Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
922 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014
updated precipitation/weather through 7am Sunday...
the remaining rainfall quickly dissipated and pushed to the east
through 9pm CST. Removed rain chances from the forecast across
southeastern/south central OK... but introduced a slight chance of
sprinkles and potentially some light drizzle through midnight...
with occasional sprinkles through sunrise for far south central
OK. Pulled back mention of fog to only south eastern OK. S/southeast
surface winds have remained elevated... and infrared Sat shows cloud
cover is not as abundant as guidance originally had. The recent
hrrr run has visibilities holding 4-10 miles across the region...
with a pocket of lower visible across southeastern OK. Confidence is not
high... but felt comfortable enough given the current observation trend to
remove patchy fog from northwestern OK. However... would not be surprised
of some highly isolated areas of 3-4mi patchy fog given surface
moisture and the decent inversion as visualized by the oun 00z
Previous discussion... /issued 500 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/
much of the rain will be east of the taf sites by the beginning
of the forecast. Exception may be law/Special Weather Statement where will keep
a mention for a couple more hours. Otherwise... abundant moisture
will likely lead to visibilities dropping to lower mfvr with
ceilings in the IFR Cat shortly after sunset. Should see improvement
in the southwest by morning as southwest low level winds develop
ahead of advancing cold front. This front will bring strong
northwest winds to the area during the day on Sunday with gusts of
30 to 35 kts. Most ceilings expected to be upper MVFR by afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/
heavy rainfall through this evening over western North Texas and
southern Oklahoma remains the biggest concern.
Latest radars indicated rain south of an Altus to Stillwater line
with the heaviest rain near an Archer City Texas to Wichita Falls
to Duncan line. Widespread one to three inches...if not locally
more...of rainfall has occurred across southern Oklahoma and
western North Texas.
Think an additional one to two inches of rainfall will continue
east of the line mention above...and south of Ada...through the
evening hours. Not sure how quickly rain will taper off west to
east this evening as middle/upper low over southwestern Texas has
been slow to move today. Localized urban/rural flooding can be
expected. Cannot rule out flash flooding as well...especially
where rainfall totals have already exceeded 2 inches today and
where rain rates exceed one inch per hour. Will continue to
monitor flooding potential...including rivers and streams in
these areas. Generally think these rains will ease drought
Rest of tonight...most rainfall should end by midnight...allowing
for a damp muggy and mild night. Some drizzle and fog will linger
over the area...though doubt fog will be as dense compared to
yesterday and earlier today across the area.
Sunday...winds will increase west to east through the day with the
passage of a cold front. Drier air will work into the area. Fog
may be a concern during the morning hours. It will become quite
windy by afternoon...especially over western Oklahoma and western
North Texas where gusts may exceed 40 miles per hour. For now...did not
issue a Wind Advisory due to some uncertainty on how much vertical
mixing will occur. Kept low chances for mainly afternoon rain
showers over northern Oklahoma where there may be enough lingering
moisture available for the development of low topped showers.
Sunday night through next Saturday...dry weather and near
seasonable temperatures...generally warmer than last week...can
be expected. With northwest middle/upper flow...precipitation chances
appear to be very limited. A few dry frontal passages will likely
occur at times.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 60 54 62 35 / 100 30 30 20
Hobart OK 61 49 62 34 / 50 10 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 62 52 66 38 / 100 40 0 0
gage OK 67 40 57 29 / 10 0 20 0
Ponca City OK 62 54 62 33 / 30 10 50 20
Durant OK 59 55 70 40 / 100 80 10 10