Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
830 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
not much in the way of changes for tonight. Have increased cloud
cover across northwest as clouds move into that part of the state
from convection over the higher terrain of the Oklahoma and Texas
panhandles. Some of the models do keep this convection going
through the night and bring it right to the western border of the
body of Oklahoma by morning. However... for now will leave any
mention of precipitation out of the forecast and continue to monitor.
Previous discussion... /issued 657 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
VFR conditions are expected along with south winds...gusty during
Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015/
an upper ridge building across our area should maintain a quiet
weather pattern through the weekend, with seasonably normal
temperatures persisting and mild nights. Only small adjustments
were made to the temperature grids in the short range.
For Sunday night, a rather weak surface low is expected to develop
across the central and southern High Plains, along with an
associated surface trough. The strongest upper level forcing for this
weekend will be a trough digging across the far northern U.S.
However, with weak upper level support across the central and
Southern Plains, it is questionable whether the surface boundary will
advance very far into our area, if at all. Although long range
models still crank out quantitative precipitation forecast for Monday/Tuesday time frames, the
uncertainty for now will maintain low thunderstorms and rain probability of precipitation for days 6 and 7.
At the current time, the best chances for thunderstorms and rain developing would be
near the convergent surface boundary to our north.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 71 95 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 72 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 71 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 71 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 71 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0