Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

busy forecast through this weekend...with severe storms likely
today/tonight...Saturday...and perhaps Sunday.

Dryline is currently located east of Amarillo southward to near
Big Spring Texas. Cumulus field becoming more enhanced near Snyder Texas
now...and expect initial deep convection there where current
mesoscale analysis indicates highest instability and lowest cin along
the dryline. Additional cumulus can be seen just east and NE of Ama as
well. Will keep this discussion short since at least a severe
watch will likely be issued very soon for western OK/North Texas. Main
threat (large hail near tennis balls and damaging winds over 70
mph) will remain there through the early evening and then perhaps
shift eastward into central OK during the late evening hours
(smaller hail but still a damaging wind threat). Probability of precipitation should
quickly decrease early tomorrow morning as cold front pushes
through the area. Expect some fairly strong winds (25 to 35 mph)
behind the front so an advisory may eventually be needed.

Not much going on by Thursday afternoon/evening as winds begin to
decrease with onset of surface high. By Friday afternoon/evening another Lee
low will develop near southeast Colorado and moisture will start to return
under the influence of south-southeast flow. Diffuse dryline may setup along
Texas Panhandle/OK border...but will leave any mention of thunder out
for now as shortwave ridging moves overhead. Low probability of precipitation may need to
be introduced near SW OK/west North Texas where cap may erode and enough
surface convergence could provide lift for a couple of storms to
develop. By Saturday morning a potent upper trough will move into
the socal region...and then to near or just west of the 4 corners
by 00z sun. Expect surface dewpoints to make it into the low to middle
60s ahead of this feature late Sat afternoon. Rapid height falls
through Saturday evening...plenty of instability...and sufficient
deep layer shear will likely result in a more significant severe
weather threat along and west of i35. The threat will then shift
eastward Sunday afternoon and evening with the closed low with
most of the coverage just east of our forecast area. However...will keep chance
probability of precipitation in for the eastern zones Sunday as the European model (ecmwf) and gemnh
solutions are slower.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 63 78 52 84 / 60 10 0 0
Hobart OK 59 80 50 86 / 60 0 0 10
Wichita Falls Texas 64 82 54 86 / 50 10 0 0
gage OK 55 76 49 86 / 40 0 0 10
Ponca City OK 62 78 50 85 / 60 20 0 0
Durant OK 65 80 54 83 / 40 20 10 0


Oun watches/warnings/advisories...