Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1036 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
reduced sky cover for today.
satellite shows that fog has cleared out and skies are mostly
clear. Could see a few cumulus develop this afternoon...but skies
should remain mostly clear. Everything else looks on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 542 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
12z tafs... VFR/MVFR conditions this morning. Ceilings will
improve this morning with some high clouds at times in the taf
period. Visibilities will be MVFR/VFR this morning. However...
some locations may have visibilities drop to IFR/LIFR levels.
There is uncertainty whether this will occur and if does occur
could be patchy in nature so not a mention in tafs for now but
will continue to monitor trends. Visibilities will improve by middle-
Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
patchy/areas of fog will be possible in some areas this morning.
Dense fog may also be possible but with the uncertainty of if/where
will hold off on any dense fog advisory and monitor trends for now.
However... hrr shows the best chance for dense fog would be in northwest
and parts of central OK early this morning. The fog is expected to
dissipate by around mid-morning. Otherwise... a warm and dry day
A shortwave is expected to move across the Southern Plains Wednesday
and Thursday bringing a chance for showers and isolated storms.
Overall... rainfall amounts are expected to remain light. After this
system moves away from the forecast area... models show an upper ridge
developing over the region that will continue to lead to above average
temperatures with highs in the 80s across most of the area Friday
through the weekend.
Models show the ridge shifting east as another upper system
approaches the central U.S early next week. This system would cause
a cold front to move across the region early next week with a chance
for showers and thunderstorms. The extent of the rain is in question
as the models differ on the strength of this system. The GFS is
weaker with the upper wave and keeps it more progressive so the
opportunity for rain will be shorter. Whereas the European model (ecmwf) is stronger
with the wave and in fact has a portion of it developing into a cut
off low that moves across the Southern Plains. If this were to
happen rain chances would linger for a longer period of time. Went
ahead with some probability of precipitation Monday and Tuesday... mainly with the cold
front that both models show moving across the area during that time.
Will need to watch model trends to see if probability of precipitation will need to be
extended further into the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 81 57 78 57 / 0 0 10 50
Hobart OK 82 56 76 57 / 0 0 30 50
Wichita Falls Texas 83 57 81 58 / 0 0 10 30
gage OK 81 54 74 53 / 0 0 30 40
Ponca City OK 79 55 79 58 / 0 0 10 50
Durant OK 81 58 79 55 / 0 0 10 20