Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1036 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015
updated morning probability of precipitation to account for current radar trends confining
highest probability of precipitation to the southeast. Still have mixed signals on storm
redevelopment for this afternoon from the numeric models... but
convective inhibition is relatively low and decreasing and
boundaries remain in the area... so will continue to lean toward
higher chances of afternoon storms.
Previous discussion... /issued 647 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/
03/12z taf discussion below.
IFR conditions will be seen across west-central and northwest
Oklahoma terminals for the first few hours of forecast. Will be
more scattered across central Oklahoma. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected to stay
south and east of terminals. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected
to dominate forecast. Additional storms will be possible near and
north of a stalled frontal boundary. Will include prob30 thunderstorms and rain for
all but northern Oklahoma terminals but will hold off until after
00z for mention.
Previous discussion... /issued 458 am CDT Friday Jul 3 2015/
substantial rain totals over the next several days will be the
primary concerns this forecast package. Widespread 1 to 3 inch
rain totals were realized last evening and overnight across
western Major County and also over much of the okc metropolitan.
Although there have not been any official rain measurements
received...totals of 5 to 6 inches not out of the question just
south of Guthrie down into central/eastern portions of Edmond. As
each day evolves...the number of these small areas of high rain
totals will increase...resulting in an increase river and
Reservoir flood issue by the middle of next week. Highest rain
totals over the week are currently expected across northern
portions of Oklahoma...although the rain seen the past 12 hours
would tend to spread this potential down into central and perhaps
southeast parts of Oklahoma.
Surface frontal boundary beginning to stall across the Red River
valley of southern Oklahoma early this morning. Modest veered low level jet
continues to generate showers and a few storms across central
Oklahoma and this trend is expected to continue and shift slowly
southeast through the morning hours. Potential is there for a
mostly rain-free period late this morning through middle-afternoon
before additional convective development occurs near and just
north of mentioned stalled front as series of shortwave troughs move
through Central Plains and destabilization occurs. Could be a busy
late afternoon/evening across far south-central and southeast
Oklahoma. A few severe storms will be possible with downburst wind
gusts and marginally severe hail the primary impacts. Heavy rain
potential will also be a concern...which was realized across okc
metropolitan last evening and early this morning.
As another shortwave trough moves toward region late Saturday...chances
will exist for storms to develop north and west of Oklahoma and
move toward instability axis across northeast half of Oklahoma
Saturday night and Sunday. High rain totals appear possible mainly
over north-central Oklahoma at this time.
Longwave trough forecasted to rotate through northern/Central Plains
late Sunday and Monday...allowing another frontal boundary to
affect the region. All models forecast convection near this
frontal boundary late Sunday night through Tuesday as it tries to
progress slowly south over Oklahoma into northern Texas.
Additional storm chances will occur Wednesday mainly across
northern Oklahoma as this front lifts back north. Middle-upper level
ridge then forecasted to build over Southern Plains late next week into
next weekend yielding hot and humid conditions.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 71 89 73 90 / 30 30 30 20
Hobart OK 70 92 73 94 / 40 30 20 10
Wichita Falls Texas 73 93 75 95 / 40 20 10 10
gage OK 67 91 72 93 / 20 30 30 10
Ponca City OK 68 89 73 90 / 20 10 50 40
Durant OK 71 90 73 89 / 60 40 30 20