Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Norman OK
644 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

20/12z tafs...primarily VFR ceilings expected through the morning
before clearing expected. Redevelopment expected near and north of
stalled front across central and northern Oklahoma toward and
after 01-03z. MVFR visibility restrictions possible for the first
few hours of forecast and will be included most sites. Dense fog
expected to stay north of Oklahoma terminals.


Previous discussion... /issued 433 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/

forecast area between scattered warm air advection showers over eastern Oklahoma
this morning...and possible showers east of weakening upper low
over nm and West Texas late today. Will continue low probability of precipitation across
areas near and east of Interstate-35 through sunrise...but appears
that additional development and progression of showers should stay
east of County Warning Area. Weak front forecasted to stall near Interstate-40 this
afternoon with little effect expected other than a wind
shift...with light winds expected on both sides of front. Front
lifts back north tonight and Tuesday with a couple of models
developing showers/weak storms near and north of retreating
front. Probability of precipitation will not be added this package with mean ridge

Longwave trough still forecasted to move over central portion of the
country mid-week...yielding potential for scattered showers and a
few storms across the region. Rainfall amounts will remain light.
Model trends have been to keep more energy and colder temperatures
aloft farther north and decreasing quantitative precipitation forecast over Oklahoma and North
Texas. Probability of precipitation were lowered south of Interstate-40 and also with
trend of a faster progression of trough...probability of precipitation were decreased or
removed altogether Thursday evening and Thursday night. Warming
trend and dry weather expected Friday through the upcoming


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 81 57 80 57 / 10 0 10 10
Hobart OK 82 58 81 57 / 10 10 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 83 58 82 57 / 10 0 10 10
gage OK 79 53 79 53 / 10 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 78 54 78 54 / 10 0 10 10
Durant OK 80 58 82 57 / 10 0 10 10


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations