Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
609 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015
Aviation...29/00z taf issuance...
another active aviation period... severe convection will impact
ksps at the start of the period... with gusty winds 40 to 60 miles per hour
possible and frequent lightning. Storms will move through
relatively quickly... with -ra/vcsh by 01 to 02z. Thunderstorms and rain will also
slowly lift north impacting klaw through the first few hours of
the period. For the remainder of the night... expect storms to
evolve with the increase in the low level jet... similar to last
night... still have low confidence in coverage and timing... but
enough to warrant tempos from central OK through southwestern OK through
Friday morning. Stay aware for amendments overnight and through
the morning hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015/
our attention remains squarely focused on heavy rain/flooding and
severe weather potential today through Saturday night.
Severe storms have developed early this afternoon within a very
moist and unstable environment. As a broad upper level storm
system meanders across the Southern Plains...expect storms to
become more numerous through the evening hours. Storms have
remained somewhat discrete so far...but with cold pool mergers...a
large east or southeastward moving complex is likely. A couple of
tornadoes may accompany the initial storms...but the threat will
transition more to a large hail/damaging wind/flooding threat this
evening and tonight. The complex should move eastward...bringing
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to much of central and
southern Oklahoma...and western North Texas.
Showers and a few storms may linger into the first part of
tomorrow. Another complex of storms may then form late tomorrow
afternoon and evening...and move from west central and
southwestern Oklahoma...into western North Texas and south central
Oklahoma...bringing another batch of heavy rainfall to areas the
receive heavy rain today. Some severe potential will also likely
accompany storms tomorrow...but the primary concern will be heavy
rain and flooding.
A front will move across Oklahoma and into northern and central
Texas overnight tomorrow night into the day on Saturday.
Widespread storms will remain possible during this time. Storms
along and south of the boundary will have some severe
potential...while moderate to heavy rainfall may exist
along/behind the boundary. Again...persistent heavy rainfall over
the same areas will result in a noted flash flooding threat...and
increased threat of worsening river flooding.
With the continued risk of heavy rains and flooding...will go
ahead and keep the Flash Flood Watch intact through 12z Sunday.
Though portions of northwestern Oklahoma may not see quite as much
rain as other areas...heavy rain in a short duration may still
pose a threat of flash flooding in localized areas.
Once the front clears the area Saturday afternoon or Sunday
night...a cooler drier airmass will fill into Oklahoma and North
Texas. Weak middle level ridging looks to build into the Southern
Plains early next week...which should cut off rain chances for at
least a few days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 80 62 73 / 70 60 70 40
Hobart OK 63 80 60 74 / 60 40 70 40
Wichita Falls Texas 65 83 64 77 / 100 40 70 50
gage OK 61 80 56 72 / 50 40 50 20
Ponca City OK 66 81 61 73 / 70 50 60 20
Durant OK 67 81 65 77 / 90 60 70 70
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for okz004>048-050>052.
Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for txz083>090.