Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014
see aviation discussion below
main concern for the next few hours is the widespread showers
with isolated ts across the southern Texas Panhandle and moving
into western North Texas, which could spread far enough to the
east to affect terminal ksps. For now, a tempo is in effect at
ksps. Otherwise, all remaining taf sites should remain dry and
under VFR conditions for the remainder of the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 1049 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/
showers/isolated storms behind an outflow boundary from
overnight/early morning convection... continues to affect parts of
the forecast area this morning. This activity is expected to decrease into
early this afternoon. Additional activity could develop along the
boundary... especially if it slow Downs and stalls... this
afternoon. Otherwise... the best chance for rain/storms will
remain in far southwest parts of the forecast area where area of
showers/storms continues to move across parts of west and North Texas.
Also adjusted temperatures some due to the clouds/rain/cooler air east of
the outflow boundary. However... skies will clear in some areas
and should warm up quickly when sun comes out. Updates out soon.
Previous discussion... /issued 620 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/
area of convection over northeast Oklahoma is mainly building
southward. However...some showers/storms developing on outflow and
this may result in showers/storms near pnc and perhaps okc/oun.
Outflow associated with convection is rather deep...5k feet per
kinx vwp...and this should reach okc/oun around 14-15z. Area of
rain in West Texas should remain south of hbr/law/sps.
After this afternoon...southerly winds will prevail with VFR
Previous discussion... /issued 329 am CDT Thursday Sep 18 2014/
elevated convection across northern/eastern Kansas developed
earlier along an 800 mb Theta-E gradient per rap13. Winds should
continue to veer some across northern Oklahoma and weaken into the
morning. Expect most of the convection will impact eastern
Oklahoma through the morning. Outflow/propagation may result in a
few storms skirting north central and perhaps counties east of a
Seminole to Lake Texoma line.
Another area of precipitation has developed in the Texas
Panhandle within an area of weak convergence and better middle-level
moisture. This should gradually shift southward this morning...but
still may bring some rain to western North Texas.
Uncertainties remain with remnants of Odile. Have trended with
the ec this morning which moves remnants into mean ridge position
with little or no handoff into faster flow this weekend. This may
shift better chances for heavy rain into western/southwest
Oklahoma and North Texas where rain is needed.
Will keep slight/chance probability of precipitation into early next week to account for
cutoff low that lifts/opens northeast from Southern California.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 88 69 87 70 / 60 10 10 20
Hobart OK 88 69 86 70 / 30 10 20 50
Wichita Falls Texas 88 70 88 71 / 40 20 30 20
gage OK 91 67 85 69 / 10 10 20 50
Ponca City OK 88 69 88 70 / 30 10 10 10
Durant OK 87 70 88 71 / 50 10 10 0