Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014
21/06z tafs...weak cold front over southern Kansas will continue to move
south overnight. Generally VFR to MVFR conditions expected most areas
with widely scattered showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front
as it moves through northern OK. Will limit thunderstorms in the vicinity to northern OK sites as confidence
in activity continuing farther south remains low. With light winds
and moist boundary layer some fog will be possible mainly southern OK/North Texas
ahead of the front.
Previous discussion... /issued 910 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
precipitation for SW parts of the forecast area are probably mostly done for the
night. However... another shower or two is not out of the question
so have kept some low probability of precipitation in far southwest. Showers/storms moving
across southern/central Kansas could move into northern parts of
the County Warning Area tonight and continue to move south. Have spread low probability of precipitation a
little more south for tonight as it seems that the current
activity is a little faster than models are predicting. Some light
patchy for is also not out of the question early Sunday morning.
Put a mention in weather grids for mainly southeast/south central OK
and parts of western North Texas where best chance for fog
development is. Fog development possible in other areas but could
get interrupted by veering winds ahead of front... clouds... or
rain. Updates out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 615 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
VFR conditions will prevail through the early evening hours.
Cold front moving through Kansas early this evening will move into northern
OK later tonight. Could be a few showers/thunderstorms along the front as it
moves into northern OK and will include in those tafs. Will limit thunderstorms and rain to
northern sites due to more uncertainty of storms making it farther south
before diminishing. Boundary layer remains moist and winds fairly
light ahead of the front so more fog and low clouds possible
central/south toward sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/
well we continue to watch the remnants of tropical system produce
precipitation to our west and southwest this afternoon. Enough moisture around
however with daytime heating to see a few widely scattered
showers. Much of this activity expected to dissipate with the loss
of daytime heating. Will keep some low probability of precipitation across southwest
tonight closer to remnant low and across the north as surface cold
front drops south into the area.
This front will make its way south across the area late tonight
and Sunday with a minimal chance of a shower or thunderstorm along
the boundary. Best chance appears to be Sunday afternoon near the Red
River. Otherwise...drier air will filter south in the fronts wake
allowing for some cooler night and less muggy days. At least for a
couple of days.
Attention then turns to another upper trough that will move out of
the central/southern rockies early next week and then stall over
the plains for several days. Some differences in its evolution...
but should provide at least some opportunity for precipitation across
mainly portions of western and northwestern Oklahoma.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 68 88 59 81 / 20 20 10 10
Hobart OK 68 89 61 82 / 10 20 20 10
Wichita Falls Texas 69 91 64 85 / 10 30 20 10
gage OK 64 84 57 81 / 20 20 10 20
Ponca City OK 66 84 55 79 / 30 20 10 0
Durant OK 70 91 64 82 / 10 30 20 10