Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
359 am CST Sat Nov 22 2014

22/12z tafs...IFR conditions remain widespread this morning and
will likely persist through much of the forecast period. The lowest or below minimums...will prevail through the early morning
hours near and north of weak surface boundary from SW OK into north central
OK. Ceilings/visibilities should improve some at these sites by midday. Farther
south...shra/tsra will be more widespread mainly affecting taf sites
from ksps/klaw northeastward to kokc and possibly kpnc through at least early
afternoon before shifting into eastern OK. IFR conditions expected to
persist overnight with moist airmass remaining in place. Improving
conditions likely at western sites late in the period as low level flow
begins to veer and advect in drier air.


Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

strong upper system moving through northern Mexico this morning will
continue eastward into Texas today. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the southern half of the forecast area this
morning in broad warm air advection pattern ahead of this system. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through the
morning and then shift gradually eastward during the afternoon as
upper system cointinues eastward into Texas. The heaviest rainfall
is expected from parts of North Texas into south central and southeast OK
where amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible. Best rain chances
tonight will be in the southeast as the upper low lifts
northeastward through East Texas.

A fast moving short wave trough will move from the central rockies into
the plains on Sunday with a few showers possible...mainly north.
Associated cold front will move through the region during the day
Sunday with Pacific origin airmass bringing only slight cooling.

Northwesterly upper flow will continue through the remainder of
the period with a couple of dry fronts moving through.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 52 59 37 / 60 20 20 10
Hobart OK 66 47 60 35 / 50 20 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 67 49 64 39 / 90 30 0 0
gage OK 67 40 55 29 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 64 52 58 34 / 50 30 40 20
Durant OK 64 53 66 40 / 90 80 10 10


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...dense fog advisory until 8 am CST this morning for okz004>012-




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations