Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
the main challenge is forecasting MVFR/IFR conditions over
western Oklahoma and western North Texas.
For kokc...koun...and kpnc...have high confidence of VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours. -Ra will affect kokc
and koun through 0130z.
Other sites...including ksps...klaw...khbr...kcsm...
kwwr...and kgag...generally think conditions will worsen
to MVFR at all sites by 09z...though confidence is not
too high...especially near klaw...kwwr...and kgag. Did not make
significant changes to the previous tafs. IFR conditions will be
near ksps. Improving conditions will occur 14-16z. Have high
confidence all sites will be VFR by 18z. Any -ra/-dz will end
Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014/
rain is finally beginning to form over parts of western and
northern Oklahoma...although intensity is still very light. Low
rain chances will continue overnight over parts of central and
eastern Oklahoma...and adjacent parts of North Texas...but again
amounts are expected to be quite light.
After a quiet day tomorrow...rain chances will resume Saturday as
warm and moist air surges north again. Rain/thunderstorms are
likely to continue off and on through Monday as a series of waves
aloft drift over the Southern Plains. A few of the storms may be
strong or severe on Sunday afternoon and evening...but the overall
potential appears low...and significant organization is
Another storm system should arrive Wednesday and
Thursday...bringing another chance for rain and storms. The setup
on Thursday may support severe storms...but important model
differences greatly reduce confidence in this part of the
Temperatures will remain near or above the seasonal average for
most of the period.