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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
144 am CST Wednesday Dec 2 2015

Short term...(today through Friday night)
issued at 143 am CST Wednesday Dec 2 2015

An upper level trof extending south from a closed low moving east
through the Midwest and Great Lakes will pass through the region
today. Really not expecting much in the way of precipitation with
this upper trof, but it will serve to bring in another round of
clouds, which would keep temps from warming out of the 40s at most
locations this afternoon. Some areas up along the I-64 corridor
may not make it out of the 30s.

Thereafter, a large dome of chilly high pressure will build in
from the west. Though sunshine should be plentiful by Thursday,
Max temps will probably stay in the 40s once again. Frosty
mornings coming up...esp Friday when may locations will start off
in the 20s.

Long term...(saturday through tuesday)
issued at 140 am CST Wednesday Dec 2 2015

Active meridional shortwave pattern in place during extended
forecast period, with main weather maker still in place for Monday.

Retrograding back through the deterministic numerical model suite
time steps, the origination zone of the expected weather next Monday
is tied to the cyclonic circulation east of the Aleutian chain in
the Gulf of Alaska. Timing issues with this system is playing havoc
with the downstream evolution (both in time and space) of the
Lee side closed low that develops in the Central Plains on

Needless to say, this will continue to create an variation of the
pop forecast plus or minus 20 percent until the system moves into
the northwest U.S. Thursday into Friday. For now, still keeping a
low pop advertised by the regionally initialized model blend

Otherwise, remainder of the forecast remains fairly consistent. The
European model (ecmwf) hints at a windy and warmer day just beyond the extended
forecast period. Will wait and see if this pattern remains in place.


issued at 1120 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

As high pressure overspreads the region, VFR conditions should
prevail at all sites through at least the first third of the
period. Beyond 15z MVFR cigs are possible at kevv/kowb as wrap
around moisture drops southeast across part of the region. Winds
overnight should be variable at or below 5 knots, then around 15z pick up
out of the west around 10 knots with gusts up to 18 knots possible
at kevv/kowb through 00z, then drop back off to at or below 10 knots.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...GM
long term...Smith

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