Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
1136 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014

aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.


the main concern is MVFR and lower conditions.

LIFR conditions with -dz near kokc and koun will likely linger
through 16z...though there is a chance these conditions may
improve as early 09z. LIFR conditions near kwwr and kgag may
linger for the next 24 hours. Think LIFR conditions will stay just
north of ksps and klaw...but will monitor as these locations may
have these lower conditions as well. Kpnc may bounce between MVFR
and IFR...but think MVFR will mainly occur.

Generally went with slightly improving conditions across the
entire area after 16z...though confidence remains rather low.
At best...locations will be MVFR by 00z Saturday.

Isolated-scattered -shra may move into SW OK and North Texas through 20z. Went with
vcsh near ksps...klaw...and khbr as not sure these sites will be
directly affected.



Previous discussion... /issued 738 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/

patchy drizzle will remain possible overnight across parts of the
forecast area. Patchy fog will also be possible everywhere into Friday
morning. As shortwave approaches and moves across the Southern
Plains... light rain will also become possible starting later
tonight into Friday. With cloudy skies overnight... temperatures
are not expected to drop significantly despite the relatively
light winds.

Have adjusted pop grids to adjust for start of rain chances also
adjusted areas of mention of patchy drizzle/fog in weather grids.
Tweaked hourly grids to show current trends. Updates out soon.

Previous discussion... /issued 544 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/

aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.

the main concern is MVFR and lower conditions.

Overall...did not go as pessimistic with this set of tafs.
Current conditions are not expected to change much.
LIFR conditions near kwwr and kgag may linger for the next
24 hours. LIFR conditions may develop across of the rest of the
area...mainly 06-17z...but did not mention as confidence of
occurrence remains low. Will amend as necessary.

Isolated-scattered -shra may move into the area after 11z. Added tempo
mention at ksps 13-15z where confidence of occurrence is
slightly higher.


Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/

the forecast area will be on the north fringe of the precipitation
area tonight and Friday as an upper wave moves across the plains.
Expect precipitation to be liquid as there likely will not be much
overlap between the precipitation area south and the cooler low-
level air in the north. Low levels of the atmosphere remain quite
humid so will see areas of fog and drizzle again tonight. Another
upper trough moves into the plains Sunday and persists nearby on
Monday... but there will not have been much time for moisture
return so probability of precipitation will be relatively low. Although there is
relatively good agreement in the evolution of the upper pattern
middle-week next week... there are still some significant differences
especially with respect to timing of cold frontal passages. Will
have to continue to watch the evolution of the pattern as we
approach the holidays.


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations