Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 PM CST sun Dec 21 2014
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
confidence remains low through 18z...then is high afterwards.
Overall...did not make too many changes to the previous tafs.
Ongoing MVFR and lower conditions will generally stick around
until a surface trough moves through the area. The lowest
conditions will likely be over western Oklahoma 02-08z...and
perhaps near kokc...koun...and kpnc 09-15z. Doubt conditions
will worsen to Airport minimums except kgag.
For klaw and ksps...these sites have the lowest confidence.
IFR or lower conditions are possible at these sites as well
through 13z...but did not mention to much uncertainty.
-Dz will end near kokc...koun...and kpnc by 02z. A few -shra may
move across northern Oklahoma 08-16z...but did not mention in tafs
as coverage should be too sparse.
A surface trough will bring gusty northwest winds and improving
conditions. This trough will reach northwestern Oklahoma around
08z...ksps and klaw 11-13z...kokc around 15z...and kpnc around
17z. All sites are expected to become VFR by 18z.
Previous discussion... /issued 256 PM CST sun Dec 21 2014/
drizzle has developed the past hour or so across central portions
of Oklahoma and will likely continue well into the evening before
shifting to the north and east of County Warning Area. Cold front expected to
enter northwest Oklahoma late tonight and progress quickly over
the region tomorrow morning. This will help scour out the
persistent low clouds and fog...but we will have to deal with fair
amount of middle and high level cloud cover through Tuesday. As far
as precipitation associated with the front and large upper trough
that will skirt the region...most of any precipitation will be over
northern Texas and far southern Oklahoma late Monday into early
Tuesday as strong jet rounds base of trough and interacts with
elevated frontal surface. Cold core signal being forecasted to affect
far northwest Oklahoma Tuesday in the form of very light showers
possibly mixed with or changing to light snow. We will mention a
chance of sprinkles or flurries. WRF most aggressive with this
activity...and very likely overdone. Ecm keeps precipitation up in
Kansas with the GFS in between.
Other than the small areas of light precipitation...winds and temperatures will
be the main sensible impacts next several days...along with a
majority of the region getting to see the sun. Breezy tomorrow
mainly northern Oklahoma behind the front. Cool with strong
northwest winds expected again Tuesday...followed by warmer with
gusty southwest winds Christmas day. Back to cooler and gusty
north winds Friday. Chances for appreciable sunshine will increase
Wednesday into next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 42 57 36 45 / 10 10 10 10
Hobart OK 38 58 35 46 / 10 0 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 42 62 39 50 / 10 0 20 10
gage OK 35 54 31 41 / 10 0 10 10
Ponca City OK 42 54 33 44 / 20 10 10 10
Durant OK 45 60 41 51 / 10 10 20 20