Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1141 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015
aviation discussion for the 18z tafs is below.
have moderate confidence in the tafs.
Conditions will continue to worsen across the area through 06z.
Believe all sites will become IFR by 00z. LIFR conditions may
occur as well after 00z but did not mention due to low confidence
-Ra/rain will continue to move across the area...diminishing in
intensity to -ra or dz west to east 22-06z. Removed -rasn mention
after 10z at kpnc due to low chances of occurrence.
A cold front will bring increasing gusty north to northwest winds
as well as improving conditions. Think this front will move into
northwest Oklahoma 07-09z...then through ksps and koun by 14z.
Some gusts will exceed 30 knots after 12z.
Believe all sites will be MVFR or better by 18z Sunday.
Previous discussion... /issued 558 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015/
31/12z tafs...VFR conditions expected to give way to IFR
conditions as area of rain increases and moistens lower levels of
atmosphere. Rain will end across far western Oklahoma late this
afternoon and early evening. Cold front will enter northern and
western portions of Oklahoma overnight...bringing in strong north
winds and drier air. Significant improvement to aviation weather
expected just beyond this forecast cycle.
Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CST Sat Jan 31 2015/
widespread light and occasionally moderate rain will spread from
west to east today. Most of the rain will be fairly light but we
could still see storm total rainfall amounts around or slightly over
one inch from portions of western North Texas northeast toward and
just south and east of the okc metropolitan. Most of this rain is expected
to fall late this afternoon and this evening. No significant
deviations from previous few forecasts with rain shifting east
tonight and early Sunday. Latest run of models still yield
possibility for a change over or mix to snow late tonight and
early Sunday morning across far northern Oklahoma so we will leave
rain/snow wording up there. Minimal or no accumulation expected.
As rain shifts to the east Sunday ahead of high amplitude wave
passage into middle-Mississippi Valley...strong northerly winds will
spread over Oklahoma and northern Texas. Winds will likely
approach or perhaps exceed Wind Advisory criteria across at least
northern and central portions of Oklahoma...perhaps down into
western North Texas. This potential will be watched for possible
headline inclusion in later forecasts.
After a cold start Monday morning...a brief warming trend still
expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of next weather system. Middle-week
system could have sensible impacts on region Wednesday night into
Thursday if trend of GFS is realized. Model forecast soundings
yield a rain to snow and rain to freezing rain/sleet
scenario...with the snow potential mainly over north-central and
northeast Oklahoma. Probability of precipitation were retained and increased a bit from
model initializations. This event would be short-lived as we warm
up into next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 46 39 42 20 / 100 90 20 0
Hobart OK 43 39 44 21 / 100 60 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 47 43 49 24 / 100 80 20 0
gage OK 43 35 39 18 / 90 50 10 0
Ponca City OK 44 38 38 16 / 100 90 30 0
Durant OK 52 44 52 25 / 60 90 50 0