Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1240 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014
southerly winds will prevail through 12z Wednesday. After
12z...winds may shift to a light northerly direction as a weak
front moves into north Central/Northeast Oklahoma. Precipitation
chances will remain very low...but an increase in cirrus is
possible this evening and overnight with "nearby" storms northeast
Previous discussion... /issued 640 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
Aviation... 12z taf issuance...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
However... a few sites may flirt with 5 or 6sm br through sunrise.
Previous discussion... /issued 323 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014/
primary forecast concern remains focused on the hot and humid
conditions through the weekend.
Currently... broad ridging remains in place across the central and
Southern Plains this morning. Per WV imagery this am... the primary ridge
axis remains elongated SW/NE... from eastern nm through the middle-
Mississippi Valley. A weak short wave last evening riding the ridge
resulted in a narrow axis of lift across the panhandles into southwestern
Kansas... sparking numerous thunderstorms across southeastern Kansas and the
panhandles. This activity slowly decreased through the early morning
hours... with only light returns left on radar across the eastern OK ph
through 07z. Meanwhile... south/along the Arbuckles... areas of
light fog have developed within a region of light surface winds. Given
dewpoints in the 70s... wouldn't be surprised by patchy light fog... with
limited impacts to the morning commute. Overall... just a warm and
For today... made no changes to the current heat advisory.... which
starts at 17z/noon for much of central and southern OK and western North Texas...
continuing through 00z/7pm CDT Wednesday. Made only minor adjustments to
temperatures this aftn-Thu... still expecting highs in the middle/upper 90s-
100s across the region. Dewpoints/humidity will be the primary driver for
heat indices. Dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will push heat indices to 105
and potentially higher this afternoon and tmrw. Will hold off for now...
but the heat advection will likely need to be extended through Friday. S/SW
flow in the middle-levels picks up Thu-Fri... with h850 temperatures across western
OK and western North Texas pushing 25-29 c by Friday afternoon. In response... bumped
up highs across western North Texas and western OK into the low-middle 100s.
Kept slight chance for thunder Wednesday-early Thursday as a weak boundary slides
S/southeast across eastern OK. Kept chances constrained east of I-35... as the
capping inversion will be tough to overcome across the western half of
OK. Expect only isolated showers/thunder... with chances sliding S/southeast
through Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend... with
broad h500 ridging holding in place across much of the Continental U.S. Into
sun. After which... long range guidance continues to build the western
ridge as a Stout h500 trough digs out of sk/mb into the boundary
waters and Great Lakes. In response... an elongated boundary will
sweep across the plains late sun-Monday bringing another chance for
isolated thunder. Behind this system... it looks like another cool
down... with highs in the 80s by Tuesday-Wednesday as the plains remain
sandwiched between western ridging and eastern troughing.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 74 98 73 95 / 0 10 10 0
Hobart OK 74 103 73 99 / 0 0 10 0
Wichita Falls Texas 75 102 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
gage OK 69 100 70 97 / 0 0 10 0
Ponca City OK 75 97 72 92 / 0 20 10 0
Durant OK 75 99 74 96 / 0 20 20 20
OK...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for okz006>008-011>031-
Texas...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for txz083>090.