Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1238 am CDT sun Mar 29 2015
a cold front will move into northwest Oklahoma shortly after
sunrise Sunday. By middle afternoon...the front will clear all taf
sites (sps). Rather strong wind gusts (30-35 kts will develop
behind the front for a few hours...especially northwest and west
central Oklahoma. Mainly VFR conditions are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 642 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
primarily VFR conditions with winds shifting from southerly to
strong northerly. Could see MVFR visibility and ceilings from kpnc down
through kokc/koun from around 09-12z until frontal passage with moisture
increase. Ceilings will be mentioned at kpnc with light fog kokc/koun.
Strong northerly winds expected after frontal passage with VFR conditions.
Previous discussion... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/
several fronts this week will bring wind shifts and chances for
rain, but the warm airmasses will stay in Oklahoma until Thursday.
The first front tomorrow will bring gusty northwest winds and
increased fire danger to western Oklahoma. Relative humidity may
just lower to 20 percent, so a Fire Weather Watch is effective
there tomorrow afternoon. This front is expected to stall tomorrow
night near or south of the Red River. This will be the weather
maker Monday and Tuesday. On Monday weak northwest flow aloft is
expected to impinge on weak southerly winds at the surface for
modest vertical shear. Thunderstorms are possible along and north
of the front in southeast Oklahoma later Monday. A better chance
for thunderstorms comes Tuesday when slightly stronger middle-level
flow is across the area and the front has moved north into more of
Oklahoma. Southern and central Oklahoma have the best chance for
rain. The next front comes Thursday followed by a second, stronger
one Friday. The one on Friday finally brings cooler, more
seasonable weather. A chance for thunderstorms will come with this
front especially in south central and southeast Oklahoma. Middle-
level flow and vertical shear is stronger this day which may lead
to stronger thunderstorms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 49 72 56 76 / 0 0 30 30
Hobart OK 47 72 53 78 / 0 0 10 30
Wichita Falls Texas 54 74 57 78 / 0 10 20 40
gage OK 40 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 20
Ponca City OK 42 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 20
Durant OK 56 70 58 72 / 20 10 30 40
OK...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
Texas...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for