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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Norman OK
556 am CST sun Nov 23 2014

Aviation...
23/12z...IFR/LIFR conditions will be seen across west-central and
central Oklahoma terminals early this morning. Will raise/clear
ceilings across southwest and central Oklahoma terminals in the first
few hours of forecast given satellite and observation
trends...although model forecasts beg to differ. Improvement is
expected prefrontal as winds veer and increase. Post frontal
clouds expected mainly across northern half of Oklahoma with
primarily VFR-MVFR ceilings this afternoon. Scattered showers will be
possible mainly northern Oklahoma this afternoon with MVFR
restrictions possible. Winds will be quite strong from the
northwest following frontal passage until this evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 413 am CST sun Nov 23 2014/

Discussion...
several short-term issues...first of which will be areas of dense
fog across south-central Oklahoma and portions of western North
Texas. Visibilities have been down in the 1/4-1/2 mile range much
of the night from around Wichita Falls and Lawton over toward
Duncan and Chickasha. Issued a dense fog advisory earlier this
morning based on observation and short-term model output. This advisory
was trimmed down and looking at trends of observation...advisory may need
to be cancelled early. Secondly...we expect fairly strong winds
late this morning through the afternoon with very tight pressure
gradient forecasted by all models as surface cyclone intensifies ahead
of incoming upper trough and cold front surges south over region.
Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the County Warning Area. Tight gradient
and zone of stronger cold air advection forecasted to shift to the south and east of
County Warning Area by 00z so thinking is that winds will subside fairly quickly
this evening.

Numerous frontal passages through the week...but most will yield
little change to day-to-day temperatures. Medium range GFS and ecm
continue to show significant differences in sensible weather
Friday into the weekend. Ecm forecasting more progressive and
higher amplitude longwave trough moving through northern plains
late in the week. This helps to drive stronger cold front into
region late Thursday and Friday. This is also supported by the
Canadian forecasts. Newest round of initializations yield gridded
forecast not far from previous forecast...closer to the consensus
of ecm and Gem with a cooler and dry Friday/Saturday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 61 34 56 32 / 30 20 0 0
Hobart OK 61 32 56 30 / 20 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 67 36 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 53 26 54 23 / 40 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 61 33 52 28 / 60 40 0 0
Durant OK 71 39 58 36 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
okz005>008-011>013-017>020-023>030-038>041-044>046-050.

Wind Advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for okz004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.

Texas...Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
txz086-089-090.

Wind Advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for txz083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

25/11

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