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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
635 am CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

updated aviation section for 12z tafs


Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 300 am CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 300 am CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/European model (ecmwf) Ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our northwest County warning forecast area
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off pops from northwest to southeast Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our Arkansas/Tennessee border counties
Wednesday. We have no pops in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the Ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.


issued at 635 am CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Low clouds finally made it to the taf sites by 11z. Most cigs are
VFR...but MVFR cigs reached kcgi. The clouds will inhibit any
significant fog formation. Based on the abundance of low clouds
upstream across Missouri and will take some time for
clearing to occur. Expect daytime heating to finally scatter out the
clouds late this morning or early this afternoon. Late
is likely that some low clouds or fog will develop in a weak
southwest wind flow of moist air.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...



Short term/
long term...ctn

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