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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1216 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Update...
issued at 1216 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18z taf issuance.

&&

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 313 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Better confidence in the short term as models in better agreement on
timing and placement of synoptic features and/or precipitation
chances.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary stalled east-west along the southern
border of our County Warning Area at the time of this writing is forecast to waffle
back and forth across the southern portions of our County Warning Area through
tonight. As a result...showers and thunderstorms are a possibility
today and tonight...especially over the southern half of our County Warning Area.

On Saturday a sharp short wave will push said frontal boundary just
to the south and east of our County Warning Area. High pressure filtering in behind
the front should preclude development of showers and thunderstorms
over all except the southeast sections of our County Warning Area from Saturday
through the end of the period.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 313 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

Rain chances remain but continue to lower probability of precipitation with each run of the
extended init. The eastern trough persists over the eastern US with
high pressure firmly anchored over the west. This scenario is about
to change with a low coming onto the West Coast but that will happen
middle to late week. Over the east the trough persists with a weak
surface front finally moving southeast out of the area early in the
work week. This will keep rain chances at a minimum. However we
still have a trough approaching with the Gulf wide open and
advecting abundant moisture into the Heartland. It appears in Monday
through Tuesday time frame any storms will be initiated with the
heat of the day. However warm air advection shower can not be ruled out anytime
with this synoptic scenario. By middle week another cold front start to
enter the picture. This should slowly move through with good
coverage of storms. By late week models are trending a bit drier. It
would not surprise ME if continue to lower probability of precipitation for the end of next
week.

As for temperatures and moisture they will both increase as we head through
the week although the cold front middle week might change that trend at
least a little.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1216 PM CDT Friday Jul 3 2015

With a frontal boundary just south of the taf sites combined with
a series of upper level disturbances moving through the area...MVFR
ceilings/visibilities and vcsh/thunderstorms and rain possible through late afternoon...then
gradually becoming VFR. Light and variable winds. Could see some
fog development by early tomorrow morning as well.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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