Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Aviation... generally MVFR ceilings at midday with moist boundary layer
airmass in place over the region. Expect ceilings to lift to mainly VFR
during the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist during the afternoon and evening...but with little to focus
activity will go with thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs. Generally VFR conditions expected
through the evening with MVFR ceilings redeveloping toward sunrise.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 1037 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Update...
scattered showers continue to develop across parts of the forecast area this
morning. Thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon...
with the best chance over the southern half of the forecast area. A few of
these storms may become strong with small hail/gusty winds. Have
adjusted probability of precipitation/weather grids to account for the better chances.
Otherwise... rest of forecast looks pretty good just made some
minor adjustments to account for current trends. Will send updates
shortly.
Maxwell
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Discussion...
several weak disturbances will continue to move through broad
upper ridge in place across the central U.S. Which will keep some
low end chances for precipitation across Oklahoma and western North
Texas. One disturbance moving through northern Texas today will
keep slightly better rain chances across far southern Oklahoma.
Another wave will move through the Central Plains on Sunday with
slightly higher probability for rain across northern Oklahoma.
Upper ridge begins to shift east by early in the week as larger western
trough begins to approach. Models still disagree as to how this
will evolve... with the latest GFS lifting the trough to our north
as it moves into the plains with better rain chances remaining to
our north. However... the European model (ecmwf) continue to amplify the trough much
more than the GFS and is much farther south. This would keep
better precipitation chances in the forecast for Oklahoma and western
North Texas for the middle of the week. Will not go too high with
rain chances as there remains some uncertainties... but will continue
to lean toward the European model (ecmwf) solution.
Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring a front toward the area by next weekend
with yet another opportunity for rain. Otherwise... windy...
warm/hot and muggy conditions continue through the week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 84 65 85 67 / 30 30 10 10
Hobart OK 86 65 90 68 / 30 20 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 86 67 91 68 / 30 30 10 10
gage OK 86 64 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
Ponca City OK 82 65 87 68 / 20 20 20 20
Durant OK 82 66 86 66 / 30 30 20 10
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
25/02
