Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1135 am CST sun Feb 1 2015
aviation discussion for the 18z tafs is below.
the main concern is strong winds through 00z.
Strong and gusty north to northwest surface winds will continue through
at least 23z. These winds will diminish 23-12z...but not sure how quickly
they will decrease. Surface winds will switch to the south at all sites
MVFR ceilings will be in patches...except near kpnc. Have high confidence
that all sites will become VFR by 00z.
Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST sun Feb 1 2015/
scattered light showers and areas of drizzle remain over northern
and eastern half of Oklahoma early this morning. Will include
mention of showers and drizzle/fog through middle-morning before
drier air spreads over the region behind strong front. Will keep
mention of rain over mainly north-central Oklahoma closer in
proximity to Post frontal wrap-around precipitation. Chances are not
zero for a brief change-over to snow up around Medford-Ponca City
areas but we are leaving forecast all rain.
Strong winds will occur behind the front...and with mixing and
strong cold advection...should see at least marginal Wind Advisory
level winds mainly over northern and central parts of Oklahoma.
Cold night tonight with temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind
chills in the single digits many locations late tonight and early
Next challenge will be middle-week precipitation and type. GFS and
Gem continue to show higher amplitude shortwave and greater coverage of
precipitation...although light. Fairly consistent solutions from
run to run will allow for US to keep probability of precipitation going and even allow the
increase initialized from consensus blends. Type of precipitation appears
problematic with a rapid change from rain to freezing rain late
Wednesday before change to snow on Thursday suggested by forecast
soundings. Greatest impacts currently appear to be north of I-40.
Although amounts will be relatively light if this system comes
together like majority of models suggest...timing and chance for
light ice accumulations will warrant close monitoring of model
Still looks like substantial warmup into next weekend.
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz005>008-010>013-