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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
627 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

issued at 627 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12z taf issuance.


Short term...(today through Thursday night)
issued at 239 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Above average confidence through most of the short term with very
little going on and decent model agreement, then confidence drops
off during the very last of the period.

High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry
through Thursday. Toward the end of the short term period, the upper
ridge begins to break down allowing for a system/front over the
plains to approach our County Warning Area. Depending on which model you believe, by
12z Friday (the end of the short term period), the system/front will
either be exiting the southeast corner of our County Warning Area or just entering
the northwest corner. Either way precipitation chances will likely
spread southeast across our area Thursday night, but needless to
say, with such a disparity in timing of the aforementioned
system/front, getting a good handle on coverage and timing of
precipitation chances rather difficult at this time.

Temperatures should be above normal through the period with highs in
the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Long term...(friday through monday)
issued at 239 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Medium to above average confidence in the extended.

An upper level short wave and a surface reflection of a cold front
will move through Friday. The GFS has been locked into the passage
of this system since last week. The European model (ecmwf) has consistently been
slower but has come much closer to the GFS solution. The Canadian
was more in line with the slower European model (ecmwf) with the NAM timing closer to
the GFS. Since the timing is only about 6 hours difference opted to
go with a blend of the models for timing. Even with the faster GFS
we get a little surface based instability with Li's of negative one
and some cape. There is also k index values into the mid 30s which
would support elevated convection as well. Handled with an isolated
thunder chance. Much cooler and drier air filter in for the weekend.
By Sunday the flow turns back to the south ahead of the next cold
front which should move through Tuesday of next week. The available
moisture remains in question with the front next week. Will monitor
that system closely for possible introduction of pops.

Will go slightly below normal for temps this weekend but rapidly
recover as we head into next week.


issued at 627 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide VFR
conditions for all sites through the period. Winds will generally
be out of the north at or below 5 knots.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term/
long term/fire

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