Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 am CDT Thursday may 7 2015
severe threat continues to decrease tonight.
Large complex of storms with very heavy rain continues near the
Red River. This complex will continue to push southeast through
the night. Additional isolated to scattered storms will occur
north of the Red River...but should mainly stay below severe
limits. Cannot rule out marginal severe hail to quarter size and a
gust or two up to 60 miles per hour. Tornado threat has gone down
Strong gradient winds on the north side of the complex near the
Red River may briefly gust to 60 miles per hour over the next hour or two...near
Lawton...Duncan...and Pauls Valley. Will monitor...but do not plan
on issuing a High Wind Warning as these winds will be short lived
and vary quite a bit over space and time.
Aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.
have low confidence in the tafs.
Ongoing isolated-num thunderstorms and rain will continue through 12z...mainly near
klaw and ksps through 09z. Brief gusty winds and MVFR or lower
conditions will occur with the strongest storms.
Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions may form 09-18z...but not sure if
this will happen. Have many sites going to MVFR 12-18z.
VFR conditions will likely occur at all sites after 20z.
Additional isolated-num thunderstorms and rain will likely occur across the area after
20z. Did not mention due to low confidence of exact timing and
Previous discussion... /issued 700 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015/
the 00z aviation discussion follows....
00z tafs were delayed slightly by software issues. Confidence in
timing of weather elements remains poor beyond a few hours.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms and rain will continue this evening...possibly
affecting kokc...ksps within the next few hours. Thunderstorms and rain may continue
off and on all night...but predictability does not warrant
inclusion in tafs. Models continue to insist on low MVFR or IFR
ceilings tomorrow morning...which seems possible with the effects
of the storms. Diurnal lifting of the ceilings may be slower
tomorrow than today...delaying the onset of VFR or MVFR
conditions. There is a nearly equal chance of thunderstorms and rain everywhere
during the entire day tomorrow...but have limited mention in tafs
to the most climatologically favored times.
Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015/
a few severe storms have already developed in the minimally-capped
unstable/high-shear atmosphere that is over much of our forecast
area. We expect a few severe storms to continue through the
evening....mainly in the form of isolated supercells. Unlike last
night...no organized region of heavy rain is expected tonight.
Some storms may persist past midnight...but they will likely
remain scattered...and not an organized complex.
The chance for rain...including strong/severe storms...will
persist through the remainder of the week and weekend. There is
very little change to previous thinking about each day...with a
lower risk of severe weather on Thursday...somewhat higher on
Friday...much higher on Saturday...and diminishing from west to
east on Sunday.
Early next week should be a cool and quiet period...for a couple
of days...at least. Moisture and rain chances rise again midweek.