Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
531 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
VFR conditions are expected to continue.
Light northwest winds will switch to the south or southwest
at all sites 12-17z.
Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CST Monday Jan 26 2015/
very warm temperatures are present this afternoon under the influence of
westerly surface flow and an upper level ridge extending all the way
into the central rockies. This ridge will shift eastward tomorrow
over the plains...and the warm trend will continue as a result.
Highs may climb close to 80 across west OK Tuesday afternoon...and then
western North Texas Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front as
prefrontal downslope flow develops. Low relative humidity and wind speeds around
15 miles per hour Wednesday...combined with the above average temperatures...will result in an
elevated fire weather concern although red flag conditions are not
anticipated at this time thanks to increasing low level moisture.
Temperatures will finally cool down behind the aforementioned front by
Thursday afternoon to near or a few degrees above normal for most
locations. By late this week through this weekend...models remain
fairly consistent with regards to an upper trough traversing the
Gulf of cali and SW. A couple of shortwave troughs will likely
impact the region Friday through early Sunday...increasing rain
and snow chances over the region. For now...the highest chances
will be on Saturday when widespread deep moisture and lift are
present. Probability of precipitation have been increased and spread northward a bit. Its
still unclear how much snow will accumulate based on surface
temperatures/wetbulbs through Sunday am...but the best chance for
accumulation appears to be along and north of i40 for the moment.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 42 73 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 39 77 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 41 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 36 78 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 37 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 44 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 0