Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
756 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
the upper-level wave that is supporting much of the precipitation
across the Southern Plains will continue to drift east overnight.
Based on the positions of these features...on radar/satellite
trends...and on short-range model predictions...we have adjusted
rain chances for the tonight period of the forecast. Most of the
changes involved higher probability of precipitation and rainfall amounts than the
Other adjustments included temperatures and dew points...which
have been affected quite significantly by the rain pattern.
Previous discussion... /issued 623 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
two bands of thunderstorms and rain will eventually merge into one as they drift
slowly east this evening...associated with a surface front and an
upper-level wave. As the wave passes over OK tonight...widespread
-ra...with embedded thunderstorms and rain...should develop over most of OK and North
Texas. The rain should gradually diminish from the west tomorrow
morning...only to redevelop as thunderstorms and rain near/east of I-44 in the
afternoon. Expect mainly VFR conditions outside thunderstorms and rain...but areas
of more persistent -ra overnight may see reduced visibilities in br.
Previous discussion... /issued 242 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/
the long awaited cold front is at our doorstep in northwest
Oklahoma. A band of showers and storms should form along the front
this evening and slowly make their way eastward overnight.
Instability and shear are such that widespread severe weather is not
expected...but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. The main
threat with these storms will be the heavy rainfall...leading to a
localized flooding potential.
The upper low looks to be moving slightly faster than previously
forecast...which will result in the area of heaviest rain being
shifted slightly eastward as well. Southwest portions of the County Warning Area to
north central Oklahoma could see some of the heaviest rain overnight.
Friday will see some lingering convection along a residual surface
trough...especially across central portions of Oklahoma. This will
persist into Saturday morning...then quickly clear out by Saturday
afternoon. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures
down on Friday...but the cooler weather will not last long.
As the trough moves out on Sunday...we will see a warmup and brief
dry period. Another front is forecast to come down on Monday and
stall around our northern border. Models are a little bit closer
together...but the European model (ecmwf) is still pushing the front farther south
than the GFS. Maintaining slight probability of precipitation around our northern border
Sunday night through Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 88 71 92 / 100 60 40 20
Hobart OK 70 90 70 95 / 90 40 40 10
Wichita Falls Texas 73 91 74 95 / 80 50 40 20
gage OK 66 88 66 93 / 60 20 20 10
Ponca City OK 71 88 69 91 / 80 60 40 20
Durant OK 74 91 73 92 / 50 50 50 40