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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Discussion...
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.

&&

Aviation...
mainly VFR conditions are expected. -Shra/-tsra timing and
locations remain very uncertain.

Have high confidence all sites will remain VFR through 10z...
then lower confidence after 10z...especially west of kpnc-kokc-
kdfw. Locations west of kpnc-kokc-kdfw are most likely to
experience MVFR conditions at times after 12z. Widespread IFR
conditions may develop over western Oklahoma and western North
Texas after 02z Monday...but will not mention due to low
confidence of occurrence.

Isolated-scattered -shra will develop and move into western Oklahoma and
western North Texas after 09z. Kokc may be affected by -shra as
early as 12z...but will likely remain dry through 18z. Ksps and
klaw will likely be affected by -shra 12-18z. Thunderstorms and rain potential is
highest at these sites 21-01z...so will keep thunderstorms in the vicinity.

Mbs

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1046 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Update...
given current state of shower activity over west/central
Texas...opted to go ahead and trim back probability of precipitation through much of
tonight. Most recent runs of the hrrr suggest some light shower
activity/a stray storm may move into far southwest Oklahoma or
western North Texas from 4 am through sunrise. This activity
should generally expand north and east through the day...with a
few storms mingled in by afternoon. Current observation show fairly mild
temperatures...and increasing cloud cover atop southeast surface winds should
allow only modest cooling into the morning...thus have increased
morning lows. Also made minor tweaks to temperatures...dewpoints...and
winds to reflect recent trends.

Previous discussion... /issued 647 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Discussion...
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

Aviation...
mainly VFR conditions are expected. -Shra/-tsra timing and
locations remain very uncertain.

Have high confidence all sites will remain VFR through 12z...
then lower confidence after 12z...especially west of kpnc-kokc-
kdfw. These locations west of kpnc-kokc-kdfw are most likely to
experience MVFR conditions at times after 12z.

Ongoing rain showers/thunderstorms and rain near kama and west of kcds will likely
dissipate before moving into western Oklahoma. Additional rain showers
may develop over western Oklahoma after 04z...but better chances
will not occur until 09z. Kokc may be affected by -shra as early
as 12z...but will likely remain dry through 19z. Ksps and klaw may
be affected by -shra as early as 08z...but better chances will
hold off until after 12z.

Mbs

Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Discussion...
organized precipitation will likely struggle to impact body of
Oklahoma and western North Texas until midnight or later.
However...cannot rule out a few showers moving into far western
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of North Texas this evening but they
are expected to be spotty and very light. Some organization
possible after midnight into Sunday morning mainly southwest
Oklahoma and western North Texas as exit region of stronger jet
shifts out of southwest Texas. At this time...organized severe weather
chances appear quite low over our County Warning Area with limited
instability...but marginal hail threat appears possible mainly
over western North Texas tomorrow afternoon if enough
clearing/destabilization can be realized. Will maintain shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday night through Monday until upper
trough and associated frontal boundary shift east/south of
forecast area. No severe weather impacts expected Monday with
frontal passage.

Windy conditions return Wednesday ahead of advertised long-wave
trough. Better flow and sufficient instability to sustained severe
storms appear higher Wednesday than we have seen recently. Ecm is
slightly more amplified and faster than GFS but both point to
potential for dryline development near western OK border late
Wednesday and progress eastward over region Wednesday night and
Thursday. Elevated wildfire day possible Thursday if winds end up
being stronger than advertised.

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

84/17/17