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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015

0z aviation discussion below


low ceilings will return tonight with IFR/LIFR ceilings possible
Thursday. Light rain/drizzle will be possible overnight with rain
becoming widespread Thursday. Some storms will also be possible
Thursday but chances too low for mention in taf. A cold front will
also begin to move into parts of the area on Thursday.


Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/

a lot of things coming up weatherwise... but the forecast
philosophy has not changed dramatically. Precipitation chances
increase overnight with widespread precipitation Thanksgiving through at
least Saturday. Heavy rainfall will be possible in the central and
southeast. Quantitative precipitation forecast in grids is primarily based on wpc quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts and 5
inch storm-total amounts will definitely be possible. Flash Flood
Watch area still looks reasonable and no changes to the geography
will be made with this update.

The other main issue will be the winter precipitation in the
northwest as cold air moves in... although the models are in
pretty good agreement with the locations of the low-level freezing
line. With the warm layer forecast aloft...winter precipitation type
will be freezing rain or sleet depending on the depth of the cold
layer. As the last shifts have noted... the chances of sleet are
higher than it looked yesterday morning...and this may help in
preventing as significant ice accumulation as we might see with
pure freezing rain. Primary area of concern for largest
accumulation of winter precipitation will be west central or southwest
Oklahoma toward north central Oklahoma where there may be the
biggest overlap of higher precipitation amounts on the north edge of the
primary precipitation area and the sub-freezing low-level
temperatures. But will also have to watch northwest Oklahoma where
the NAM was developing a second axis of heavy precipitation from
the central Texas Panhandle toward northwest Oklahoma. Will watch
trends in this area. The Winter Storm Watch still highlights the
most significant area of winter weather potential and will
maintain the geography of this area as well. Will continue to
watch trends and transition to an advisory or warning as needed.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 58 66 35 35 / 30 90 100 80
Hobart OK 60 64 33 33 / 40 90 90 70
Wichita Falls Texas 60 69 39 39 / 30 80 90 80
gage OK 53 56 26 30 / 50 90 70 70
Ponca City OK 58 64 33 36 / 40 90 90 70
Durant OK 60 67 51 51 / 10 60 90 90


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for okz004>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.

Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
for okz025>032-037>048-050>052.

Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
for txz085-086-088>090.




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