Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016
06z taf discussion below.
VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Some middle and high
clouds will affect parts of OK overnight. Winds will be shifting
throughout the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 919 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday across a large part of
the area. Lowered surface dewpoints and increased surface winds
wildfire danger will be very high on Wednesday.
Issued the watch thinking that most model guidance is too shallow
with vertical mixing...too cool with surface temperatures...and
too moist near the ground on Wednesday. Though surface winds and
humidity may be marginal...generally around 20 miles per hour...and relative humidity 15-25
percent...think high fuel loading from last year/S record rainfall
and fairly high fire activity over the past two days will allow
for very high wildfire danger on Wednesday.
Latest nam12/gfs20 favored the strongest surface winds across
central Oklahoma including Oklahoma City...Stillwater...and
Shawnee at 3 PM on Wednesday. Would not be surprised if currently
forecast highs on Wednesday are too cool even though they are the
warm side of model guidance. Several locations in southwestern
Oklahoma and western North Texas could exceed 80 degrees Wednesday
Products have been updated.
Previous discussion... /issued 505 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
0z taf discussion below.
VFR conditions expected throughout the taf period. Winds will
shift direction through Wednesday. Some middle and high level clouds
will affect parts of the area.
Previous discussion... /issued 254 PM CST Tuesday Feb 9 2016/
dry and warm conditions into the weekend...
This afternoon and evening... north winds will persist... with gusts
reaching 20 to 25 miles per hour early this afternoon. Although relative humidity values will
hover in the lower 30s... fire weather concerns remain elevated this
afternoon across the region given the combination of warm and breezy
conditions. Please use good judgment and refrain from activities
that could spark a grass fire.
Tonight into Wednesday... calm winds overnight under mostly clear
skies will allow temperatures to dip near freezing... into the lower 30s
and upper 20s across much of the region. With the persistent eastern
trough slowly evolving over the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
an elongated surface trough will slide S/southeast across the plains through
Wednesday. Ahead of the trough... or front if you will... southwest
winds will increase off the Llano Estacado and West Texas plains
through midday. In response to the increased warm air advection... increased
afternoon highs... typically topping guidance across the region...
especially across west/SW Oklahoma and western North Texas. Highs could
easily approach 80 degrees in far western North Texas.
Fire weather Wednesday... the combination of warm and dry conditions
will result in elevated wildland fire conditions in the afternoon.
Relative humidity values will dip into the teens across much of far western
Oklahoma and western North Texas. Will hold off on a Fire Weather
Watch as winds are not forecast to reach criteria...sustained 20 miles per hour
or higher. However... as always... conditions will continue to be
Thursday into the weekend... behind the front... north surface winds
will bring more mild temperatures for Thursday... with highs in the 50s and
60s. A skosh warmer on Friday as a weak surface trough pushing in from
the north brings an increase in warm air advection with highs pushing the middle to
upper 60s for some. Moving into Saturday... expect cooler conditions
as the western trough begins to weaken and slide east/southeast over southern
New Mexico and The Trans Pecos.
Sunday... as a decent h500 short wave trough swings east/southeast across the
upper Mississippi Valley... a weak frontal boundary will set up...
along with a swath of low to middle level moisture return from the
Texas Gulf Coast across the arklatex and into central/eastern
Oklahoma. In response... long range guidance has continued to
support a slight chance of rain/showers...and warm air advection may result in a
narrow window for isolated thunder in the afternoon across south
central and southeastern Oklahoma.
Early next week... ridging will set up slowly through Monday over
the Rio Grande Valley into southern New Mexico... with mild temperatures
persisting across Oklahoma.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 29 72 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 31 72 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 32 77 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 25 77 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 25 66 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 33 67 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for okz011>031-033>042-044>046-050.
Texas...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for txz083>090.