Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Norman OK
234 PM CST Monday Feb 8 2016
critical fire weather concerns today remain the primary forecast
Currently... dew points will continue to struggle across western
Oklahoma... where mesonet and ASOS observation have consistently reported
dew points in the single digits to zero and negative single digits
in isolated locations. Combined with the gusty... 40 to 50 knots...
north/northwest winds... several hot spots continue to pop up on 3.9 infrared
indicating active fire activity this afternoon. As an aside...
impressed with mesoscale guidance... specifically the hrrr and
experimental hrrr/S handling of dew points this afternoon. Given
temperatures late this morning... was not anticipating dew points to reach
zero let alone negative values out west. A red flag warning will
remain in effect for areas of southwestern Oklahoma and western
North Texas through 6 PM...where conditions pose the greatest
concern. However... as indicated by 3.9 infrared activity today... fires
remain likely across most of the region. Many fires are
accidental... please use good judgment... refrain from performing
activities near or over grass that could easily spark a fire...
such as welding... dragging chains... using power tools... or
parking cars on grass. Also... keep your Butts in your car... do
not throw cigarette Butts out your window.
This evening through Tuesday... north/northwest winds will slowly relax through
sunset... remaining breezy through the evening toward midnight as
the surface high slides southward across the panhandles and the
eastern trough continues to wrap eastward along the Ohio Valley.
West/northwest winds will increase slightly Tuesday afternoon as a weak
surface trough slides S/southeast along the Llano Estacado. Expect gusts
near 20 miles per hour for a few hours in the afternoon.
Wednesday... increased afternoon highs across the region...
especially across southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas.
Confidence in increased downslope flow along the western High Plains
towards The Caprock will result in increased temperatures from the
panhandles into western and central Oklahoma. Highs could easily
reach the lower 70s in northern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma.
Thursday through the weekend... mild temperatures will continue on Thursday
into Friday as a surface trough slides S/southeast across the Southern Plains
in response to a subtle h500 short wave. With the shifting of the
upper ridge towards The Rockies into Saturday... an area of surface
high pressure will slide southward along the upper Missouri Valley
toward the Ozarks... allowing cooler temperatures to settle in across the
area. Temperatures will rebound slightly on Sunday... as S/SW winds
gradually increase. Presently... expect gusts around 20 to 25 miles per hour
and highs in the 50s. Therefore... will need to keep an eye on next
weekend for another round of potential fire weather concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 29 54 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 30 60 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 30 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 27 57 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 27 49 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 32 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz005>008-010>013-
Red flag warning until 6 PM CST this evening for okz021-022-
Texas...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for txz086-089-090.
Red flag warning until 6 PM CST this evening for txz083>090.