Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1045 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below.
VFR conditions and clear skies are expected to continue.
Winds will increase 13-17z across the area with some gusts 20-25
knots from the west or northwest. Winds will then diminish around
/issued 239 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015/
strong winds expected to quickly subside early between 5 and 7 PM
today. We have extended the Wind Advisory another hour...until
5pm. Even though temperatures and relative humidity have not reached red flag levels
the wind has and will continue to contribute to difficult
containment of any fires that get started. Brief stretch of much
warmer weather will commence tomorrow and last through Wednesday.
Very warm temperatures and low humidities through this time period
will keep wildfire dangers elevated...but thankfully it looks as
though today will be by far the windiest day...although some
gustiness is expected Wednesday. In addition to the wildfire
concerns...we expect a few daytime high records to be tied or
broken especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool down Wednesday
night and Thursday with strong northerly winds behind cold front.
Precipitation chances will continue Friday through Saturday night.
Medium range models differ a bit on duration and intensity of
precipitation. GFS consistently the wetter model...bringing rain in
quicker and keeping it around longer. But it is also the warmer
model. Ecm is beginning to trend toward the wetter GFS with most of
the precipitation near and south of the Red River. The ecm does
bring in reinforcing cold air late Saturday which would allow a
change over to more of a wintry event before precipitation ends. We
will leave a mention of snow in forecast for western and northern
parts of Oklahoma due to the uncertainty and consistency. Event is
still quite a ways out there in time...but trends would support most
of the precipitation to be seen over far southern Oklahoma and
western North Texas in liquid form. Stay tuned.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 32 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 32 71 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 33 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 31 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 24 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 34 67 41 71 / 0 0 0 0