Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
544 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
the main concern is MVFR and lower conditions.
Overall...did not go as pessimistic with this set of tafs.
Current conditions are not expected to change much.
LIFR conditions near kwwr and kgag may linger for the next
24 hours. LIFR conditions may develop across of the rest of the
area...mainly 06-17z...but did not mention as confidence of
occurrence remains low. Will amend as necessary.
Isolated-scattered -shra may move into the area after 11z. Added tempo
mention at ksps 13-15z where confidence of occurrence is
Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
the forecast area will be on the north fringe of the precipitation
area tonight and Friday as an upper wave moves across the plains.
Expect precipitation to be liquid as there likely will not be much
overlap between the precipitation area south and the cooler low-
level air in the north. Low levels of the atmosphere remain quite
humid so will see areas of fog and drizzle again tonight. Another
upper trough moves into the plains Sunday and persists nearby on
Monday... but there will not have been much time for moisture
return so probability of precipitation will be relatively low. Although there is
relatively good agreement in the evolution of the upper pattern
middle-week next week... there are still some significant differences
especially with respect to timing of cold frontal passages. Will
have to continue to watch the evolution of the pattern as we
approach the holidays.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 37 45 34 50 / 20 20 10 0
Hobart OK 37 45 32 50 / 20 20 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 41 48 37 52 / 20 30 10 0
gage OK 31 45 29 52 / 10 20 0 0
Ponca City OK 32 42 31 49 / 10 10 10 0
Durant OK 41 48 38 51 / 30 40 20 0