Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
358 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
main forecast concern remains focused on convection this morning and
its impacts for today.
Currently... convection remains focused along a baroclinic zone
positioned along the OK/Kansas border. Additional scattered
convection... across southwestern Kansas... has continued to increase along the
nose of the weak low level jet over the past few hours. The lone storm that
moved across Kiowa County... on what appears to be the original
boundary... has continued to weaken... with focus placed on the
broken line just north of the OK/Kansas border.
Through sunrise... expect this activity to continue to drift S/southeast
into north central OK as the boundary begins to meander southward.
Mesoscale guidance from the h-trip and nmm remain fairly
consistent... with what appears to be OK initialization... with
current solutions supporting this scenario. Through 330 am CDT...
the line was continuing to fill in... with up wind prop vectors
balanced well with 0-3km shear... would not be surprised to see it
start to propagate southward toward the border into far northern OK through 4-
5 am CDT.
How the current convection evolves over the next several hours will
have a major impact on thunderstorm chances the remainder of the
day. At the moment... expect storms to slowly drift S/southeast into
central OK this morning before lifting back north through noon as
the broad surface low over the txph begins to lift N/NE... forcing the
surface front back into northestern OK/southeastern Kansas. When dealing with east-west
boundaries... convective evolution depends greatly on the impacts of
initial convection and the slow evolving synoptic pattern.
For the remainder of the week... Wednesday-Thursday should be dry... with temperatures
remaining near normal as high pressure stalls over the Southern Plains.
Rain chances then return late Thursday/early Friday as the ridge begins to
break down... and a weak h500 trough slowly develops over the
Midwest. With a messy synoptic pattern persisting through the
weekend... there will be near daily chances for precipitation
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 94 75 95 75 / 40 10 0 0
Hobart OK 98 75 97 75 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 99 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
gage OK 94 73 97 74 / 20 10 0 0
Ponca City OK 90 75 95 77 / 70 30 10 0
Durant OK 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0