Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2015
aviation discussion for the 18z tafs is below.
overall...VFR conditions are expected to continue.
There is an outside chance for MVFR ceilings near kpnc through
22z...but did not mention due to very low confidence.
MVFR conditions with br may occur in a few locations mainly east
of kavk-klaw 07-14z. Kpnc has the highest chance of occurrence
where brief IFR conditions with br may occur. However...did not
mention as confidence of occurrence remains low.
Previous discussion... /issued 1113 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
no major changes planned.
A weak cold front will move into southern Oklahoma and western
North Texas by late this afternoon. A few showers and storms may
develop near the front during peak heating. Otherwise...high
clouds across the southern half of the forecast area will continue
to thin while some low clouds move into north central Oklahoma.
Previous discussion... /issued 638 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
29/12z taf discussion below.
MVFR fog will be seen mainly around kpnc early this
morning...otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms and rain expected to stay south and east of terminals.
Middle-high level cloud cover should decrease through the day. As
weak frontal boundary shifts over the terminals this morning and
afternoon...light northerly winds should prevail.
Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
very weak frontal boundary making slow progress across the region
early this morning...extending from near Elk City to Ponca City at
this typing. Front is expected to stall over far south-central and
eastern Oklahoma late today then mix back north of region Sunday
and Sunday night. Any chance for isolated showers and/or storms
should be near and ahead of boundary through this afternoon.
Beginning this evening...forecast will remain pop free with
increasing heights across Oklahoma and North Texas. Ecm has come
more in line with the GFS...keeping upper trough just to our east
through next week. If there is some retrograding we could see
diurnally driven showers or a few storms east of I-35 middle to late
week. With confidence on the low side...we will stay with the
blended initializations and keep forecast dry. Temperatures are
expected to remain near average.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 67 91 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 66 95 68 98 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 70 98 72 99 / 10 10 0 0
gage OK 62 93 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 65 89 68 92 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 71 95 71 96 / 10 10 0 0