Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
303 am CDT Thursday Apr 2 2015
initial surface cold front entering northwest Oklahoma this morning
will stall somewhere near or just north of I-40 around midday
before lifting back north late today. A dryline will trail south
from the front near the I-35 corridor. Near and east of these
boundaries will be a rather unstable airmass. Although expect much
of the area to remain capped through the day could get close to
breaking the cap by late in the day near the dryline as temperatures to
the west of the dryline warm to near 90 degrees. So... if a storm
can break through... expect it to be capable of very large hail...
mainly affecting parts of south central and southeast OK.
Better rain/thunderstorm chances will remain off to our north and
east today into tonight as upper disturbance moves through the
plains. This disturbance will drive a rather strong cold front
south through the area overnight tonight into Friday morning with
much cooler/drier air and strong gusty north winds. May
approach/reach Wind Advisory for a few hours Post frontal. There
could also be a few showers or even elevated storms across
northern Oklahoma into Friday morning. Otherwise... cooler and
drier conditions will last a couple of days. A near 1030mb high
will settle south over the area by Saturday morning with northern
into western Oklahoma dropping into the middle/lower 30s.
Warm advection kicks in Sat night into Easter Sunday... resulting
in a quick return of precipitation to the area. Have continue to ramp up
precipitation chances... especially across the Red River valley into
southern OK on Sunday.
Another storm system will aid in driving a surface low out into the
plains on Monday with a dryline pushing east through parts of
western OK and western North Texas. This will elevate fire weather
concerns... Monday afternoon in those areas.
Models bring another rather strong surface cold front through the area
by middle of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 83 54 62 39 / 10 10 10 0
Hobart OK 83 50 64 37 / 0 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 88 60 67 41 / 10 10 0 0
gage OK 80 43 62 34 / 10 10 10 0
Ponca City OK 81 48 61 35 / 20 30 10 0
Durant OK 82 66 70 42 / 20 20 10 0