Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1148 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.
have low confidence in the tafs for the next 24 hours.
Not sure that ongoing MVFR conditions will worsen to IFR before 15z.
Locations in western Oklahoma have the highest chance to become IFR
before 15z. Think some IFR conditions will occur 15-21z over the area
except kpnc. VFR conditions may develop in western Oklahoma and
western North Texas after 17z...but only mentioned these conditions
at kgag and kwwr. IFR conditions may redevelop after 22z across the
Previous discussion... /issued 914 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014/
clouds expected to remain over the area overnight into Saturday.
Winds are light but have shifted to a generally southerly
direction many places so dewpoints not expected to lower much from
current levels. With the cloud cover and moist airmass... temperatures
not expected to fall a lot so raised low temperatures a few degrees in
many areas. With the moist airmass and light winds... patchy fog
development is possible again overnight into Saturday morning.
Adjusted sky cover and hourly grids to show current trends.
Updates out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 226 PM CST Friday Dec 19 2014/
expansive stratus deck remains blanketed across the Southern Plains
into the Ozarks. Have seen some improvement on the far western edge
across western Kansas and the panhandles on visible Sat... but expect the low
clouds and light to moderate fog to linger across much of the region
through the overnight hours into Sat morning. Even with the weak
h500 trough finally exiting across MO/hr... expect patchy fog
once again tomorrow morning as light winds and decent moisture
remains parked over the region.
Saturday... should see some improvement in cloud cover and fog
through noon. Patchy fog and drizzle chances will return
overnight/early sun... as another weak front/h500 short wave moves
into the region. Drizzle chances will be best ahead of the trough...
within a region of weak 290k isentropic response... from southwestern to
north central OK. Drizzle chances will continue through Sunday
across central and northern OK... with rain chances across north central OK
increasing Sun night/early Monday as the initial surface front finally
pushes across OK/KS.
For Monday... ahead of a stronger cold front pushing south across
the plains... S/SW flow will increase... allowing highs to push near
60 as far north as okc... with middle 60s across texoma. Moisture
return will be limited ahead of the fronts arrival... but there will
remain a slight chance for isolated showers across southern OK/western North Texas
overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be markedly cooler... with
highs in the middle 40s Tuesday. Temperatures will only rebound gradually Wednesday...
with highs in the low/middle 50s.
For Christmas... expect mild and dry conditions... the GFS remains
the warmer... albeit only slightly... of the long range guidance as
SW winds increase ahead of another strong cold front. Either way...
looks to be a pleasant day... with southerly winds and highs ranging
from the middle 50s in northern OK to the middle 60s in western North Texas. Into the
evening... the European model (ecmwf) remains faster with the frontal timing... but
only slightly. It remains a relatively dry passage at first... with
some slight chances of rain/scattered showers on Friday... and a return of