Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
304 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(this evening through Tuesday night)
issued at 259 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
There is a small possibility of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the far northeast sections this afternoon along
a surface boundary/Theta-E gradient that will continue to lift
northeast and eventually out of the area. Meanwhile...an 500 mb ridge
building northeast across the region should preclude any
additional convection area wide through the overnight hours.
As the upper level ridge shifts east overnight...it will allow a
slow moving system over the plains to approach the region...so
precipitation chances should slowly increase from west to east on
Monday...but only the northwest third of our County Warning Area to be affected by
late Monday afternoon.
As is typical over time...models continue to slow down the eastward
progress of aforementioned system...but with that said chances for
showers and thunderstorms should start to increase significantly
across the region Monday night. However...the best chances for
precipitation will be Tuesday and especially Tuesday night as the
frontal boundary associated with this system begins to cross our
County Warning Area. With plenty of moisture and instability in place and an
increase in forcing both at the surface and aloft...chances of a few
storms becoming severe is a distinct possibility...mainly over the
northwest half of the County Warning Area through Tuesday night.
Long term...(wednesday through sunday)
issued at 259 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Primary surface cold front will move east across the lower Ohio
Valley on Wednesday. Based on the latest model timing...it appears
the warmest temperatures will actually be behind the front...where some
partial clearing may occur in the afternoon. Ahead of the
front...will carry likely probability of precipitation across SW Indiana and parts of
western Kentucky.
A secondary cold front will move southeast across the middle
Mississippi/lower Ohio valleys on Thursday...associated with a 500
mb shortwave rotating southeast across the Great Lakes region. There
will likely be enough residual moisture/instability for scattered
showers and maybe a few storms Thursday.
Friday through Saturday appear dry and cooler as a strong surface
high moves across the Great Lakes region. The lone outlier to this
solution is the 12z European model (ecmwf)...which produces widespread convection in
response to a warm front over the Kentucky/Tennessee border region.
The 00z European model (ecmwf) is in good agreement with the 12z GFS/gefs and will be
followed. 00z European model (ecmwf) MOS and 12z GFS MOS are in good agreement on
high temperatures in middle to upper 70s both days.
On Sunday...low level warm moist advection will begin on the back
side of the retreating surface ridge. 12z GFS/00z European model (ecmwf) MOS remain
in general agreement on slight chance probability of precipitation and a slow warming trend.
&&
Aviation...
issued at 259 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Elsewhere...scattered to broken cumulus will persist through the day.
Ceilings will be primarily VFR. Skies will clear out around
sunset...though some high cirrus is possible. Once again
Monday...areas of low clouds and haze may form around sunrise.
However...stronger southerly low level flow should result in
somewhat higher ceilings and visibilities than observed early this morning.
&&
Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&
$$
Short term/fire weather...jp
long term/aviation...my
