Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
304 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015
Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 304 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015
Best warming this afternoon has been to the west of the cirrus
shield over southeast Missouri. A laps sounding from near Van
Buren Missouri indicates that there is very dry air in the middle and
upper levels...and low-level moisture is rather lacking as well.
There may be just enough moisture to get deep convection...but
figure that it will be difficult to sustain for long. Will keep at
least a slight chance throughout the area through 00z...but
figure most areas will stay dry.
All eyes are on the massive convective complex raking across Texas
and southern Oklahoma this afternoon. The nmm and arw WRF both
wipe it out as it approaches our area overnight tonight...and the
latest hrrr appears to be trending that way too. Like wpc quantitative precipitation forecast and
followed it closely through Tuesday. Not sure about the likely to
categorical probability of precipitation associated with this area late tonight and
Tuesday. Bottom-line is that the heavy rainfall threat is rather
Would not be surprised to see convection begin to increase as the
outflow boundary pushes into the pennyrile region of west Kentucky
around midday Tuesday. Figure that the severe threat Tuesday will
be greatest to the east of our area.
Really feel that Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be
dry...but have Chancy probability of precipitation in there anyway. A weak middle/upper-level
trough will be approaching the area from the west by 12z Wednesday
and this may be able to touch off some showers and storms.
The best chance for convective development Wednesday will be
across the north in the afternoon...as this trough moves by. The
models have been hitting this development consistently for at
least 3 days now...so at least scattered showers and storms seems
like a good bet at this time. The models develop that activity
southward through the remainder of the area in the evening.
Temperatures will be highly dependent on convection and associated
cloud cover. Held temperatures down a bit for highs Tuesday...with
little sunshine expected. Wednesday may see highs back up in the
80s...especially if convection can hold off until the afternoon.
Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 304 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015
By Thursday into Friday..the upper flow weakens and upper heights
slowly rise as a ridge tries to build across the region. Enough
moisture will be in place however to warrant some low chances for
afternoon convection as we remain in a warm...moist...and uncapped
Southwest flow strengthens across the area Friday night into
Saturday as a trough over the western Continental U.S. Moves into the Central
Plains. A frontal boundary will be in association with this system
and it will move in our direction for the weekend. How exactly this
surface low and front will evolve as we head into the weekend and early
next week is still in question. However...this does appear to be our
best chance for more widespread convection. Therefore...will
advertise highest probability of precipitation during these periods.
It will certainly continue to be warm and humid...as highs in the
first part of the extended will be in the middle 80s...dropping down
into the low 80s with the clouds/precipitation around over the weekend.
Dewpoints will be rather high as well...with readings in the middle to
upper 60s...making it feel pretty sticky outside with heat index
readings in the upper 80s in many locations early on in the
issued at 112 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015
As showers exit west Kentucky this afternoon ceilings become VFR and S winds
remain around 10 kts...with gusts near kevv/kowb. S winds at or below 10
kts tonight with VFR cigs/vsbys. On Tuesday am ceilings/visbys become
MVFR and S winds increase with gusts...as showers and storms
enter from the west and pass through during the day.