Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1112 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
06z aviation discussion below
ceilings will lower tonight into Thursday with LIFR/IFR ceilings
expected. Light rain will be possible in some places early
Thursday but become widespread as the day progress with heavy rain
possible reducing visibilities. Some thunder will be possible but
chances to low for mention in tafs right now. A cold front will
move across the area overnight into Thursday shifting winds.
Precipitation may change to freezing rain/sleet in northwest OK towards
the end of the taf period but current forecast has that changing
over after 6z Friday so don't have in taf for now.
Previous discussion... /issued 1003 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
00z models coming in colder and faster with front.
adjusted temps, dews, and winds for faster frontal movement
tonight and Thursday. Colder solutions may lead to expansion
slightly of watch/warning/advisories to the south and east.
Previous shift increased wording of sleet which would be supported
across northwest parts of Oklahoma...resulting in less freezing
rain. This will be assessed next several hours for overnight
Previous discussion... /issued 535 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
0z aviation discussion below
low ceilings will return tonight with IFR/LIFR ceilings possible
Thursday. Light rain/drizzle will be possible overnight with rain
becoming widespread Thursday. Some storms will also be possible
Thursday but chances too low for mention in taf. A cold front will
also begin to move into parts of the area on Thursday.
Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CST Wednesday Nov 25 2015/
a lot of things coming up weatherwise... but the forecast
philosophy has not changed dramatically. Precipitation chances
increase overnight with widespread precipitation Thanksgiving through at
least Saturday. Heavy rainfall will be possible in the central and
southeast. Quantitative precipitation forecast in grids is primarily based on wpc quantitative precipitation forecast forecasts and 5
inch storm-total amounts will definitely be possible. Flash Flood
Watch area still looks reasonable and no changes to the geography
will be made with this update.
The other main issue will be the winter precipitation in the
northwest as cold air moves in... although the models are in
pretty good agreement with the locations of the low-level freezing
line. With the warm layer forecast aloft...winter precipitation type
will be freezing rain or sleet depending on the depth of the cold
layer. As the last shifts have noted... the chances of sleet are
higher than it looked yesterday morning...and this may help in
preventing as significant ice accumulation as we might see with
pure freezing rain. Primary area of concern for largest
accumulation of winter precipitation will be west central or southwest
Oklahoma toward north central Oklahoma where there may be the
biggest overlap of higher precipitation amounts on the north edge of the
primary precipitation area and the sub-freezing low-level
temperatures. But will also have to watch northwest Oklahoma where
the NAM was developing a second axis of heavy precipitation from
the central Texas Panhandle toward northwest Oklahoma. Will watch
trends in this area. The Winter Storm Watch still highlights the
most significant area of winter weather potential and will
maintain the geography of this area as well. Will continue to
watch trends and transition to an advisory or warning as needed.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 62 63 35 35 / 30 90 100 80
Hobart OK 62 63 33 33 / 40 90 90 70
Wichita Falls Texas 65 67 38 39 / 30 80 90 80
gage OK 45 47 28 30 / 50 90 70 70
Ponca City OK 61 62 34 36 / 40 90 90 70
Durant OK 61 66 41 51 / 10 60 90 90
OK...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning for okz004>012-014>018-021>024-033>036.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
Texas...Flash Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon