Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.
VFR conditions and light winds are expected to continue.
There is a chance for MVFR conditions in br near kokc...
koun...kpnc...and ksps 08-15z...but will not mention due
to low confidence of occurrence.
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Friday Aug 1 2014/
skies continue to clear this afternoon across most of the forecast area. The
surface low has now moved into central la resulting in easterly flow
across c/southeast OK...while northerly flow continues over northwest OK along
a surface trough. An upper ridge axis is in place over West Texas and the
SW...while a trough resides over the upper Midwest and eastern
Continental U.S.. our forecast area will remain in northerly flow aloft through this
weekend although the upper ridge will begin to amplify over The
Rockies and shift to the east. Overall...a warming trend is
expected for the entire forecast period as thicknesses increase
with the previous. Increased temperatures a few degrees since it appears
the ridge may become a dominating factor...and both MOS and raw
By Wednesday...a Lee low will develop near the Panhandle as a weak
shortwave trough rounds the ridge. Its unclear how far south this
feature will be...but think schc to low chance probability of precipitation for the extreme NE
zones still appear reasonable. Low rain chances will continue
Thursday as another middle level trough rounds the ridge...specifically
across the east and NE. The cold front that was originally
anticipated to make it all the way into our region by late next
week now appears it will stall somewhere near Kansas late in the
extended so have removed any high probability of precipitation from the forecast for now.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 65 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 67 88 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 59 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 66 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0