Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1123 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
the 18z aviation discussion follows....
a large area of clouds with bases around 3000 feet will affect east
OK...including kpnc...for a few hours early this afternoon.
Otherwise...winds should decrease this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient and cold air advection decrease. Toward
sunset...vertical mixing will also diminish...leaving light north
breezes overnight. Winds will veer slowly to NE by morning...and
further veering to east or southeast is expected late in the morning or
early afternoon at most sites. Wind speeds will be quite
Previous discussion... /issued 1022 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
cooler air and brisk north winds have arrived in Oklahoma/North
Texas this morning. Wind speeds will be near advisory levels
today...with occasional gusts around 40 miles per hour...and temperatures
will struggle to climb a few more degrees today.
The only changes to the forecast this morning are minor
adjustments to temperatures and related elements to account for
the latest trends.
Previous discussion... /issued 518 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
12z tafs... VFR conditions most locations for the taf period. The
exception in kpnc where MVFR ceilings will be possible this
morning. Breezy winds today with wind speeds decreasing later this
afternoon and evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 333 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
the cool down begins today with highs 20 to 25 degrees cooler
than yesterday. Breezy north to northwest winds are expected today but wind
speeds will decrease later today/tonight as surface high settles into
the region. The cooler temperatures continue Friday into the weekend.
Models show an upper low moving across California and Arizona into Mexico Friday
into the weekend with then a shortwave moving across the central
U.S. Over the weekend. These two systems will bring a chance of
precipitation to the forecast area starting Friday afternoon in western portions of
the County Warning Area and spreading across the forecast area. Chances will continue through
Sunday with the best chance Saturday/Saturday night. Rain will be
predominate over the area except for maybe portions of northern OK
where winter precipitation will be possible. The best chance for
winter precipitation will be Sunday. Models show a cold front moving across
the region Sunday bringing colder air to the area. When/where/how
much/what winter precipitation will occur is dependent on the timing of
this cold air at the surface and the timing/path of the shortwave this
weekend which will bring colder air aloft. Currently the models
differ on these conditions for the front and shortwave with the GFS
the quickest with the front and has the path of the shortwave
further southwest which would lead to the best chance for winter
precipitation. However... with the differences in the models there is still
some uncertainty for later this weekend. Right now it looks like
some light accumulations of snow may be possible in parts of
northern OK. Otherwise... decent rainfall will affect the forecast area with
the highest amounts expected in southern parts of the forecast area.
After the weekend... the forecast remains dry with temperatures
around normal for this time of year by the middle of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 54 29 48 36 / 0 0 0 40
Hobart OK 56 30 48 35 / 0 0 10 50
Wichita Falls Texas 60 33 50 38 / 0 0 10 40
gage OK 53 25 46 32 / 0 0 20 70
Ponca City OK 51 25 47 34 / 0 0 0 40
Durant OK 61 36 52 38 / 0 0 0 20