Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
646 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015
30/12z taf issuance.
LIFR conditions in fog/stratus are expected across northern
Oklahoma terminals through 15z. Will also mention MVFR fog over
central Oklahoma terminals of kokc/koun first few hours of
forecast. Otherwise VFR forecast with light northerly winds
becoming light southerly late in the afternoon and tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 406 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015/
main adjustment to going forecast package was to add fog for this
morning across areas north of I-40. The most widespread and
possibly dense fog will be over far north/northwest Oklahoma
nearest low level ridge axis. Confident that there will be fog but
just not sure how widespread any dense fog will be. The most
aggressive models...WRF and hrrr keep a majority of dense fog up
in Kansas through 9 am. Dense fog advisory not anticipated at this
point but we will watch trends and issue as needed. Probability of precipitation were also
continued through today across southeast County Warning Area near middle-level shear
axis and effective synoptic boundary.
Todays temperatures were cooled a bit from previous forecast as well.
Initializations came in a few degrees cooler mainly over northern
and western Oklahoma...and with plume of high level smoke this
sounds reasonable. GFS and ecm have trended weaker with the upper
level ridge and have generally underforecast strength/persistence
of longwave trough axis just to our east. This will yield slightly
cooler temperatures through the week most areas and although probability of precipitation are too
low to mention...cannot rule out an isolated shower or weak storm
especially far northwest Oklahoma closer to possible High Plains
remnants and far southeast Oklahoma closer to upper trough.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 89 68 93 70 / 10 0 0 0
Hobart OK 92 67 97 71 / 10 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 96 71 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
gage OK 91 63 96 69 / 10 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 88 67 93 70 / 10 0 0 0
Durant OK 94 71 95 71 / 20 10 10 0