Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014
29/12z tafs...conditions will remain generally VFR through the period.
Some patchy MVFR fog possible early this morning...especially at sites which
had more rain overnight. Precipitation this morning has mainly moved east
of taf sites...but additional development of showers/thunderstorms expected
later today. Expect most of this to impact sites from North Texas/SW OK northeastward
into north central OK and will include thunderstorms and rain groups at those sites this afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CDT Friday Aug 29 2014/
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue early this
morning...mainly over central and eastern parts of the forecast area
although activity continues to slowly diminish. More showers and
thunderstorms expected to develop again later today and continue
into tonight as upper trough moves slowly eastward across the
central/Southern Plains. Activity may be more focused along weak
frontal boundary expected to be located from north central into
southwest OK by afternoon. Although organized severe storms are
unlikely...a few strong/marginally severe storms will be possible.
By Saturday...diminishing precipitation chances will be mainly in eastern
sections as the weakening upper trough continues to lift northeastward away
from the region.
Another upper trough moves eastward through the central/northern
rockies and into the plains early in the coming week. This will
bring thunderstorm chances back to northern OK as the associated
frontal boundary pushes southward to near the Kansas/OK border.
Dry and very warm weather returns areawide by midweek as the upper
level ridge begins to build over the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 89 70 92 71 / 50 40 20 10
Hobart OK 91 69 95 71 / 40 30 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 93 72 96 74 / 50 40 20 10
gage OK 89 64 94 69 / 20 10 10 10
Ponca City OK 88 69 91 72 / 60 30 10 10
Durant OK 92 72 92 72 / 50 50 30 10