Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
545 am CST Monday Dec 9 2013
09/12z tafs...primarily MVFR/VFR conditions expected across
terminals. IFR conditions will be possible...primarily at kpnc
this afternoon with higher probability for moderate snow bands to
set up. Will mention -sn in terminals near and north of
Interstate-40. MVFR ceilings seen early this morning expected to give
way to broken-overcast VFR ceilings by 18z then clearing toward and after
Previous discussion... /issued 440 am CST Monday Dec 9 2013/
lift and moistening of middle-levels evident on satellite early this
morning...with some light echoes beginning to show up on radar
across northwest Oklahoma. None of the precipitation is reaching the
ground yet...but moistening will take place through the morning.
Although there will likely be a large area of a dusting to just
under an inch of snow today...mainly north of Interstate-40...
probabilities for accumulations of more than an inch will be
highest across north-central Oklahoma and points east. Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for far north-central Oklahoma
to handle potential impacts of up to three inches of snow. Moderate
snow expected this afternoon with western edge of frontogenetic
bands in the advisory area extending into SW Missouri. Snow will
taper off this evening.
For most locations temperatures will stay below average through
the week as repeated cold fronts pass over region. Most of the
warming ahead of the fronts will be seen over far western Oklahoma
and areas near and south of the Red River. After today...the next
chance for precipitation will come Thursday night through Friday
as slow moving upper low approaches. Fairly robust warm air advection pattern
sets up...initially atop cold boundary layer. This will prompt
keeping mention of light freezing rain in the forecast for
Thursday night and early Friday before precipitation looks to change over
to rain during the day Friday. At this time...no significant ice
impacts are expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 26 14 36 20 / 20 10 0 0
Hobart OK 25 13 35 19 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 30 16 37 22 / 10 10 0 0
gage OK 23 9 40 15 / 40 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 23 11 34 16 / 70 60 0 0
Durant OK 34 18 37 23 / 10 10 0 0
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 am this morning to midnight CST
tonight for okz007-008-012-013.