Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
445 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015
gusty north/northwest winds will gradually diminish this evening
with VFR conditions. Light winds by morning will gradually shift
back to the south by afternoon with some gusts in northwest OK
approaching 20kts. A few afternoon cumulus... otherwise continue with VFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 226 PM CST sun Feb 1 2015/
cold and windy weather will occur through tonight. A light wintry
mix of precipitation late Wednesday into early Thursday is another
Colder air has arrived to the area with temperatures mainly in
the 30s and 40s with will chills in the teens to 30s.
Will leave Wind Advisory alone for now as it is in fine shape.
Think several gusts 40 to 45 miles per hour with perhaps a few to 50 miles per hour will
continue through sunset across the advisory area. A few gusts
over 40 miles per hour may occur outside of the advisory area mainly across
the far western edge of Oklahoma.
Tonight...clearing conditions will allow for a chilly night.
Winds will be slow to diminish. Used a blend of guidance lows...
favoring the colder numbers from the teens to the middle 20s. Winds
may become very light by sunrise which may allow temperatures to
fall very rapidly.
Monday...wind chills in the morning will be low side...single
digits and teens...though winds should be much lighter than
today. Abundant sunshine and winds turning to the south should
allow for decent heating during the day.
Monday night through Tuesday night...dry and milder weather
will occur. Went towards the warmer side of guidance highs on
Tuesday due to abundant sun and southwest winds to support
Wednesday through Thursday...will monitor closely the potential
for some light wintry precipitation behind the passage of a strong
surface cold front. The timing of the front remains uncertain
based on latest models. Went with the faster and colder 12z
GFS/Gem/ECMWF solutions. Moisture may be limited...however there
is a signal for light quantitative precipitation forecast amounts across the area mainly Wednesday
night. With surface temperatures falling below freezing...a light
wintry mix of precipitation may result and could pose some hazard
to travel Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation types and
amounts remain quite uncertain. Temperatures on Wednesday may be
tricky due to the timing of cold front passage.
Thursday night through next Sunday...a big warming trend along
with dry weather can be expected. Above average temperatures will
result. Temperatures on Saturday may be more than 20 degrees above
average in places. Fire weather concerns may increase during this
time frame...though it does not appear that winds will be
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 17 41 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 17 43 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 21 45 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 12 47 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 11 38 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 24 43 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz005>008-010>013-