Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015
6z tafs...a few high clouds from convection over the High
Plains...may spread over western Oklahoma tonight. Otherwise...
VFR conditions and a south wind can be expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 656 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/
VFR conditions and a south wind will prevail through 00z
Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Monday Aug 31 2015/
a weak upper low continues to spin across southeast Oklahoma.
Although latest rap & hrrr runs keep it inactive there, water
vapor imagery continues to show a slight midlevel circulation,
enough to maintain low thunderstorms and rain probability of precipitation there until this evening.
Otherwise, an upper ridge is expected to build through much of the
week, keeping US dry and maintaining seasonably normal
temperatures. However, the European model (ecmwf) solution suggest a short wave
disturbance digging across far northwest Oklahoma for Thursday
night. For now, will be keeping any probability of precipitation out of there, mainly due
to uncertainty of moisture availability.
A much deeper trough will be digging across the northern U.S.
During the weekend, which will be pushing a cold front into our
area beginning for Monday. At this point, both long range models
hint a Pacific based midlevel moisture plume, originating from the
Gulf of California, extending into northwest Oklahoma beginning
Sunday. With the cold front approaching near the time period, it
would certainly not rule out low thunderstorms and rain probability of precipitation in our northwest for
the Sunday through Monday time frame.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 71 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 70 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 72 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 0
Ponca City OK 71 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 71 94 71 94 / 10 10 10 0