Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
400 am CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
Short term...(today through monday)
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
Main near term forecast concern continues to be the precipitation
event Saturday night through Sunday night, including the potential
for...a wintry mix...
Dry and seasonably mild weather will continue today. With a fair
amount of sunshine, temperatures should have no problem reaching
the lower to mid 60s by afternoon. While dry weather is expected
across much of the area, a few rain showers may sneak into far
southern portions of the area near the Arkansas and Tennessee
borders by evening.
By tonight, the approach of southern stream energy and low pressure
developing over the Southern Plains will yield our next rain event.
Rain chances will be best over southeast Missouri as early as this
evening, but it may be well after midnight and perhaps closer to
daybreak Sunday before anything reaches the Evansville tri-state
area. Model forecast instability parameters suggest that most of the
thunder potential should remain just south of the immediate area.
Total precipitation through the event will range from as little as
one quarter to one half inch north of Interstate 64, to as much as 1
to 1.5 inches across much of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
GFS, NAM, and European model (ecmwf) are all in good agreement through most of the
event with respect to timing. However, all models are now beginning
to hint at a more rapid drop in temperatures on Sunday as cold air
rushes in on the back side of low pressure to our south. As a result,
it is looking more and more like precipitation will mix with and
change over to snow, sleet, and perhaps even a little freezing rain
during the late morning and afternoon hours from north to south.
Better chances for accumulation and resultant travel impacts appear
to be focused along a corridor from east central and southeast
Missouri, across The Heart of southern Illinois, and into southwest
Indiana. At this point, we anticipate the mixed nature of the wintry
precipitation will help to cut down on total accumulation, in
addition to a very wet ground from overnight rains. Nevertheless,
1 to 2 inches of snow and sleet is possible in the aforementioned
zone before the precipitation comes to an end Sunday night. I
would not be surprised to see an advisory eventually posted for
northern portions of the region. However, at this point, I would
rather give the models more time to fine tune the details before
deciding on the specifics.
Dry and much colder weather will return on Monday in the wake of the
precipitation event. Temperatures by daybreak Monday will range from
25 to 30 degrees. Afternoon highs will only range from the upper 30s
to mid 40s.
Long term...(monday night through friday)
issued at 330 am CDT Sat Mar 15 2014
The 00z runs of the ECMWF, GFS, Gem all have shifted farther north
with the mid-week system. This results in very little quantitative precipitation forecast for our
area, and they all bring the cold front through the area late
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The models seemed to be in
agreement yesterday, so have little confidence in the agreed upon
solution from this cycle. Decided to remove pops from all but the
extreme southeast border area Wednesday night, but kept the 20-30%
pops areawide for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures should
be plenty warm enough to support all rain showers with this event.
The 00z GFS and European model (ecmwf) are also in fairly good agreement this cycle
with another storm system passing eastward to our north Friday and
Friday night. The associated cold front comes through the area
Friday night, but the models cannot agree on whether or not there
will be any precipitation with it. The GFS generates a band of
around a tenth of an inch as it moves through our region, while the
European model (ecmwf) keeps it dry. Given less than consistent model solutions in
this fast nearly zonal flow aloft, will keep the forecast dry Friday
Surface high pressure will push east of the area Monday night
allowing southerly winds to return to the region. South or southwest
winds will increase and become gusty Tuesday and Tuesday night, so
we should warm back up to near normal levels Tuesday afternoon.
Tuesday night's lows should be quite mild and well above normal.
With the mid-week system lifting northeast and staying well north of
the area, surface winds will only veer to due west, so a major cool
off is not expected. Highs on Wednesday will only be down a few
degrees from Tuesday, and should be back to normal by Thursday as
winds back to the southwest late in the day.
The southwest winds will increase and become gusty again heading
into Friday, so look for a mild night followed by highs in the lower
60s throughout the area Friday. Friday night should be mild with
clouds and winds staying up just ahead of the cold front. Highs
Saturday will drop just a few degrees below normal again. Spring is
trying to take hold of the region, but it is taking its Sweet time.
issued at 1120 PM CDT Friday Mar 14 2014
Winds should become light rest of the night, with mainly clear
skies. A few high clouds especially just north of the Tennessee/Arkansas state
lines with KY/MO. Winds will become east-southeast Saturday below 10 kts with a
few high clouds possible. Mid clouds start to work in after 00z from