Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
319 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015
weak cold front located just south of I-40 this morning will continue
to move slowly south toward the Red River by late this morning.
This front is expected to stall this afternoon and perhaps lift back
north across southwest Oklahoma as an area of surface low pressure
develops across southern Texas Panhandle. A dryline will stretch
south from this surface low southward across West Texas. These boundaries
will be the foci for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon
Models have shown a trend in developing precipitation a bit quicker
today as lift from the approaching upper low begins to influence
the area this afternoon. Increasing moisture and favorable wind fields
will support supercells capable of very large hail... especially
across southwest Oklahoma southward into North Texas. There will
also be a window of opportunity for a tornado or two in these
areas as well late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
We expect to see a general downward trend in severe potential as
we approach midnight as we lose our instability. However we will
transition to heavy rainfall that will likely linger through the
day on Monday into Monday night and early Tuesday before the
precipitation ends. The models have shown a slight shift further north
and east with the heaviest precipitation... but widespread 2 to 3 inch
amounts... with isolated 4 inch amounts are a likely scenario.
Contemplated Flood Watch... but due to these shifts in timing and
location... will hold off for now and let day shift see if these
issues resolve themselves with later model runs.
Beyond Tuesday... it still appears that we will see a much
quieter period with no additional precipitation chances and mild temperatures.
This will take US into the first weekend of may.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 78 55 59 48 / 20 80 80 70
Hobart OK 79 54 61 45 / 40 70 80 60
Wichita Falls Texas 85 57 65 49 / 40 70 70 60
gage OK 70 47 55 40 / 30 80 80 60
Ponca City OK 71 49 60 46 / 10 60 60 50
Durant OK 86 57 65 50 / 10 70 70 70