Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
232 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014
the main weather concern is strong wind through early this evening.
Over the past 2 to 3 hours...advisory criteria winds with gusts
40 to 54 miles per hour have occurred across western Oklahoma. This corridor
of stronger winds lag about 100 miles west of the actual cold
front that was near a Seminole to Waurika line as of 215 PM. These
strong winds will shift east over the next few hours with the Oklahoma
City metropolitan...Ponca City...and Duncan areas being affected between
330 and 6 PM with north to northwest gusts 40 to 45 miles per hour.
Current advisory is in fair shape at the moment...though may need
to be extended an hour or two east of a Alva to Vernon Texas line
as winds may be slow to diminish around sunset due to cloud cover
and strong low level cold air advection. Not to mention...advisory
winds may affect locations east of a Seminole to Marietta line
which are not in the current advisory. For now...will not extend
or expand the advisory as not sure strong winds will continue
beyond 6 PM with the loss of daytime heating.
Latest radars indicated light returns over northern Oklahoma
which are expected to expand south of the next few hours. Light
rain or sprinkles are possible with this activity...though some
middle level dry air will keep any rainfall light and spotty. Kept 20
to 50 percent mention through this evening...mainly across
Winds will diminish west to east this evening as skies clear.
Model guidance lows slightly below average tonight seem to be on
track...mainly in the middle 20s to upper 30s.
Monday will be mostly sunny and seasonably cool with lighter winds
Monday night into Tuesday...a weak middle level disturbance will move
through the area...bringing some middle and high clouds. Kept a dry
forecast due to the lack of moisture...though the latest 12z
nam12 run indicated light quantitative precipitation forecast near the Red River.
Tuesday night through next Sunday...quiet weather is forecast.
Confidence of dry weather seems to be rather high before
Saturday. However...confidence in forecast temperatures is
low...especially beyond Thanksgiving day...as a front may be
nearby. Latest models have been suggesting a warmer regime towards
the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 33 58 30 54 / 20 0 0 0
Hobart OK 31 57 29 54 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 35 59 33 57 / 10 0 0 0
gage OK 27 55 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 31 55 26 50 / 50 0 0 0
Durant OK 38 58 36 57 / 10 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz004>030-033>041-
Texas...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz083>090.