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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
159 PM CDT sun Oct 4 2015

a large upper low over Southern California this afternoon will
become our eventual weather-maker later this week. Ahead of the
low some middle and high clouds will at times affect the Southern
Plains. A strong warm-up starts Monday and lasts into Wednesday
when short-wave ridging is induced by the slowly-approaching upper
low. Rain chances will begin to increase later Wednesday in
western Oklahoma with the initial waves associate with the low.
Models are fairly consistent into Thursday with the upper low
moving into southern New Mexico and giving parts of western and
southern OK and adjacent areas of Texas a good chance for
rain/thunderstorms Thursday/Thursday night. Beginning Friday,
models continue to differ in the movement of the upper system. The
European model (ecmwf) takes it back to the southwest and has its influence give
way to a building upper ridge late in the weekend. The GFS
continues to slowly drift it across Oklahoma as an open wave
Saturday with a chance for showers/thunderstorms. Given that both
models bring a surface front into northern Texas late Friday and
for forecast consistency 6 days out, low probability of precipitation are retained for
Saturday. Temperatures the second half of the week are expected to
be near normals under the cloud cover.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 53 75 58 81 / 10 10 10 0
Hobart OK 54 75 56 83 / 10 10 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 57 78 59 84 / 10 10 10 0
gage OK 51 74 52 80 / 10 10 10 0
Ponca City OK 50 75 55 80 / 10 10 10 0
Durant OK 56 80 60 84 / 10 10 10 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...



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