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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
945 am CST sun Mar 1 2015

Update...
made a few minor tweaks to the forecast for today. With light
northeasterly winds and overcast skies...decreased afternoon
temperatures several degrees. Temperatures should generally remain
at or below freezing most of the day across northern and western
Oklahoma. Otherwise...highs will range from the lower 30s central
to middle 30s across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. With freezing
temperatures hanging on a bit longer...kept mention of drizzle or
freezing drizzle in through the afternoon. Travel conditions will
remain poor on untreated and secondary roads...as only modest
melting will occur...and roads likely ice over once again tonight.

Austin

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 527 am CST sun Mar 1 2015/

Aviation...
IFR ceilings are expected most of the time until 021200. Light
freezing drizzle will be intermittent in the southeast half of
Oklahoma until middle-day today. Warm and moist air aloft will again
bring a chance for freezing rain early Monday in southern Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of North Texas.

Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CST sun Mar 1 2015/

Discussion...
the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended through most of the
morning for much of southwest, central and south central Oklahoma.
Light freezing drizzle continues in most of these areas and the
advection pattern associated with it is forecast to maintain until
a few hours after sunrise. The previously-issued advisory for northwest
OK will expire at 6 am after a low risk for some sleet passes to
the northeast. The cold surface layer will hold through Monday and
winds in the boundary layer will continue weak transport of
moisture over the top of the cold airmass. Periods of drizzle or
sometimes light rain are possible until this patter erodes on
Tuesday. Surface temperatures Monday morning will be below
freezing. Although chances are low and mainly in the south, any
drizzle would freeze at night. Tuesday brings a big change with
models indicating a rapid removal of the cold air from southwest
Oklahoma toward the east and northeast ahead of a strong cold
front. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS and surrounding office consensus is that
the front will move into northern Oklahoma middle-day Tuesday and
bring quickly falling temperatures. There is a brief window for
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon mainly south and east of Oklahoma
City. A chance of snow, and possibly sleet come early Wednesday
with the approach of a fast-moving wave in the northern branch of
prevailing winds. Presently,there are likely probability of precipitation for mixed
precipitation in southeast Oklahoma later Wednesday. Drier weather
and increasing temperatures follow into the weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 27 39 38 53 / 10 30 50 30
Hobart OK 26 39 37 58 / 20 20 30 20
Wichita Falls Texas 31 41 40 62 / 30 40 50 30
gage OK 22 39 35 58 / 10 20 20 10
Ponca City OK 21 38 35 54 / 10 20 50 40
Durant OK 33 43 41 62 / 40 40 60 60

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am CST this morning for okz013-
018>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.

Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 am CST this morning for
txz083>090.

&&

$$

84/11

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