Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014
refer to the 18z aviation forecast below...
strong and gusty south to southwest winds will prevail much of
today. As a front moves slowly southeastward...winds will shift to
the east and northeast. This will happen first at kgag/kwwr...and
spread southeast overnight tonight. Widespread cloudiness will
accompany the front...along with the chance for -ra and MVFR/IFR
ceilings...especially from khbr/kcsm northward to kgag/kwwr. -Ra will also
lead to reduced visibilities beginning around 12z and lasting into the
Previous discussion... /issued 1030 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/
Wind Advisory issued through 3 PM...
winds have started to gust near/over 40 miles per hour across portions of
central and western Oklahoma. Expect this trend to continue over
the next 4 to 5 hours as surface heating increases mixing within the
bl... and the surface pressure gradient remains tightened due to to
approaching surface trough across southwestern Kansas and the panhandles. Surface
analysis at 15z showed winds starting to veer to the west/northwest across
the OK Panhandle into western Kansas and southeastern Colorado.
Other than winds... temperature forecast remains on track... made only
minor adjustments as temperatures have started to increase a tad faster
across northwestern OK and western OK this morning.
Fire weather... no change to the current rfw... relative humidity values will
continue to drop through noon... with teens across far southwestern OK and
western North Texas by the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy ahead of the surface
trough/front through the afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 610 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/
please see the 12z aviation discussion below.
south winds around 20 to 30 knots are expected most of the
day...although they will slowly decrease during the late afternoon
hours. High clouds will pass overhead on and off throughout the
day with some brief clearing later this afternoon. The wind speeds
will drop significantly after sunset tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 510 am CDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014/
current wind gusts range from around 10 miles per hour up to 30 miles per hour from southeast
to northwest respectively early this morning. These winds are keeping
temperatures elevated. Batch of cirrus currently overhead associated with
weak shortwave trough will thin and move east throughout the day.
Decided to issue rfw for western OK and western North Texas where winds
will be strong enough and relative humidity low enough to result in critical fire
weather conditions there...especially early this afternoon after
Still expect 50-80 percent probability of precipitation for a good portion of OK Thursday as
a middle to upper shortwave trough passes overhead...with a trailing
cold front accompanying it. Enough moisture and lift will at
least support high probs of light rain with this feature. Still a
bit unclear on how much cold air advection will actually occur with the
front...but precipitation/cloud cover will definitely keep temperatures several
degrees below normal. Removed mention of thunder for Thursday
since any elevated instability should remain well south of our forecast area.
Rain chances should end quickly by late Thursday as drier middle level
air and shortwave ridging replaces the trough axis. Then...by
Saturday...a southern stream middle to upper trough will move into
the SW Continental U.S. And Gulf of California. An initial shortwave trough will
impact the area Saturday...while the main trough axis likely
passes over during the day Easter Sunday. Will continue with high
chance probability of precipitation/thunder late Sat through sun with low level moisture
returning and a front also in play by sun. Difficult to determine
severe potential right now...but southern zones appear to be
favored for the moment where middle/upper level flow will be
stronger combined with higher instability.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 67 46 60 46 / 0 10 70 20
Hobart OK 73 48 58 43 / 0 10 40 10
Wichita Falls Texas 72 50 63 49 / 0 10 50 20
gage OK 74 42 56 37 / 0 30 70 0
Ponca City OK 68 43 57 41 / 0 10 70 10
Durant OK 66 47 64 52 / 0 0 20 20
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for okz007-008-
Red flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for okz011-014>017-
Texas...red flag warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for txz083>089.