Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
547 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014
08/00z tafs...strong cold front will continue over region making
it to klaw/kokc/kpnc toward 06z and ksps 09z. MVFR stratus will
move in 2 to 4 hours after frontal passage most locations. Greatest chance
for precipitation will be northern and central parts of Oklahoma and will
leave mention of precipitation out of SW OK and ksps terminals. IFR
conditions will be likely for several hours in areas of more
persistent precipitation toward and after 12z northern and central
Oklahoma. Improving conditions from west to east after 15z and
strong northerly winds will persist through the day tomorrow.
Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CST Friday Mar 7 2014/
cirrostratus associated with a middle to upper shortwave trough kept
temperatures down a bit across the central and eastern zones through this
afternoon...while locations across SW OK and western North Texas have
climbed all the way up into the 80s (hollis currently 82). The
cold front is now making its way into northwest OK and will continue to
progress southward into central OK during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile...to the northwest...a fairly potent vorticity maximum can be seen in
water vapor imagery traversing southern Colorado. This feature will
slide east overnight across the OK/Kansas border. As the cold air
deepens across the region...sleet and snow will accompany this
feature. A winter weather advection has been issued for our northern tier of
counties as a result where 1-2 inches of both snow and sleet
will be possible. NAM and GFS forecast soundings suggest sleet as
early as midnight near wwr/gag...with a transition to snow closer
to 4 am. The snow and sleet will likely remain across northwest OK
through about sunrise tomorrow...and then shift east-southeast across central
OK during the day. Rain will be the main precipitation type elsewhere.
High temperatures will be a bit tricky depending on the exact locations
of the heaviest precipitation...but will struggle to make it above the
middle 30s along and north of i40 across central and eastern OK.
By sun 00z most of the precipitation will shift eastward as a dry slot
impacts the region. Lows will fall below freezing for a majority
of the area Sunday morning as a ~1028 mb surface high moves over SW
OK. Slightly below average temperatures are then expected Sun afternoon under
clear skies as a Lee trough develops. Very warm temperatures are then
anticipated for Tuesday thanks to compressional warming ahead of
the next cold front. Right now...a very tight pressure gradient
and Post frontal 850 mb jet maximum appear they could support some
brief advisory level winds during the overnight hours Tuesday.
After a brief cool down Wednesday...a warming trend will transpire
through late next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 36 37 28 57 / 60 70 10 10
Hobart OK 36 41 27 60 / 30 30 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 41 42 30 60 / 20 30 10 10
gage OK 31 39 24 64 / 70 50 10 0
Ponca City OK 33 35 24 56 / 60 90 10 0
Durant OK 47 52 32 57 / 10 50 30 10
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Saturday for okz004>007-009-010.