may not be quite as high. Winds
will quickly settle to light northerly behind the outflow
boundary. Scattered showers will be possible for much of the
evening at kevv and kowb...but coverage should be sparse enough to
not mention explicit showers at either terminal.
Light winds...with a scattered 5-7kft cloud deck and some cirrus
will be the rule throughout the area through the night. Will have
to watch for some fog development at all locations...but the
threat will be greatest at kevv or kowb if they get some rainfall
this evening.
Some scattered cumulus and a relatively light northeast wind will
prevail Wednesday with weak surface high pressure settling over
the region.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
Update...drs
short term...rjp
long term...GM
aviation...drs
