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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
213 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 204 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Patchy mist/freezing fog may occur early this morning...mainly in
low lying areas...but does not appear widespread with nearly all
observation sites showing good visibilities. It's out there though...with reduced
visibilities in brief we'll monitor to see if it expands
beyond isolated/patches as we drop to near record mins this

With 1035-1040 mb surface high ridged across Tennessee Valley
today...should see plenty of sunshine and good temperature rise to near
the 32f mark. This will be the beginning of a slow/gradual
moderating trend that will commence and continue through the weekend.

Tonight's lows look like teens mostly and with return flow we
should see more sunshine and highs both Saturday and Sunday
climbing into/through the 40s. The high shifts far enough east Sunday
that moisture advection from the lower MS valley will introduce
more clouds Sunday than Saturday and perhaps even a small chance
of rain...but it should be confined mainly to the Arkansas and
tennesse borders in southern most semo/wky...and mainly just sun
PM/evening hours.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 204 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Rather quiet weather will continue through the long term period. The
upper level flow pattern will be dominated by a split flow regime
across the USA. The moist southern branch of the jet will likely
bring clouds as far north as our region from time to time. The
models continue to indicate the northern edge of the measurable rain
should stay mainly to our south.

Monday into Tuesday...the first southern stream system will bring an
increase in clouds. A positive tilt upper level trough over the
Southern Plains will move very slowly east and weaken. An inverted
surface trough extending from the Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley
will produce a cool easterly wind flow. However...temperatures will
seem very mild compared to this bitter cold. The forecast will
remain dry except for a slight chance of rain in the khop area.

From Tuesday night through Thursday...a rather broad upper level
ridge is forecast to move slowly east across the plains to the
Mississippi Valley. Some southern stream energy may undercut the
ridge...spreading periods of cloudiness northward into the lower
Ohio Valley. Low temperatures will be on the order of 40 degrees
warmer than this morning. A rather steady snowmelt will moisten the
cold ground...which could lead to fog or stratus formation in the
light wind regime. This would most likely occur in the morning


issued at 204 am CST Friday Mar 6 2015

Will monitor for patchy mist/fzfg in clear sky/calm wind over
snowpack environ...but air is very dry so it appears to be mainly
outside the terminals that it may occur. If it does occur...tempo
restriction to MVFR or even IFR is not out of the question...most
likely at kcgi. Otherwise VFR will rule as high pressure
strengthens its grip over the Tennessee Valley.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


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