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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015



scattered thunderstorms will move slowly south of central Oklahoma
into southern Oklahoma this evening. VFR conditions are expected
outside of thunderstorms. Gusty south winds will arrive Sunday
afternoon to the western half of Oklahoma and thunderstorms will
be isolated at most Sunday afternoon.


Previous discussion... /issued 238 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/

a few isolated storms have developed early this afternoon from northwest to
southeast parts of the forecast area. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms will
remain possible into this evening with a few strong to marginally
severe storms possible. Isolated storms will remain possible
overnight into Sunday morning but the area where this most likely
will happen is expected to gradually shift NE across the forecast area. The
potential for any severe storms will decrease after sunset.

Most of the area will remain dry Sunday... except for maybe an
outside chance of an isolated storm due to surface heating and the moist
airmass over the area. Rain chances will return Monday and continue
through at least the middle of next week. The greatest chance and
most likely time for widespread rain will be Monday afternoon into
Tuesday as a cold front gradually moves across parts of the forecast area.
Heavy rain will be likely in some areas which could lead to flash
flooding in some locations. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed in
parts of the forecast area but models disagree right now where the axis of
heaviest rain will fall. However... the models do agree that some
areas could receive up to or over 4 inches of rain. Models
eventually show the front stalling out over parts of the forecast area so rain
chances will continue into Wednesday with the boundary lingering in
the area.

Models then show a shortwave moving across the Central Plains which
will cause rain chances to continue into Thursday but shift towards
northern parts of the forecast area. Models then begin to diverge as to the
strength of the upper high that builds into parts of the Southern
Plains with European model (ecmwf) stronger than the GFS. If GFS is right... rain
chances may not completely end late next week into the weekend at
least across northern OK.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 72 91 73 90 / 20 10 10 20
Hobart OK 73 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 30
Wichita Falls Texas 74 94 75 94 / 10 10 10 10
gage OK 71 94 74 90 / 20 10 10 80
Ponca City OK 73 94 75 91 / 30 40 10 50
Durant OK 73 90 74 91 / 20 20 10 10


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...



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