Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
251 PM CDT Friday Mar 14 2014
a slow moving front continues to move southward this afternoon.
Despite a return of northeast winds...little cooling has taken
place behind the front...and temperatures have managed to climb
into the upper 60s/low 70s. Gusty northeast winds behind the
front...coupled with low humidity and warm temperatures have lead
to increased wildfire danger today...but winds should begin to
decrease in speed later this afternoon into the early evening.
Tonight...the front will become stationary and more or less wash
out as surface low pressure deepens over western/central Texas. The first half
of tonight will feature increasing clouds and mild temperatures. A
shortwave trough will follow on the heels of this low as it tracks
eastward along the Red River. This will supply sufficient lift to
promote widespread showers and a few thunderstorms by 2 to 4 am
Saturday. Showers/storms will become more widespread during the
day Saturday. Meager instability will limit widespread
storms...but a few are likely to occur...especially over southern
and central parts of Oklahoma and North Texas. Given sufficient
instability...stronger storms may produce small hail and gusty
winds...as well as locally heavy rainfall. And speaking of
rainfall...many areas are primed to pick up between a half inch
and an inch...good news for the worsening drought.
The compact upper wave will continue to move east Saturday night
into Sunday...bringing an end to shower activity from west to
east. A strong cold front will bring a surge of cold air into the
Southern Plains...and a brief window will exist Sunday morning for
a mix of rain and snow over far north central Oklahoma.
However...given the fast-moving nature of the system and impeding
dry airmass...snow/ice accumulations will be very unlikely. The
main story Sunday will be the colder temperatures...and very
strong and gusty winds. We will likely need a Wind Advisory over
much of Oklahoma and North Texas from Sunday morning through
Sunday night. The combination of colder temperatures and strong
winds will generate wind chills in the 20s and 30s.
As we head into next week...the warm/cool...windy/calm paradigm
will continue as another front or two sweep across the region.
Confidence is high that the forecast will remain dry for the first
half of next week...and with warming temperatures and dry
conditions...expect fire weather will be the main concern.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 48 63 42 44 / 10 80 60 40
Hobart OK 44 62 39 51 / 20 60 50 10
Wichita Falls Texas 52 66 43 52 / 20 90 50 10
gage OK 41 66 35 49 / 0 30 40 0
Ponca City OK 41 66 39 43 / 0 50 60 40
Durant OK 54 64 48 48 / 20 100 80 30