Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
244 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 244 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Could see a few isolated showers or storms this afternoon over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. So far it has been a
struggle to come up with enough moisture to get something
going...but the hrrr has been consistently showing development
this afternoon. It appears that individual cells will try to move
east...and propagate southward into the higher Theta-E air. Figure
any convection will be done by sunset.

Have opted to keep late tonight and Monday morning dry. The 12z
models continue to hint at some convection moving off of the
approaching cold front and flirting with southwest Indiana
straddling 12z Monday. In general the models have a weakening
trend with this activity as it approaches the area...and
neighboring forecast offices prefer to keep the forecast dry...so
have followed suit here.

The front may provide a focus for thunderstorm development Monday
afternoon and night. The problems are whether there will be enough
convergence to aid in convective initiation...and where exactly
it will be. The 12z model consensus indicates that it should be
cutting about Half Way through the area by afternoon...but it is
not clear whether it will push through the entire area by
evening...or whether it will stall out over the area. If it does
focus convection it will stand a better chance of pushing through
the area. Will have small chance probability of precipitation mainly across the northern
half of the region for the afternoon and through the night.

The boundary is expected to take on more of a warm frontal look
Tuesday and Tuesday night...as it sets up along/near I-64.
Certainly could see it provide a focus for convective
development...so will continue with the small chances focused in
the north Tuesday. Will then increase them some Tuesday night as
a middle/upper-level system approaches the region.

Temperatures are running cool in most locations this
afternoon...compared to the guidance from yesterday...and this has
been the trend for awhile now. Therefore...will stay on the cool
side of the range of guidance for highs Monday and Tuesday. Leaned
toward the warm side of guidance for lows.

Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 244 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

Latest model runs are in pretty good agreement showing fairly
widespread quantitative precipitation forecast across the pah forecast area Wednesday and Wednesday
night as a surface low moves just north of the area. Latest European model (ecmwf)
and Canadian are in fairly closer agreement in placement and timing,
and this overall gives a little more confidence in going high chance
to likely probability of precipitation for showers and thunderstorms for these periods. A
good chance of showers and storms will continue into Thursday,
decreasing from northwest to southeast Thursday night as the
associated cold front pushes through the region. European model (ecmwf) and GFS
imply some lingering precipitation chances on Friday, so kept some slight
to low chance probability of precipitation going for now. For Friday night and into the
weekend, surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region will keep
our area dry.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy Wednesday through Thursday
with southerly flow ahead of the surface pumping warm moist air
northward. High temperatures will reach near normal readings in the
middle to upper 80s, with dew points generally in the lower 70s.
With the cold front moving across the area Thursday night, high
temperatures Friday and through the weekend will overall be in the
80 to 85 degree range, with dew points dropping back into the lower
to middle 60s.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1230 PM CDT sun Aug 2 2015

VFR conditions throughout the taf period. There is some potential
of thunderstorms in the vicinity around kcgi this afternoon but confidence too low to
include. Will watch trends and amend if necessary. Scattered cumulus
will be present at kcgi and kpah this afternoon. Otherwise light
southerly winds today veer around to westerly tmrw as weak front
pushes through. Thunderstorms in the vicinity could be associated with this front by the end
of the taf period at kevv and kowb but probability is low at this
time.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

Short term...drs
long term...rst
aviation...snow pellets

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations