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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1144 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

issued at 1144 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Just updated to catch up to latest radar trends. It appears that a
final swath of rain will overspread much of the region this
afternoon and exit this evening. Not sure how far north it will
reach, but it should expand north/northwest from where it has been
this morning.

The aviation section has been updated for the 18z taf issuance.


Short term...(today through Tuesday night)
issued at 308 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Most of the short term will be dominated by the influences of a
closed upper level low that will work its way slowly across the
northern rockies and plains states. Short wave energy ejecting
northeast from the low will bring additional areas of mainly light
rains today and Monday, especially to western Kentucky and far sern MO.
Though conditions are quite saturated over much of this region,
the expected lack of intensity of the rain precludes any flood
headlines at this time. Temperatures will not move much today due
to the extensive cloud cover and northerly winds. However, some
warming should take place early next week as sfc flow becomes
more southerly

A sfc front will then approach and move through the region later
Monday and Monday night. Instability looks to be lacking once
again with the passage of the front, so will just will mention
showers for now, and leave the mention of thunder out. It looks as
though things will finally begin to dry out area wide behind the
front on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Long term...(wednesday through saturday)
issued at 308 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

Models show surface high pressure centered over the Central Plains
at 00z Thursday, sliding east over the pah forecast area by 00z
Saturday. This will keep US dry with mostly clear skies through the
end of the work week and into next weekend. Winds will remain north
to northwest across our region Wednesday into Wednesday night, and
temperatures will be near to a little below seasonal normals. As
the high moves east, winds will generally be light and variable, so
temperatures will only moderate by a few degrees by the end of the


issued at 1144 am CST sun Nov 29 2015

IFR ceilings cover the entire region today, along with northeast
winds around 10kts. MVFR visibilities should accompany the rain as
it moves across all but possibly the kevv terminal this afternoon,
but would not completely rule out a period of IFR visibilities in
the rain. The rain should exit early this evening, but figure that
the MVFR visibilities will remain. As winds die off later tonight,
expect deteriorating conditions in drizzle and fog. Those conditions
may linger through the end of the period, as winds will struggle
to pick up before 18z.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...GM
long term...rst

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