Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
626 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014
refer to the 00z aviation forecast below...
tricky aviation forecast this period...with ongoing showers and
storms from northern through central Oklahoma...and widespread
intermittent MVFR/IFR ceilings. Expect a front will continue to move
through all terminals...resulting in a northerly wind shift by
05z. Large area of rain showers will gradually move east overnight...with
at least one complex of thunderstorms and rain from central through east/southeast
Oklahoma from 00z through around 08z Thursday. Heavy rainfall with
the stronger storms may result in visibilities reduced to a mile or
less...especially from kokc/koun southeastward. While rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
should eventually move east of terminals by 06z...intermittent
MVFR/IFR ceilings will likely linger at all terminals through at least
12z Thursday. Gradual improvement in ceilings is then forecast by 18z.
Previous discussion... /issued 547 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/
adjusted rain chances this evening across the area.
band of heavy rain will affect central Oklahoma and
the Oklahoma City metropolitan area through 10 PM this evening.
Latest radar indicated a band of heavy rain from Hinton to
Kingfisher to Guthrie slowly moving south along a front. This
band will continue to push southeast this evening...bringing
1 to 2 inches of rainfall. This band may continue to slowly
push southeast throughout the night. Latest hrrr runs have been
hinting at this potential.
Flash Flood Watch is in good shape and will not alter at
Appears that the chances for additional storm development in
southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas may be decreasing
due to perhaps capping and some middle/upper level drying/subsidence
depicted in the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Cannot
completely rule out a few storms developing in these areas over
the next few hours...though confidence remain low.
Most...if not all...rain has ended in western Oklahoma and
perhaps western North Texas...especially west of an Alva
to Weatherford to Altus to Crowell line.
Will continue to update this evening as necessary.
Previous discussion... /issued 359 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 30 2014/
primary precipitation band continues to move east across northern
and central Oklahoma but are seeing redevelopment beginning across
southwest Oklahoma. Redevelopment will likely continue this
evening as surface front moves south and low level jet increases.
Coordinated with NESDIS and we agreed that there are some signals
of potentially heavy rainfall across south central and
southeastern Oklahoma overnight. Have expanded the Flash Flood
Watch to include Murray... Johnston... Coal and Atoka counties
where there is the best signal of the quantitative precipitation forecast axis is located. On the
other side... have cancelled the Flash Flood Watch across western
Oklahoma where heavy rainfall appears unlikely with the eastward
movement of this system. Some lingering precipitation will persist
southeast tomorrow before this system moves to the east. Precipitation
chances look low after tomorrow and temperatures will gradually
climb back to close to climatology values by early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 66 78 64 84 / 90 30 0 0
Hobart OK 64 79 63 85 / 40 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 68 79 66 86 / 40 20 10 0
gage OK 60 79 61 85 / 20 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 63 80 61 84 / 70 20 0 0
Durant OK 67 76 63 82 / 80 50 10 10
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for okz018>020-
Flash Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for okz012-013.