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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
700 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015

the 00z aviation discussion follows....


00z tafs were delayed slightly by software issues. Confidence in
timing of weather elements remains poor beyond a few hours.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms and rain will continue this evening...possibly
affecting kokc...ksps within the next few hours. Thunderstorms and rain may continue
off and on all night...but predictability does not warrant
inclusion in tafs. Models continue to insist on low MVFR or IFR
ceilings tomorrow morning...which seems possible with the effects
of the storms. Diurnal lifting of the ceilings may be slower
tomorrow than today...delaying the onset of VFR or MVFR
conditions. There is a nearly equal chance of thunderstorms and rain everywhere
during the entire day tomorrow...but have limited mention in tafs
to the most climatologically favored times.


Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Wednesday may 6 2015/

a few severe storms have already developed in the minimally-capped
unstable/high-shear atmosphere that is over much of our forecast
area. We expect a few severe storms to continue through the
evening....mainly in the form of isolated supercells. Unlike last organized region of heavy rain is expected tonight.
Some storms may persist past midnight...but they will likely
remain scattered...and not an organized complex.

The chance for rain...including strong/severe storms...will
persist through the remainder of the week and weekend. There is
very little change to previous thinking about each day...with a
lower risk of severe weather on Thursday...somewhat higher on
Friday...much higher on Saturday...and diminishing from west to
east on Sunday.

Early next week should be a cool and quiet period...for a couple
of least. Moisture and rain chances rise again midweek.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 64 77 64 79 / 50 50 60 50
Hobart OK 62 77 64 79 / 50 50 60 50
Wichita Falls Texas 64 79 66 79 / 60 50 50 50
gage OK 62 80 59 80 / 20 40 60 50
Ponca City OK 66 79 63 80 / 40 40 70 50
Durant OK 65 79 67 80 / 40 40 40 40


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...



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