Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
refer to the 06z aviation forecast below...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the taf
period. Expect southeast winds to veer to southwest from 12z to
15z Friday...becoming gusty during the afternoon hours. Winds will
then decrease through the evening hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 925 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
it appears that the Last Chance for rain before Sunday has ended
across central and western Oklahoma and western North Texas. An
outflow boundary from the earlier convection moved west across
central Oklahoma earlier...but has become very diffuse and will
continue to dissipate overnight. A fairly strong temperature/dew
point boundary coincident with the outflow boundary will likewise
This update includes minor adjustments to hourly forecasts of
temperature and humidity...and rain chances were removed earlier.
Previous discussion... /issued 630 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
refer to the 00z aviation forecast below...
VFR conditions to prevail this taf period. Isolated storms will
be possible through around 00z...but will remain east of
terminals. Pronounced outflow boundary from earlier storms has
resulted in easterly wind shift from kpnc southward to kokc/koun. This
boundary will essentially wash out as srly flow resumes overnight.
Breezy and gusty south winds to resume at all terminals around 15z
Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
a small area of convection over Payne/Lincoln counties should
continue into northeast/east central Oklahoma this afternoon.
Meanwhile... much drier air is located across part of North Texas/southern
Oklahoma this afternoon. Nearcast model captured this well earlier
this morning. Weak convergence and heating may allow an isolated
storm to form over central Oklahoma between 4 and 7 PM...otherwise
probability of precipitation for tonight will be at or below 10 percent.
An upper low over northern Mexico and tropical moisture in south
Texas...will remain south of the forecast area. A ridge...centered to our
west...will build eastward Friday into Sunday. This will bring a
period of very hot and dry weather with most locations reaching
A cold front is forecast to move across Oklahoma and North Texas
late Sunday into Monday...at least an initial wind shift. Better
cold air advection will arrive Monday night into Tuesday. Rain and storm chances
with the front will be highest Monday night into Tuesday and again
Wednesday into Thursday as a wave approaches.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 94 73 99 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 73 96 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 74 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 70 95 71 100 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 72 96 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 74 97 75 100 / 0 0 0 0