Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015
tafs...2906/3006z...thunderstorms have mainly been confined
to the Texas Panhandle this evening. Additional storms will form
in parts of Kansas overnight...which will help push a cold front
southward into northern Oklahoma. VFR conditions are expected
through 6z Thursday...with MVFR conditions possible at wwr/gag.
Previous discussion... /issued 927 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
adjusted dewpoints slightly through 12z. See discussion below.
very little changes were made to the forecast. Storms will remain
possible along the stalled cold front across northwest OK through about
midnight but with no other support present near our region...only
isolated to widely scattered coverage is expected. Adjusted
dewpoints up a bit across the eastern zones based on current
trends. No other significant changes were needed.
Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
tafs 2900/3000z...with the exception of gag/wwr...VFR
conditions will prevail through 00z Thursday. In far
northwest Oklahoma...an isolated storm or two may form
along a cold front this evening...with better chances north and
west of the area. By Wednesday afternoon...widely scattered storms
may develop near the frontal boundary mainly impacting gag/wwr.
Previous discussion... /issued 259 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/
a cold front located across southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma
Panhandle will approach northwest Oklahoma this evening. Convective
allowing models indicate that isolated thunderstorms will be
possible. Effective bulk shear is forecast to only be 15-20
knots...so expect any storm organization to be limited. Steep low-
level lapse rates and downdraft cape over 1800 j/kg indicate that
gusty winds will be the primary threat with any storms that do
After collaboration with surrounding offices...opted to issue a
heat advisory for southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday. Expect heat
index values to be close to or near 105f.
The front will continue to slowly drift southward into Oklahoma
and will be a focus for isolated thunderstorms over the next few
days. Expect the middle-level ridge also to retrograde to the west.
The combination of additional cloud cover and northerly flow
aloft will cool temperatures down slightly over the next few days.
By early next week...expect temperatures to warm back up into
the middle to upper 90s with a decreased chance of rain. Another
cold front may approach the area by mid-week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 73 96 73 93 / 0 10 20 30
Hobart OK 74 98 73 96 / 10 10 10 20
Wichita Falls Texas 76 98 75 98 / 0 0 10 20
gage OK 71 91 69 88 / 20 30 50 40
Ponca City OK 75 94 71 89 / 10 20 30 30
Durant OK 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 10 20
OK...heat advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for okz026-030>032-