Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
615 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014
28/12z tafs...scattered showers/thunderstorms continue from west central OK into
North Texas. Will keep tempo thunderstorms and rain groups at SW OK sites and ksps for the
first few hours. Expect storms to dissipate later this morning with
VFR conditions expected areawide. More thunderstorms possible late in the period
affecting northwest OK sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/
front has pushed south of the forecast area this morning with cooler airmass
filtering in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms which developed
around midnight continue from west central into southeast OK early this
morning and appear to be roughly aligned with elevated frontal
boundary pushing southward into southern OK. Expect showers/thunderstorms to
continue through the early morning hours then gradually diminish
as boundary pushes south of the area.
Northwesterly flow aloft will persist with more showers and thunderstorms
possible tonight...mainly western areas. More widespread rain and
thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a more
pronounced short wave trough approaches from the central rockies.
Increasing warm air advection ahead of this feature will enhance precipitation
development. Models have been fairly consistent with this trend
and show reasonable agreement with axis of heaviest precipitation
across parts of northern/central OK. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Main area of rain/thunderstorms will gradually shift southeastward late
Wednesday/Wednesday night then taper off on Thursday as the short wave
trough moves through.
Drier weather is expected later in the week with temperatures
remaining below seasonal averages as northwesterly upper flow
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 89 68 87 67 / 20 10 40 60
Hobart OK 90 68 84 66 / 60 30 50 50
Wichita Falls Texas 90 70 89 70 / 50 30 40 40
gage OK 87 67 80 64 / 40 30 60 80
Ponca City OK 87 65 85 66 / 0 0 30 60
Durant OK 93 69 92 70 / 50 10 20 30