Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015
mainly middle/high clouds expected overnight with a gradual shift to
the south of the taf sites by midday Saturday. There will be areas
of light rain and sprinkles... but other than a couple of hours at
Special Weather Statement will not mention. Weak front that continue to linger in northwest
Oklahoma will make some progress south and east overnight into
Saturday morning with a shift to north winds behind it. However...
speeds are expected to remain below 12kts.
Previous discussion... /issued 309 PM CDT Friday Aug 28 2015/
determining rain chances tonight is the primary forecast challenge
of the day.
Overall...slightly lowered rain chances through tonight due to
weak forcing for producing rainfall. Did not go above 20 percent
in any given location.
Through midnight tonight...think a few light showers and
sprinkles will continue where there is some middle level moisture
convergence...generally near an Altus to Norman to Chandler line.
A few thunderstorms are possible as well mainly near an higher
instability axis exists from Hollis to Clinton to Cherokee. Any
storm is expected to be subsevere with perhaps a few strong wind
gusts up to 50 miles per hour and some localized downpours. Precipitation
coverage may diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating. Rainfall should rain sparse and under 0.10 inch in most
After midnight tonight...a few showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms may continue across the area...mainly south of a Elk
City to Ponca City line. Latest ruc13 suggested that the 850 mb
jet may increase over western North Texas and southern Oklahoma
which may allow for increased coverage of rain. However...
instability may be lacking. Thus...kept 20 percent chances in
Saturday...overall...partly to mostly sunny and dry weather can be
expected. Would not be completely surprised if a stray shower or storm
occurred south of a Quanah Texas to Oklahoma City to Chandler
line...but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.
Highs will be near to slightly above average...mainly in the 90s.
Saturday night through Friday...a dry weather pattern is forecast
with near or above average temperatures. There are some model
differences mainly in regards to the location and progression a
middle/upper trough somewhere over the Southern Plains or
southeastern U.S. At this time...think the deepest moisture and
higher rain chances will stay east of Oklahoma and North
Texas...but confidence is rather low.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 68 92 67 92 / 20 10 0 0
Hobart OK 68 96 66 96 / 20 10 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 74 98 68 98 / 20 10 10 10
gage OK 63 92 60 93 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 67 89 64 91 / 20 10 10 0
Durant OK 72 94 70 95 / 20 20 10 10