Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015
aviation discussion for the 12z tafs is below.
overall...VFR conditions are expected.
Some MVFR...perhaps IFR...conditions may affect kwwr and kgag
Isolated-scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will be over the area for the next 24 hours.
Only included thunderstorms in the vicinity and vcsh near kokc and koun through 16-17z
where confidence of occurrence is higher. Pinpointing where and
when rain showers/thunderstorms and rain occur remains very tricky and challenging...so did
not mention in many tafs as coverage should be low. Brief MVFR or
lower conditions and variable gusty winds are possible with
Previous discussion... /issued 309 am CDT Friday Jul 31 2015/
the main concern is determining rain chances over the next
Overall...lowered rain chances over the next several days based
on latest model guidance. The combination of weak shear and weak
forcing as well as decent capping should keep rain chances on the
low side in most locations.
Today will not be as hot in many locations with more cloud
cover...but will be humid with surface dewpoints mainly in the
lower to middle 70s. Kept 20 percent across the entire area. Its
quite difficult to pinpoint where and when storms will occur
today. Latest hrrr runs suggest a few storms will be near I-40
this morning and mainly across southern Oklahoma and North Texas
this afternoon. Coverage should be sparse without a significant
trigger for lift. Storms will be pulse and generally short lived in
nature...but could produce locally heavy rainfall over an inch in
a short period of time. Severe potential remains low today.
Increased highs today from the previous forecast due to low
coverage of storms.
Tonight through Sunday night...a few storms may linger mainly
over far western Oklahoma and far western North Texas...which may
produce some localized heavy rainfall. Severe potential remains
very low. Otherwise...mainly rainfree conditions will occur. Highs
on Saturday and Sunday should remain slightly below average in
many areas except possibly far southern Oklahoma and North Texas
where more sun is forecast.
Monday through Thursday...generally typical summertime heat is
forecast. Low chances for rain and storms may occur mainly over
northern Oklahoma...but confidence of rain is decreasing as
latest models have been trending stronger with middle/upper ridging
and capping over the area. This would yield higher temperatures
as well. Would not be surprised if heat advisories were necessary
sometime during this time frame.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 91 71 91 71 / 20 10 10 20
Hobart OK 94 71 89 70 / 20 30 30 20
Wichita Falls Texas 96 74 96 73 / 20 20 20 20
gage OK 88 68 86 67 / 20 20 20 30
Ponca City OK 91 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 20
Durant OK 96 73 97 73 / 20 10 10 10