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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
300 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Short term...(today through Monday night)
issued at 153 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Today will be similar to yesterday...with vorticity spoking through
the mean long wave upper trough and inducing scattered showers
-rw/-SW mainly semo this morning. Strong surface high ridges to
our east at the same time...and another cold/raw day is the
result.

On Sunday...a front enters/makes passage across the Ohio River
valley and brings with it an associated chance of showers...especially
across the north Sunday afternoon and across the entire forecast area Sunday
evening. After this front passes...we should start to see some
moderation in wx/temps.

Saturday 40s/20s will recover to 50s/30s Sunday and then 60s/40s
to start the moderating trend at the beginning of the coming work
week.

Long term...(tuesday through friday)
issued at 300 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Model variability is unusually large during this period due to a
split flow pattern in the upper levels. The models handle individual
shortwaves in both streams rather poorly...judging from the lack of
model agreement.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...the general model theme seems to be that
weak southerly low level flow will bring milder temperatures. The forecast
will be kept dry during this time period...even though a few showers
cannot be ruled out in the milder and more humid air mass. The upper
level flow over our region will be rather weak and diffuse between
the two branches of the upper level jet...which makes precipitation
forecasting more of a challenge.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night...low chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be in the forecast due to the proximity of a
southern stream shortwave. Again...the models handle this feature
differently...so probability of precipitation will be on the low side. Temperatures should reach
the lower 70s in most areas on Wednesday...since the models are in
good agreement on south to southwest low level winds.

Thursday into Friday...the models diverge regarding the timing of a
northern stream shortwave and its associated cold front. The
amplitude and speed of the shortwave vary so much that the sensible
weather forecast for both days is low confidence at best. Will have
chance probability of precipitation in the forecast both days. Thunder appears to be a good
bet along and ahead of the cold front. The GFS and its ensemble mean
brings the front across the lower Ohio Valley by later Thursday
night...while the 00z European model (ecmwf) delays the front until Friday afternoon.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 153 am CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

Middle clouds semo may include a chance of light liquid/frozen precipitation
early this morning...but it looks to stay mainly west of kcgi
terminal so we'll just introduce some scattered-broken middle decks. Otherwise
VFR conditions anticipated both ceilings/visibilities through the package.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

Long term...my

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