Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
641 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015
the 06/12z taf discussion is below.
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period.
Widespread stratus/altostratus has rapidly developed across all
taf sites except ksps. Ceilings have remained VFR between
4500-8000 feet. Expect broken to overcast skies to continue through
at least this morning. The clouds are expected to persist the
longest at kpnc.
Overnight...stratus may redevelop...however...ceilings are
expected to remain VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 341 am CDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015/
light winds and relative humidity near or at saturation is
resulting in patchy fog this morning...especially in low-lying
areas. Expect any fog to dissipate by mid-morning.
A steady warming trend is expected from today through Thursday
ahead of the next cold front. An upper-level low currently located
in Southern California is forecast to slowly drift eastward into
southern New Mexico through Wednesday before retrograding to the
southwest into northern Mexico on Thursday. This will keep the
greatest ascent in association with the upper-level low to the
southwest. However...parts of western North Texas and western
Oklahoma may be on the eastern periphery of its influence.
A short wave trough progressing across the Central Plains will
bring a cold front into Oklahoma late Thursday into Friday.
Overall...with the greatest lift with the front to the northeast
and the greatest lift with the upper-level low to the
southwest...shower and thunderstorm chances have decreased in the
Thursday to Friday period. This is in agreement with the quantitative precipitation forecast
signals of the GFS/ECMWF/NAM. The outlier is the Canadian...which
is the most aggressive with the quantitative precipitation forecast. Expect seasonable
temperatures behind the front on Friday and Saturday with middle-70s
to low 80s areawide.
By Sunday and Monday...a significant warming trend is possible.
On Monday...06/00z GFS 850 mb temperatures are prognosticated to be 22-26c with
a middle-level ridge to the south. This indicates that temperatures
may warm well into the 80s and low 90s...which would be around 10
degrees above average. The 05/12z European model (ecmwf) was in agreement with this
solution. However...the latest 06/00z European model (ecmwf) is faster with the
next front. For now...will maintain a warming trend through Monday
ahead of a weak frontal passage on Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 79 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 10
Hobart OK 80 59 84 61 / 0 0 10 20
Wichita Falls Texas 82 60 86 63 / 0 0 10 10
gage OK 79 57 80 58 / 0 10 20 10
Ponca City OK 78 57 82 60 / 0 0 10 0
Durant OK 83 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 10