Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014

Aviation...
06z tafs...
middle-level clouds across North Texas should spread
northward overnight early Wednesday. Otherwise breezy
south winds will prevail with VFR conditions.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 932 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/

Discussion...
we reduced rain chances earlier this evening as it became more
apparent that ingredients needed for storms would not be able to
overcome the negative factors over the great majority of our
forecast area. We have further reduced those chances with this
latest update...low enough that there should be no mention of rain
in text forecasts for tonight. The rest of the forecast still
looks good.

Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/

Aviation...
00z tafs...
VFR conditions will prevail. Southerly winds will diminish some
this evening but will increase overnight into Wednesday as the
gradient tightens.

Previous discussion... /issued 244 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 19 2014/

Discussion...
a weak upper low will drift northward late this afternoon into
tonight...generating widely scattered showers and storms across
mainly southern Oklahoma and North Texas. A stray storm or two may
occur almost anywhere along and south of Interstate 40...but
confidence is rather low. Given last nights somewhat unexpected
convective complex...will maintain at least a mention of
showers/storms over much of the area through the evening hours.
Conditions do not appear as favorable for severe winds and hail
today as yesterday...but heavy rainfall...small hail...and gusty
winds may occur with stronger storms.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend...strengthening
middle level ridging should keep most areas dry. Again...a stray
storm or two is not totally out of the question...but coverage
will be too slim to include any mentionable probability of precipitation through at least
Saturday. Temperatures will also be on the rise...as 850mb temperatures
creep up...and southwesterly surface winds develop each day. This
should keep US rather hot and muggy into the weekend. Heat indices
of 98 to 104 degrees will be common most days.

Long range guidance continues to suggest a weak front may move
into the Southern Plains during the middle to latter part of next
week. However...the trend has been to slow this frontal
passage...and maintain Summer ridging for a longer period over the
southeast U.S. For now...will maintain seasonably hot and muggy
weather pattern through the extended period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 75 96 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
Hobart OK 72 100 74 99 / 10 10 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 75 101 76 100 / 10 0 10 10
gage OK 71 99 75 99 / 10 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 74 97 76 98 / 10 0 10 10
Durant OK 75 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 10

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations