Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
640 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015

Aviation...
00z tafs...a cold front will approach wwr/gag late
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise...VFR conditions and
a south wind will prevail.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Monday Jul 27 2015/

Discussion...
hot weather remains the primary concern over the next couple of
days...with increasing chances for showers and storms middle to late
week.

Middle level ridging continues across the Southern
Plains...resulting in another hot day. Observations over the last
two days show that with subsequent hot days...we do seem to be
slowly drying out. This has kept heat indices a bit lower than the
last few days over much of central and southern Oklahoma...but
areas of higher moisture have resulted in higher heat
indices...especially over eastern Oklahoma...and parts of
southwestern/west central Oklahoma. As this slight drying trend
looks to persist tomorrow...expect heat indices most places should
remain below the 105 degree threshold for heat advisory criteria.
The exception will be portions of north central Oklahoma...where
some models depict moisture pooling and resultant higher heat
indices during the afternoon/evening. As such...have opted to
issue a heat advisory for these areas...which may or may not need
to be expanded depending on temperature/moisture trends tomorrow.

Late tomorrow night...a weak front will move into northwestern
Oklahoma...bringing chances for showers and storms. Low rain
chances will then continue each day across mainly the northern
half of Oklahoma as we head into the weekend. The front along with
an expected increase in cloud cover...and weakening middle level
ridge should bring some relief from the heat for a few
days...though southern Oklahoma and western North Texas might not
see as much of a tamp down on temperatures as others. While
widespread severe weather is unlikely with this frontal system...a
few strong to marginally severe storms may occur during the
afternoon/evening hours Tuesday through Friday. The main concerns
with any stronger storms will be heavy rainfall...gusty
winds...and lightning.

From next weekend into early next week...riding looks to build
back into the region...with rising temperatures and drier
conditions.

Austin

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 74 101 72 97 / 0 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 75 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 73 100 69 90 / 0 20 40 40
Ponca City OK 76 98 76 92 / 0 0 20 20
Durant OK 75 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for okz013-018>020-
024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

Heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for okz007-008-012-
013-018>020.

Texas...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations