Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Norman OK
551 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015
29/00z taf aviation disc below.
IFR conditions expected to prevail most terminals with improvement
to MVFR areawide after 18z. MVFR conditions likely beginning of
forecast southwest Oklahoma and ksps but conditions expected to
deteriorate as next wave of light precipitation moves over region. Will
keep -ra dominate precipitation type koun/klaw/ksps with -fzra other
locations. Most of the precipitation is expected to fall over
areas above 32f/0c. Kokc will be right on the edge of the 32f/0c
line through the night. Northerly winds will continue to decrease
through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2015/
we have had to extend the winter weather headlines...again...as
the surface freezing line lingers within the area of expected
rainfall. We expect the freezing line to begin to progress back
east again this evening...although hopefully not as far as last
night. Forecast models are less than helpful with the forecast
position of the freezing line. With this in mind...we have
retained the advisories everywhere that has a significant chance
of freezing rain accumulation. We have retained the Ice Storm
Warning where the greatest chance of accumulating ice overlaps the
areas which have had the greatest effects of ice so
far...Caddo...Canadian...and Oklahoma counties...with emphasis on
western Oklahoma County.
As rainfall amounts are expected to be relatively modest overnight
into Sunday...we have canceled the flash Flood Advisory. Flooding
is still possible...particularly in normally flood-prone
areas...but flash flooding is improbable.
For tomorrow...warm air advection above the surface...and less
cold-air advection at the surface...plus whatever daytime heating
makes it through the cloud cover...should allow readings to climb
a few degrees above freezing over most of our forecast area. We
have selected noon as the expiration times for our
warning and advisory...as rainfall amounts in the subfreezing air
A continuing warming trend will last well into next week. Some
parts of central and western Oklahoma will have a slower warmup
for a day or two until the accumulated ice melts and water
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 30 37 34 47 / 80 60 40 20
Hobart OK 29 34 31 48 / 60 50 30 10
Wichita Falls Texas 32 40 35 53 / 80 70 20 10
gage OK 25 32 29 42 / 30 30 40 10
Ponca City OK 30 38 34 45 / 60 50 60 20
Durant OK 36 44 40 51 / 90 90 40 20
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for okz004>022-
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for okz023>025.
Texas...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for txz083>088.