Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
515 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014
skies continue to clear this evening with light northwest winds. Skies
expected to remain clear through forecast period... with surface
winds shifting to the south by late in the forecast at 8 to 12kts
Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2014/
precipitation east of I-35 through early this evening is the
first concern...then potentially additional wintry weather is the
next concern sometime Wednesday night through Saturday.
Will let the Winter Weather Advisory expire as accumulating wintry
precipitation is expected to end by 3 PM today. Will keep low
precipitation chances east of a Waurika to Shawnee line for the
rest of this afternoon...and near Atoka and Durant through 9 PM
this evening. Any additional precipitation will be very light and
mainly in the form of light sleet...light snow...and light rain.
Tonight...temperatures may be tricky depending on the amount of
cloud cover. With the middle/upper trough west of our area allowing
for southwest flow aloft...went on slightly higher side of
guidance lows thinking middle/high cloud cover may increase...ranging
from the teens in northern Oklahoma to the 20s south of I-40.
Winds will be light...so if clearing can occur...current forecast
lows may be too warm...especially over snowpack.
Any moisture from melting snow this afternoon will refreeze
tonight...so a few slick spots could occur on roads tonight into
Sunday...mostly sunny and warmer conditions are forecast. Model
guidance highs mainly in the 40s seemed reasonable. Think much of
the snowpack will melt.
Monday through Wednesday...shallow Arctic air will slowly move
into the area during this time frame...allowing for cold and
mainly dry conditions. Kept low chances for light snow over
western Oklahoma and western North Texas Tuesday and Tuesday
night...though any precipitation will be light...and not sure this
will occur as the low levels may be too dry to allow snow to
reach the ground.
Wednesday night through Saturday...will monitor for the potential
of wintry precipitation. Shallow Arctic air is typically difficult
to modify this time of year. The approach of a middle/upper
low/trough will allow for low/middle level isentropic lift...
beginning Wednesday night into Thursday. For now...kept
precipitation types as rain or snow...but sleet and freezing
rain may be possible. Will closely monitor this system over the
coming days as details become clearer.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 22 43 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 18 43 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 24 47 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 13 43 17 38 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 16 42 24 43 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 29 46 27 53 / 20 0 0 0
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for