Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014
the 18z aviation discussion follows....
the large area of low clouds over the north 1/2 of OK will diminish
fairly rapidly this afternoon...and should leave the entire
region in VFR conditions by 2200z. A new layer around 5000 feet is
likely to form and affect most taf sites this afternoon and
evening. The lower layers are then expected to thin out
overnight...and some br may occur around sunrise from I-44/I-35
east. Expect increasing S winds tomorrow with VFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 1011 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014/
removed morning fog/rain chances. Made small adjustments to
afternoon temperatures and rain chances.
muggy conditions will occur today.
Fog over southern and southeastern Oklahoma has lifted...so
removed morning fog mention.
A weak front had stalled near a Hobart to Seminole line. North of
this front...low clouds were in place as of 10 am...and may be
slow to clear...especially near Ponca City. Thus...lowered highs a
bit near this location. South of the weak front...more sun has
allowed for more heating...thus raised highs a few degrees.
A few pulse showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into early evening south of the front across southern Oklahoma and
western North Texas. Generally kept 20 percent chances in these
locations as coverage should be sparse without middle/upper forcing.
Strong or severe storms seem unlikely due to weak shear and weak
middle level lapse rates...though any storm would move very slowly
which could lead to locally heavy rainfall over an inch in a small
area less than an hour.
Products have been updated.
Previous discussion... /issued 642 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014/
12z tafs...surface observation indicate MVFR ceilings cover roughly
the northern third of Oklahoma early this morning with mainly
VFR conditions elsewhere. The exception is areas of fog...some
dense...over south central/southeast Oklahoma where less cloud
cover...light winds and high humidity are.
Lower clouds have generally formed behind a weak front that has
nearly stalled across central and southwest Oklahoma. Sun and a
gradual shift back to southeast winds should improve MVFR
conditions over northern Oklahoma this afternoon.
Some light fog and perhaps MVFR ceilings may develop for a few
hours around and near oun/okc/csm.
South winds and VFR conditions should prevail this evening into
the overnight at all taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014/
slightly drier air is in place across northern/west central Oklahoma
behind a weak cold front. The front should continue a slow
movement southward...especially across southwest Oklahoma...before
stalling. Will keep slight chances for showers in the forecast
this morning in southern Oklahoma and North Texas where better
middle- level moisture remains. By late this afternoon...a few
showers or storms may form in southern Oklahoma/North Texas during
Tuesday night and again Wednesday night...elevated showers and
storms may develop north and east of the forecast area within an area of warm air advection.
Storms should move/develop southward.
By late week...the remnants of Odile will track across the
southern/Central Plains...in advance of a West Coast trough. This
should result in a good chance of showers and thunderstorms...as
a cold front moves across Oklahoma and North Texas...Saturday into
Sunday. Some timing differences remain with regards to the frontal
timing...so will keep probability of precipitation lower than some guidance.
Monday and Tuesday of next week appear dry with near normal
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 88 68 89 69 / 10 10 20 10
Hobart OK 92 68 90 69 / 20 10 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 89 70 90 71 / 20 20 20 20
gage OK 85 65 91 65 / 0 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 78 66 89 67 / 10 20 20 30
Durant OK 88 69 89 70 / 20 10 20 20