Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
938 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Discussion... no sig changes to current forecast. Showers/thunderstorms are
moving off the High Plains this evening and may make it into northern/western
parts of the forecast area later tonight before dissipating. Best chances will
be in far northwest OK where low level jet will be a little stronger.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
Aviation...
storms northwest of the area will likely dissipate before reaching
Oklahoma... although there is an outside chance for storms at kgag
and kwwr late tonight/Wednesday morning. There is also an outside
chance of MVFR stratus development around sunrise at ksps and
klaw. Neither scenario has a high enough probability to warrant
inclusion in this set of tafs. Relatively light southeast winds
will increase from the south or southeast across the area after
sunrise.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 403 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013/
Discussion...
slightly below average afternoon temperatures are in place across OK and
North Texas under the influence of a surface high extending from the
central Midwest through NE OK. A middle level shortwave trough and
remnant mesoscale convective vortex continue to spawn thunderstorms across NE Texas and into
northern la. Additional moist convection is also present across north
central Kansas and The Rockies of Colorado and northern nm along a surface
trough. Coverage will likely continue to increase late this
after/early this evening as a shortwave trough enters Colorado early this
evening. In addition...a cumulus field has developed over the Texas
Panhandle along a stationary front. Its unclear whether an mesoscale convective system
will develop off the High Plains north of the Panhandle this
evening and move into our northern zones...or how much coverage
will develop across the Panhandle. However...think at least low chance
probability of precipitation are reasonable across the northwest on the fringe of the
ridge axis through tonight and early tomorrow morning. Also
introduced isolated T for most other locations through 12-18z tomorrow
morning as aforementioned shortwave trough and associated middle
level cold pocket may support such over our area. Subsidence will
then quickly follow by middle day Wednesday through early Wednesday afternoon
across much of the area.
An additional middle level shortwave trough is then expected within
the SW flow across the southern and central rockies by early Wednesday
afternoon and late Wednesday night. As a result...thunderstorms will
likely redevelop along a Lee surface trough near eastern Colorado and the
panhandles. Probability of precipitation appear more likely (high chc) across the northern
half of OK by late Wednesday nigh and early Thursday morning as this
feature rounds the middle level ridge axis...and slight chances may
linger through middle day Thursday across the extreme east/NE half of
our forecast area. A similar scenario will continue through this
weekend...however the subtropical ridge should strengthen and most
probability of precipitation should remain limited to western and northwest OK along the
northwestern fringe of it where shortwave troughs within the middle
level SW flow are expected. Otherwise...expect a warming trend
through at least this weekend considering the previously mentioned
strengthening ridge.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 67 86 69 90 / 10 20 20 10
Hobart OK 68 90 71 96 / 10 20 30 10
Wichita Falls Texas 70 91 73 96 / 10 10 20 10
gage OK 66 87 69 94 / 30 30 20 30
Ponca City OK 67 87 70 90 / 10 20 40 20
Durant OK 68 88 70 92 / 10 20 10 10
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
