Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1133 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
aviation discussion for the 18z tafs is below.
Through 00z...MVFR conditions will continue east of kend-klaw-
ksps...while VFR conditions will continue west of this line.
After 00z...worsening conditions are expected at all sites.
Believe most sites will be MVFR/IFR by 07z...though the timing of
worsening conditions remains uncertain. Kcsm...khbr...kwwr...and
kgag may approach LIFR conditions and Airport minimums after 09z.
Patches of -dz and br may occur east of kend-ksps before 06z...
then nearly anywhere after 06z...but did not mention due to low
confidence of occurrence.
Isolated-num rain showers will form over western Oklahoma after 12z. Only
included -shra near kwwr...kgag...kcsm...and khbr where confidence
of occurrence is moderate. Ts may occur as well...but was not
mentioned to due very low chances of occurrence at a given site.
Previous discussion... /issued 1037 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
dropped probability of precipitation to 10 percent for today.
moisture should gradually increase through the day...keeping a
chance for drizzle across southeast portions of the County Warning Area.
However...given recent radar trends...not expecting much more than
Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
sunshine will be in very short supply over the next several days
in Oklahoma and North Texas. A developing storm system to our west
will draw low-level moisture into the region from the Gulf of
Mexico...and moisture aloft from the tropical regions of the
After a breezy and mild day today...a strong cold front will enter
far northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon...bringing a sudden drop
in temperatures...and an even less subtle drop in wind chill
readings...as the much cooler air will be accompanied by brisk
Heavy rain is expected to develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of the
front...which will continue into the night...and Friday...mainly
near and southeast of the front. By Saturday...the heaviest rain
should be confined to the southeast quadrant of Oklahoma...and
should be less intense. By the time the rain subsides later this
weekend...some areas may see flooding. Because of the high amounts
of rainfall that are expected...we have included a Flash Flood
Watch in this forecast. The watch covers most of our counties that
are not already in a Winter Storm Watch.
Our Winter Storm Watch remains unchanged from the earlier
issuance. It still appears that freezing rain is likely to cause
ice accumulation in that area...beginning Thursday evening...and
continuing Friday and Friday night/Saturday morning. It appears
fairly likely at this point that some parts of the watch will have
to be upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning once there is sufficient
confidence to do so. Besides the freezing rain...it is likely that
some sleet will fall in northwest Oklahoma on Friday...and
possibly snow. Accumulations are difficult to pin down at this
point...especially since it is not yet clear which types of
precipitation will be dominant in that part of Oklahoma.
Precipitation chances drop quickly on Sunday...and temperatures
will rise back closer to the seasonal averages for Monday and
Tuesday...but then a reinforcement of the cool weather will arrive
Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 58 66 34 / 10 30 90 100
Hobart OK 66 59 63 32 / 10 30 80 90
Wichita Falls Texas 71 59 70 38 / 10 20 70 90
gage OK 69 53 58 27 / 0 30 80 70
Ponca City OK 65 57 63 33 / 10 50 90 90
Durant OK 65 60 66 46 / 10 10 60 90
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for okz004>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon